November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I think those of us to the west have a chance for a snow shower or two with the frontal passage on Tuesday. That is how we normally see flakes this time of year out here. 

That early Dec chance is looking legit for sure. The GFS and FV3 both have the storm but one is a cutter and the other is squashed. 

Was seeing that. Those around the PA line might get into some action as well.

[poolz1]

FV3 with some good fantasy looks...

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[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

FV3 with some good fantasy looks...

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The very end of its run is an attention getter. 

[clskinsfan]

Man. The FV3 is so close to a bomb for the Nov 29/30th threat. 50/50 in place. Southern shortwave in a good position. It is just a little bit late. Then it is followed up by another bomb right behind it. We are gong to have some fun tracking over the next couple of weeks.

OH HELLO THERE:

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Man. The FV3 is so close to a bomb for the Nov 29/30th threat. 50/50 in place. Southern shortwave in a good position. It is just a little bit late. Then it is followed up by another bomb right behind it. We are gong to have some fun tracking over the next couple of weeks.

GEFS Day 11 onward was winter weenie porn for the most part. Granted we are still fighting temps (climo) but I would take the look being advertised and like our chances to score something.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

You forgot the weenie rule that it will produce its own cold air!

Weren't you the one saying no accumulating snow outside of the mountains on the last storm?

[osfan24]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Weren't you the one saying no accumulating snow outside of the mountains on the last storm?

LOL no. I always thought the favored areas would do quite well in the last storm. Was surprised we got accumulation on the roads in the cities.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

This isn't far from a very good look. If we see the GEFS playing follow the leader there might just be some members that pop. Will be interesting to see what mean it throws out at this time frame as well.

eta: Just realized that this is the period that DT is honking about.

I honked it too early this AM  

I tend to agree with WxUSAF though- Might be the storm after this storm. Need a fresh batch of chilly, dry air. Marginal temps can work when we have the awesomeness of evap cooling, along with a favorable track.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I honked it too early this AM  

I tend to agree with WXUASF though- Might be the storm after this storm. Need a fresh batch of chilly, dry air. Marginal temps can work when we have the awesomeness of evap cooling, along with a favorable track.

Don't want to hear about maybe the storm after this storm. I'm greedy, I want them both. Hell, I even want the one I discussed this morning that will probably be a rainstorm. Give me my seasonal snow average before Christmas or I will play like Ji and consider this winter a bust. 

[poolz1]

Euro holds serve with a frozen turkey day. Highs below freezing, gusty NW wind... Dews in the single digits. Temps drop quickly into the low 20s once the sun goes down... Good digestion weather.

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[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't want to hear about maybe the storm after this storm. I'm greedy, I want them both. Hell, I even want the one I discussed this morning that will probably be a rainstorm. Give me my seasonal snow average before Christmas or I will play like Ji and consider this winter a bust. 

I am still IN on something around Dec 1. At least until it becomes clear its an inland runner or a cutter lol. H5 look is so good, even though its early(for my yard).

[Climate175]

46 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Man. The FV3 is so close to a bomb for the Nov 29/30th threat. 50/50 in place. Southern shortwave in a good position. It is just a little bit late. Then it is followed up by another bomb right behind it. We are gong to have some fun tracking over the next couple of weeks.

OH HELLO THERE:

Such a good look.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

You've been saying two weeks for like a month now

By the end of February I feel confident winter will have shown it's hand, but we will have to wait and see.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Man. The FV3 is so close to a bomb for the Nov 29/30th threat. 50/50 in place. Southern shortwave in a good position. It is just a little bit late. Then it is followed up by another bomb right behind it. We are gong to have some fun tracking over the next couple of weeks.

OH HELLO THERE:

Could you imagine closing out the snowfall contest on the 30th while it’s snowing? People would be editing by the minute!

[WxUSAF]

Euro says upper 10s for many Black Friday morning.

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro says upper 10s for many Black Friday morning.

Thanksgiving day looks sub 50 heh

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

There's your storm. 

https://imgur.com/a/sskOzSd

[Bob Chill]

4 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

You've been saying two weeks for like a month now

Ha! Lol

Two different 2 weeks. Starting Dec with a -ao is half of it. The other half is getting a mean -ao at or below -1.25. If the AO is strongly negative on long range guidance going into Dec then the only other 2 week periods we care about are the D15 fantasy snowstorms that never materialize. 

[showmethesnow]

18Z is getting a little more aggressive on our Tues system up around the PA line. One member even gets a decent swath through the metros.

As far as the extended? It's still rockin. 

[poolz1]

15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

18Z is getting a little more aggressive on our Tues system up around the PA line. One member even gets a decent swath through the metros.

As far as the extended? It's still rockin. 

If you loop the 18z gfs op run I count 5 different closed lows traversing the country east of the rockies.....2 of which take a pass directly overhead.  We just had a nice ull produce our early season snowstorm.  I wonder if this theme will continue deeper into the season?

[showmethesnow]

15 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

If you loop the 18z gfs op run I count 5 different closed lows traversing the country east of the rockies.....2 of which take a pass directly overhead.  We just had a nice ull produce our early season snowstorm.  I wonder if this theme will continue deeper into the season?

If we continue to see the good blocking over-top I think it would be a good bet. Fingers crossed here.

[frd]

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If we continue to see the good blocking over-top I think it would be a good bet. Fingers crossed here.

Did you notice a trend possibly of more Western ridging ? 

[mappy]

18Z is getting a little more aggressive on our Tues system up around the PA line. One member even gets a decent swath through the metros.
As far as the extended? It's still rockin. 

My way too? Or PSU and you?


.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

My way too? Or PSU and you?


.

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Did you notice a trend possibly of more Western ridging ? 

Not sure what you are asking. A quicker transition to a +PNA? Or stronger?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

44 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, it will be a minor snowstorm.

[frd]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure what you are asking. A quicker transition to a +PNA? Or stronger?

Sorry, meant to say a quicker transition to a +PNA. If so, maybe that  helps us in future runs.   

[frd]

One thing for sure, the El Nino is not going away quickly. I tend to feel this will impact us in March as well. 

Still feel the winter extends this year to March with cold and snow chances,  like it has more frequently the last 4 to 5 years. 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

58 minutes ago, frd said:

Sorry, meant to say a quicker transition to a +PNA. If so, maybe that  helps us in future runs.   

That would kinda put us in holy grail territory (-AO, -NAO, +PNA) wouldn't it?  (And as of now, what is it showing? The PNA not becoming positive fast enough?)

[showmethesnow]

9 hours ago, frd said:

Did you notice a trend possibly of more Western ridging ? 

 

7 hours ago, frd said:

Sorry, meant to say a quicker transition to a +PNA. If so, maybe that  helps us in future runs.   

I am assuming that you are referring to our general chances over the next few weeks as opposed to a particular storm?

If that is the case I am not so sure we should just be focusing on the PNA itself but the generally pattern that is driven by the Pacific. With an El Nino the typical base state is a +PNA (western ridging), -EO (Aleutian trough +lower pressures) and troughing in the east. Now if we frame the question that way I would say yes we have seen a quicker transitioning to a stable Nino driven PAC pattern as far as the GEFS is concerned. Glancing over the last week of runs we were seeing this pattern being established later and some of the runs that were throwing it up quicker were then breaking the pattern down quickly afterwards. Now as far as the EPS is concerned I really have no idea. Can only go back a few days to compare. But I do know from memory that it was playing catch-up to the GEFS when it came to the pattern shift we were seeing in the N Atlantic and over-top. So maybe by extension it was having issues with the PAC as well? 

As far as helping us in future runs it sure doesn't hurt. The first thing I focus on whenever I look at the 500's is where the ridging and the troughing set up. Give me the west ridge and the east trough any day of the week because it gives us a much better chance that systems can get underneath us keeping us on the cold side of the storms.

Now we are potentially entering a period of time where this ridge and trough alignment aren't quite as important because models are seeing good blocking over-top of us in Canada. What this means is that troughs react differently as they see this blocking. Quite often we will see the troughs roll over themselves because they have a difficult time going negative tilt. So a trough in the west doesn't necessarily mean we will see it pulling northward to our west taking any system it has attached to it. There are other positive aspects of the blocking in Canada as well. Closed ULL lows, Lows detached from the flow, tendency to drive colder air southward. Now if what we are currently seeing with the pattern on the models was coming 2-3 weeks later I think you would see many woofing. The setup just has that much potential. But we are still fighting climo to a point where everything is still a little farther to the north then we would see later in the winter. Doesn't mean we can't score, and possibly big, just means that we have to work a little harder at it.