WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 EPS at 216 is absolutely classic for MA snowstorms. Ridge axis across Idaho and shortwave passing to our south with a trough near 50/50. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS at 216 is absolutely classic for MA snowstorms. Ridge axis across Idaho and shortwave passing to our south with a trough near 50/50. Nice to see the synoptic pattern supporting the modeled outcome from the Euro ensembles and the OP. Snow cover by the end of next week might be nuts. Already I think NA and the US are setting records for snow cover. Seems the upcoming winter is intent on laying down it's cover early. I love seeing the snow cover so extensive. It holds promise for later in the month too if the relax is indeed brief. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is a straight up lambasting. Might mix for a time with slp track but it's a front end, middle, and backend thumparoo Yeah. Perfect track for all of us. Personally I would take the FV3 track with the Euro temps leading up to the event. But I am greedy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Credit @griteater 1 minute ago, griteater said: EPS for day 10-15 following our storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: IF that HP is as big as modeled, no doubt that will play into CAD and front end thumpage potential. Agreed. But if it doesnt get out of the way in time we could be screaming about Richmond. Still a long ways to go. Just glad we have a something that is going to track under us to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Credit @griteater Notice how the vortex and/or trough never sets up over AK? Just 3 days ago or so that closed h5 contour was parked right over AK. It's been subtle and gradual but the Pac is moving away from the idea that winter will get put on hold in these parts. I do expect a boring mild period to set up but things are looking better every day that goes by. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Notice how the vortex and/or trough never sets up over AK? Just 3 days ago or so that closed h5 contour was parked right over AK. It's been subtle and gradual but the Pac is moving away from the idea that winter will get put on hold in these parts. I do expect a boring mild period to set up but things are looking better every day that goes by. It's *starting* to behave like you'd expect a pacific would in an El Nino. I was never a believer that a vortex would set up long term over AK...even if it does, it'll be very short lived. Good to see the models trending in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I would imagine that with the strength of that vortex once it moves just a hair west there would be a pretty strong reaction. It's one way to quickly replace any snow cover lost in Canada from the warm spell....You can just envision a serious EPO/PNA ridge that would pump plenty of heat poleward and put us into a pretty prolonged pattern of cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 "We could be screaming about Richmond." I mean Richmond is part of this subforum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: EPS at 216 is absolutely classic for MA snowstorms. Ridge axis across Idaho and shortwave passing to our south with a trough near 50/50. Compared to previous runs, there is also more pronounced ridging over GL, and a stronger, more consolidated piece of the PV underneath. Pretty impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 18z GFS still wants nothing to do with the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS still wants nothing to do with the 5th Close to putting a fork in that one. All guidance has moved away from the idea last few runs. Still 4-5 days out but it's become very low odds at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS still wants nothing to do with the 5th At least not up at our latitude. Whatever happens, it would likely be a light event. Still would not be surprised if this ends up further north. It would likely be snow if it does anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Here's the DC meteo from the 12z euro ens. Pretty much a complete bail on the 5th but a significant increase in support for the next one. By far the best eps run so far but as the graph shows, about half of the eps members are still a no go. I scanned through the members and the big hits are mostly classic (and believable) tracks and setups. Very good run. A long ways to go but for d8+ there's enough support to suck us all down the rabbit hole...until 0z lol Eta: forgot to add this point... There's really not much spread in timing with the members. That's always a good sign. When you see large timing spread it means there are a lot of variables that affect the evolution. Not the case with the 12z run. Op, control, and many ensemble members agree on the solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like an inverted trough offshore this run. I'm not ready to look past it . I'm betting it gets wetter inside 72 . How much..who knows. Hopefully it bumps north as well. I'd take that bet...me gut tells me it's gonna be a sneaky quick-hitter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like an inverted trough offshore this run. I'm not ready to look past it . I'm betting it gets wetter inside 72 . How much..who knows. Hopefully it bumps north as well. GFS seems to depict that quite often with weaker systems in medium/long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 At hr 189 on 18z GFS, 1038mb HP located in NW IL with what looks to be a SLP down by the SW FL coast in the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 @Bob Chill I picked through most of the members as well....it seemed to me that the key is having a decent high in the right place as a lot of the members that snowed had a low that runs inland of NC. Not the typical DC track unless you have a stout..banana high. Honestly it was a casual look at the members but something I noticed. Not that having a stout high in place for a good snow storm is news breaking but some of the runs have wavered with the strength this high.... A lot more goes into pulling this storm into a stout HP but its a good sign seeing a fair amount of the members having this classic look to the HP and placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Happy Hour crushes our storm south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Happy Hour crushes our storm south. Yup... a 1030s HP sitting in PA won't do us any favors. Oh well. 8 days out still and on to the ensembles lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Snowlover101 said: Good way to say it, but why did he share the snow maps?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Good way to say it, but why did he share the snow maps?! Why did DT... share the Euro snowmaps... Evergreen question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snowlover101 said: Does anyone remember this one? No we all slept through it. Dude seriously? 2 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snowlover101 said: Does anyone remember this one? Drawing a blank here myself. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No we all slept through it. Dude seriously? Just checking haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snowlover101 said: Just checking haha That was funny..you be drinking tonight. That is the bench mark for every possible Dec storm. At least in my yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Compared to previous runs, there is also more pronounced ridging over GL, and a stronger, more consolidated piece of the PV underneath. Pretty impressive. Yeah. Nothing to complain about there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 If you take a 50/50 blend of the 18z gfs & FV3 we get destroyed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you take a 50/50 blend of the 18z gfs & FV3 we get destroyed. Lol yep a squashed Southern storm on one and a Miller B OV to off of NYC redevelopment on the other. Just some minor differences between the two hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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