DeltaT13 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 4 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Better start thinking about a row boat soon b55ecause with the amount of rain coming, we may need one! Rain from Friday Night straight through to Wednesday, lol. I guess Tuesdays event has changed to rain on most guidance so the snow that we all get today and tonight will be all gone by Wednesday afternoon. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Friday looks dry, Saturday looks dry until late evening, some scattered showers overnight, and then Sunday looks dry all day. What am I missing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Lots of lightning E/SE of Ontario. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Phillifan22 said: Lots of lightning E/SE of Ontario. . That’s up in Wolfie territory and moving towards me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Thunder a definite possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 27 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: What is going on in here? So much doom and gloom. The start to winter has been early and strong, not sure what y'all are complaining about. The way I see it almost everything we have gotten so far is straight bonus snow. Many years I would still be waiting on my first real coating or inch of snow on this date. Just a few years back Buffalo didn't even get its first measurable snow until after Christmas. It could be much worse! Additionally, that arctic front looks viscous. Wouldn't be surprised if someone heard a rumble of thunder in it. The NWS is dropping snow squall warnings for it. Lake Erie has a finite amount of thermal energy that is exhausted part way through met winter. On average, it hits 32F in the first week of February, and the closer it gets to freezing the lower the delta-t values. So a cold, unproductive November is bad news for Buffalo snowfall. The "squall" line is coming through here now. Light snow, small flakes, visibility for miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Right in the thick of the band, pouring snow, some graupel mixing in from time to time.. May be able to squeeze out a 1/2’ total with some scraps tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Here’s our “squall” line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Right in the thick of the band, pouring snow, some graupel mixing in from time to time.. May be able to squeeze out a 1/2’ total with some scraps tonight.. What's this snow you speak of??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS BINGHAMTON NY 954 AM EST WED NOV 21 2018 NYC053-065-067-211611- /O.NEW.KBGM.SQ.W.0007.181121T1454Z-181121T1600Z/ 954 AM EST WED NOV 21 2018 Madison County-Oneida County-Onondaga County- The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Central Oneida County in central New York... Northwestern Madison County in central New York... Northeastern Onondaga County in central New York... * Until 1100 AM EST. * At 954 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from Fulton to near Lowville, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Whiteout conditions. Zero visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 30 mph. A quick inch or so of snow could fall in less than 30 minutes. A brief rumble can not be ruled out as well. SOURCE...Radar and webcams. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. Locations impacted include... Clay, Rome, Cicero, Oneida, North Syracuse, Lee, Vienna, Minoa, Phoenix and Camden. This includes the following highway exits... Interstate 90 near 34A. New York Interstate 81 between 28 and 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 As predicted, the squall line has fallen off the lake and weakening has commenced. It’s over Parish right now, about 13 miles north of me, and it will probably be just flurries when it reaches Brewerton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Emergency broadcast system just broke in for squall in ROC. I was at DMV and every cell in the place went off. I was sure it was the end. Its snowing hard but really??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Line is not as intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 As alluded to earlier, a little spike in temps ahead of the front.. Most of the county was sitting in the 20’s a few hours ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 I agree it's weakening , which is understandable, but it's also expanding so whatever we lose in intensity we'll gain in longevity, cause the the band is sticking around longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I agree it's weakening , which is understandable, but it's also expanding so whatever we lose in intensity we'll gain in longevity, cause the the band is sticking around longer. We’re about to get into it! Snow is picking up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Pouring snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Tonight will become bitterly cold with lingering lake effect snow showers. 850mb temperatures will fall to around -20C, but moisture will be very limited. As a result, QPF consensus of model guidance is limited, with the greatest amounts south of Lake Ontario where there is the longest fetch and potentially brief a Georgian Bay connection. Additional snowfall amounts should mainly be light, but considering the fluff factor localized accumulations of a few inches cannot be ruled out even though many areas will remain snow- free. Cooling will mainly be through advection with lingering lake effect clouds, but even so temperatures will fall into the single digits to mid-teens. A late clearing should allow for even lower temperatures east of Lake Ontario where some below zero readings are possible. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long awaited warm-up will arrive this weekend with several days of near or a little above normal temperatures as the pattern across North America temporarily re-aligns, with a trough focusing on the Northern Plains and forcing downstream height rises across the east. A deep shortwave will cross the region Saturday and Saturday night on the leading edge of the warm-up, producing periods of showers. Warm advection ramps up well ahead of the precip, so this should be all rain by the time it arrives later Saturday morning. The rain will taper off from west to east later Saturday night and Sunday morning as the system moves into New England. Weak high pressure will then bring a mainly dry Sunday. High temperatures will be in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday, with overnight lows Saturday night staying above freezing. Another potent Pacific shortwave will emerge onto the Central Plains by early Sunday morning, with the resulting system moving into the Ohio valley and eastern Great Lakes by Monday. This will bring increasing rain chances to our region later Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures will continue to be warm enough through Monday to support all rain at the surface. This system is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF, and most of their ensembles, to evolve into a closed low over the Northeast States By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This will keep unsettled weather across our region, with colder air filtering back into the Great Lakes and forcing rain to mix with and change to wet snow by later Monday night and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Friday looks dry, Saturday looks dry until late evening, some scattered showers overnight, and then Sunday looks dry all day. What am I missing?Was only playing cause the board seems to think we're in Mid Winter and we should automatically be getting feet of snow, lol. I do agree though, it's been tough this yr to get a band over KBUF for an extended period of time, but it's not like it's the first time it's happened like Delta mentioned. It does suck, when every one around you is seeing snow, and you can't catch a flake, lol. Frustrating to say the least as I know for sure I'd be super pissed.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Good signal for some Lake effect/enhancement day 6-8.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF The 2-5" verified across Southern Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Picked up 1" from the band, winds starting to pick up creating blizzard like conditions.. "Finished" with 5.5", bringing me to a little over 2 feet on the young season with another 9 days left to pile on before November comes to an end.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 My biggest complaint is the best lake effect event so far for this young season is occurring.....now...when I am on my way to Tennessee.... Lol...At least I know there will be more. Boss said Redfield is getting clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF The 2-5" verified across Southern Erie. Not entirely true. 2-4” of that fell in the widespread snow burst yesterday morning and early afternoon. I was hunting in Holland yesterday and there was a good 3-4” of new snow during the day so only 1-2” of that was from the band this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Wind has picked up and another burst of snow coming through. It’s nasty out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 We now have partly sunny skies. So much for this early start to snow season. Hopefully the next few days don't take too much heat out of Lake Erie. I wouldn't mind +10F above average temps and dry conditions for a couple of weeks (not that we will get it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Yeah skies trying to clear here in west Seneca right now as well. Next week MIGHT be interesting IF the closed low retrogrades far enough back west when the cold air deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, WNash said: We now have partly sunny skies. So much for this early start to snow season. Hopefully the next few days don't take too much heat out of Lake Erie. I wouldn't mind +10F above average temps and dry conditions for a couple of weeks (not that we will get it). Sat-Monday will be above normal, also another shot in Middle of December. Lake Erie is only 1 degree below normal right now. I can use some sunshine, has been way too gloomy last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 SW flow lake events are more rare just because of the climate of the Great Lakes. Not the main wind flow. But when they do happen...BAM! In Michigan, I lived in an area that was amazing during SW flow events, but struggled with many other wind directions. Plus, snow can melt rapidly when a Sw flow of mild air from the gulf works up. When you live in an area like Buffalo or Watertown, you definitely need to be patient in waiting for the big events. You guys still have all of December at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 For S&G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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