BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I honestly would not be shocked at a coating at best in northern Erie...ground is still relatively wet/not frozen couple with the band's movement means less than anticipated. Will probably have to wait until end of November early December for a big snow in the Niagara Frontier Arctic fronts usually surprise around these parts. Will be hitting overnight too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Arctic fronts usually surprise around these parts. Will be hitting overnight too. Yeah the potential is always there...lake effect, in my unprofessional opinion, is harder to nail down than the path of a hurricane. So there is always the "lake effect does what lake effect wants to" montra...still liking the end of November early December timeframe for an ec storm with retro LP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 In fact after next Monday it's cold, per GFS 18z, right through the end of the run and a couple opportunities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 Should be a nice burst of snow for everyone with the arctic front as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Snow depth Observations from my travels through Upstate New York today. Most snow was in the Tug, just south of the 90/390 intersection south of Rochester, and south of Mt. Morris in to Allegany county (almost as much snow there as on the Tug...especially on the hill tops) Snow was also falling and covering roads. Least amount of snow was from west of Syracuse to Rochester on 90., where there were many grassy areas showing (Especially near the wildlife refuge) and down in the Olean area. Plus, in this area my wife and I saw something that we haven't seen for weeks on the Tug....this bright, blinding ball in the sky near Auburn and Seneca Falls exits. We actually had to pull out sunglasses! :P 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Still snowing moderately, nearing 2”.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Snow depth Observations from my travels through Upstate New York today. Most snow was in the Tug, just south of the 90/390 intersection south of Rochester, and south of Mt. Morris in to Allegany county (almost as much snow there as on the Tug...especially on the hill tops) Snow was also falling and covering roads. Least amount of snow was from west of Syracuse to Rochester on 90., where there were many grassy areas showing (Especially near the wildlife refuge) and down in the Olean area. Plus, in this area my wife and I saw something that we haven't seen for weeks on the Tug....this bright, blinding ball in the sky near Auburn and Seneca Falls exits. We actually had to pull out sunglasses! Great obs. My folks live right near the 90-390 interchange and still have several inches. I’m up just N of Rochester, on the lake, and we are down to grass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Time to hit the sack.. A little over 3” down, still snowing.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Nailed it. Dusting at best on the grass and the lake Erie band looks weak. On to the end of the month!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Better start thinking about a row boat soon b55ecause with the amount of rain coming, we may need one! Rain from Friday Night straight through to Wednesday, lol. I guess Tuesdays event has changed to rain on most guidance so the snow that we all get today and tonight will be all gone by Wednesday afternoon. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 36 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Better start thinking about a row boat soon b55ecause with the amount of rain coming, we may need one! Rain from Friday Night straight through to Wednesday, lol. I guess Tuesdays event has changed to rain on most guidance so the snow that we all get today and tonight will be all gone by Wednesday afternoon. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Long range not looking as promising this morning, as BW noted it will be marginally cold only and any precip could be rain or snow during that time. Hopefully this us just a few runs and we see better continuity as we near that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Nailed it. Dusting at best on the grass and the lake Erie band looks weak. On to the end of the month!!! Yeah we got maybe an inch. Totally squandered potential as the lake lost 6 degrees over the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 BUF busted again! Sucks we can’t get anything going for us this year. I know it’s only Nov but we’re in our prime window right now to make or break the season. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Everything falling the past 3 hours has been a mix of graupel. Sleet and rain...none of which was forecast and currently 34 degrees...wake me up in 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 We got over 2" here. Another Southern Erie event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We got over 2" here. Another Southern Erie event. Point is the warmer air wasn't forecasted to the degree that mixing was an issue. This has been more problematic this year and has kept down accums on the Niagara frontier. And looking out to next week and beyond it doesn't look to change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 Sat-Mon timeframe look really nice. Highs around 50 each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sat-Mon timeframe look really nice. Highs around 50 each day. Wrong board. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Dang. BUF can’t catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 SR Guidance did show a spike in temperatures ahead of the cold front.. picked up 4.5”so far, snow starting to pick up again, kind of a broken up squall line here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 The cold front is coming through, but we're just getting light pingers. When will we ever get something to overperform? Or even perform as forecasted? We can't even meet minimal advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sat-Mon timeframe look really nice. Highs around 50 each day. I'll take a reset on this garbage start to the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, WNash said: The cold front is coming through, but we're just getting light pingers. When will we ever get something to overperform? Or even perform as forecasted? We can't even meet minimal advisory criteria. I cant even meet broom worthy snow to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, WNash said: I'll take a reset on this garbage start to the winter season. I can't complain, already over 14" on the winter and its 11/21. But I agree I don't want a wire to wire winter. Give me some warm breaks with some sunshine in between. 6 months of snow and darkness is not good for the body. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Snow Squall Warning * Until 1015 AM EST. * At 916 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Southwick Beach State Park to near Hamlin Beach State Park, moving south at 20 mph. HAZARD...Poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 35 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * This includes Interstate 81 between exits 33 and 40. This also includes State Route 104, and portions of the Rochester metropolitan area. Locations impacted include... Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Chili, Oswego, Fulton, Brockport, East Rochester, Hilton and Webster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 What is going on in here? So much doom and gloom. The start to winter has been early and strong, not sure what y'all are complaining about. The way I see it almost everything we have gotten so far is straight bonus snow. Many years I would still be waiting on my first real coating or inch of snow on this date. Just a few years back Buffalo didn't even get its first measurable snow until after Christmas. It could be much worse! Additionally, that arctic front looks viscous. Wouldn't be surprised if someone heard a rumble of thunder in it. The NWS is dropping snow squall warnings for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Wire to wire Winter! Closing in on 20" for the season and she's real early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 0 complaints on the Eastern end of the Lake but a different story to our West! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just to our NE, beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 I agree with DeltaT13. Normal highs for this date is 46 at KSYR. How many Thanksgivings recently have had temperatures above normal and no snow going into December. I’m at 18 inches already this season. The snow is picking up in intensity as the arctic front approaches. The squall line off the lake is getting stronger but will probably weaken as it moves south and loses it’s lake connection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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