Scraff Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Alright alright alright. GFS is back on TT! Still a time period of interest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Not often I root against cold, but - damn- so much for watching the game Thursday out on my patio. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, Scraff said: Alright alright alright. GFS is back on TT! Still a time period of interest... D11 inverted trough? Sure. Gfs can nail that. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 22 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Not often I root against cold, but - damn- so much for watching the game Thursday out on my patio. Bummer. Seriously? Man up! 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: D11 inverted trough? Sure. Gfs can nail that. Lol It has to be good for something. God knows it can't get a thermal boundary right from D1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 6 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z Euro even colder for Thanksgiving morning. Highs still don't get out of the 20s for most of the area. Hoping to make a run at single digits as a low here (McHenry). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Not often I root against cold, but - damn- so much for watching the game Thursday out on my patio. Bummer. Your weather expectations and desires continue to perplex me. You want it to rain all summer long and then be patio weather at the end of November? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Your weather expectations and desires continue to perplex me. You want it to rain all summer long and then be patio weather at the end of November? He's just a serial complainer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 50 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Looks okay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 06z GFS: Artic kiss on Thursday looks colder, -13c @850mb 18z. Scud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 06z GFS: looks like 500mb cyclone sets up just north of Great Lakes. Several short waves do the fugi-wa with amplification last run around 12/1. Winter Storm likely. Scud Fugi-wa is a Japanese term used to describe vortexes spinning around each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 35 minutes ago, Scud said: 06z GFS: looks like 500mb cyclone sets up just north of Great Lakes. Several short waves do the fugi-wa with amplification last run around 12/1. Winter Storm likely. Scud Likely? Bold call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Scud said: 06z GFS: Artic kiss on Thursday looks colder, -13c @850mb 18z. Scud No doubt on that one. Has to be one of the coldest in many years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 11 hours ago, PhineasC said: Your weather expectations and desires continue to perplex me. You want it to rain all summer long and then be patio weather at the end of November? Lol. Just wishing for calm winds on Turkey day so we can sit by the fire while watching the game. It's a special exemption. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Overnight EPS breaks down the -NAO in early December but what’s nice to see is its neutral while higher heights are still in the AO domain. PAC isn’t hostile either. Strange feeling good going into December... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Overnight EPS breaks down the -NAO in early December but what’s nice to see is its neutral while higher heights are still in the AO domain. PAC isn’t hostile either. Strange feeling good going into December... Yeah the EPS was never as enthusiastic with the NA blocking as the GEFS in the LR, and even less so now. The AO state is the most important feature as we head into Dec IMO, and looking at the MSLP anomaly panels I see orange and not a blue ball towards the pole, so I would say we are on track. Plus the PAC look improves quite a bit towards day 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 3 hours ago, BristowWx said: Likely? Bold call Likely would be 60% chance. Euro amplifies early, as does GEM, then strong clipper. This far out its simply a timing issue. You guys were having too much fun dancing in the, "Faties," with last event. Just had to join the conversation. Scud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 12 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 That storms a mess, but it's going to verify as something frozen I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 23 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: That storms a mess, but it's going to verify as something frozen I think. What we know. A series of Arctic air masses move SE. The first will reach us Thursday, but it's just a kiss. A warm core Storm will develope in strong warm air advection as, "kiss," moves off shore. Then, ridge developes rapidly over Rockies at 500mb. Then, the table is set. Scud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah the EPS was never as enthusiastic with the NA blocking as the GEFS in the LR, and even less so now. The AO state is the most important feature as we head into Dec IMO, and looking at the MSLP anomaly panels I see orange and not a blue ball towards the pole, so I would say we are on track. Plus the PAC look improves quite a bit towards day 15. Absolutely. I never thought we’d see a steady -NAO for a long period of time but its nice to see we can actually get a -NAO in winter. No big blue ball of death over Alaska either which reinforces the favorable PAC we’re seeing at the end of the run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Can we not call it an arctic “kiss”? 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Can we not call it an arctic “kiss”? A fetch of arctic air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 GFS teases big time from the 30th and beyond. Just a bit too suppressive as the storm from next Tuesday blows up and gets stuck under the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GFS teases big time from the 30th and beyond. Just a bit too suppressive as the storm from next Tuesday blows up and gets stuck under the NAO. Saw that... looked intriguing though. Wonder if any of the GEFS members will pick up on it and show a storm for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2018 Author Share Posted November 19, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Can we not call it an arctic “kiss”? And can we not say "likely" for something 12+ days out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Saw that... looked intriguing though. Wonder if any of the GEFS members will pick up on it and show a storm for us Glad we're getting more than just one shot at some good wintry precip through the end of November + first week of December. Hopefully we can get some pre game snow and then hit the unlikely jackpot when the NAO breaks down. Climo areas favored of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Glad we're getting more than just one shot at some good wintry precip through the end of November + first week of December. Hopefully we can get some pre game snow and then hit the unlikely jackpot when the NAO breaks down. Climo areas favored of course Even the break down of the NAO might be good timing. Rebuild in time for the holidays. Never going to see wall to wall blocking we all know that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And can we not say "likely" for something 12+ days out. I think so. Scud As an aside, we called it the five day lie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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