BristowWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Just throwing this out there. Per DT (WxRisk) "Cold pattern breaks down after Dec 10-11..Mild for December 12-24" Interesting. We can’t get accuracy 5 days out so that doesn’t move my needle. If we get next weekend then all is right for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Weeklies are nice but proving to be jumpy again. Some nice hints recently with ens guidance backing down the intensity of the +epo and now the weeklies followed. Starting to get the feel that a hostile Pac may not materialize at all. At least not long enough to cause any panic anyways. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies are nice but proving to be jumpy again. Some nice hints recently with ens guidance backing down the intensity of the +epo and now the weeklies followed. Starting to get the feel that a hostile Pac may not materialize at all. At least not long enough to cause any panic anyways. Bob, do you know when the Euro and Ukmet seasonals are updated again ? I want to say near the 5 th of the month maybe ? Funny thing is if the bullish euro seasonal holds court again ( 4 th month in a row ) it simply makes sense to focus less on the jumpy weeklies. I know the pattern evolution, etc. is of high interest on them, but they do seem to have a few biases at play so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 minute ago, frd said: Bob, do you know when the Euro and Ukmet seasonals are updated again ? I want to say near the 5 th of the month maybe ? Funny thing is if the bullish euro seasonal holds court again ( 4 th month in a row ) it simply makes sense to focus less on the jumpy weeklies. I know the pattern evolution, etc. is of high interest on them, but they do seem to have a few biases at play so far. I'm not sure when the seasonals come out each month. The standout feature on the weeklies that I really liked was the coupled +pna/-epo setting up in early Jan. Lower heights underneath the +pna implying an active southern stream. Total fantasyland lead time but if the pac did in fact set up like that then Jan could be a cold/stormy month. Right in the heart of prime climo... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: As far as day 5 . Just saw the 12z Ukie and it has a deeper trough kind of like the Icon which gave us snow . Not bad...Was just looking at the gefs...a nice trend. Not quite there yet but you can see how it's possible to back into this and score something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Here's a visual to go along with my last post. This is an exceptional winter pattern for our region. I'd take my chances with this any day between thanksgiving and St patty day.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 On 11/20/2018 at 1:42 PM, WxUSAF said: GEFS strongly favor a TN valley transfer to SC/NC coast around the 2nd-3rd. Not sure if this is just their nondispersive nature showing up again to support the Op at 300 hr leads. Seems possible. But the setup is very nice, that’s for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's a visual to go along with my last post. This is an exceptional winter pattern for our region. I'd take my chances with this any day between thanksgiving and St patty day.... Awesome !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Timing kind of makes sense. Score on the way into a cold snap and score on he way out of the cold snap. I’m also liking that the cold anomalies are like -10 to -15. And not like -30 bone dry departures. I’m liking the look here for another winter appetizer...maybe even an entree if the cards fall right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's a visual to go along with my last post. This is an exceptional winter pattern for our region. I'd take my chances with this any day between thanksgiving and St patty day.... Seems what you are saying follows this progression nicely : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, frd said: Seems what you are saying follows this progression nicely : Okay I'm gonna need somebody in here to be an HM translator...I don't understand about 80% of his tweets, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Take this to the bank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: 16 minutes ago, frd said: Okay I'm gonna need somebody in here to be an HM translator...I don't understand about 80% of his tweets, lol Basically the wheels are in motion for a return to colder weather right after the brief warm up. So all in all the relax of cold will not be a long span of time. So good news from HM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snowlover101 said: Take this to the bank Oh no!!!! NO MAPS! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 DT Thoughts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, looks good. Majority are either a solid hit or southern slider. I'll take e7 and a bag of popcorn for 600 alex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 This storm is looking like a Virginia hitter all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 In my experience, projected models changes with MJO have low skill, I think the modeled -PNA in 7-15 Day is wrong (MJO 1-2-3). Look at the "break" or "odd number" in El Nino pattern. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I had to share... VA special. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I had to share... VA special. We take and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Lock it in please. I’ll be back in DC next weekend through Monday. Just moved away last April, but in the 7 years I lived there, I only had one good nor’easter (my birthday weekend, Jan 2016). I deserve more than that. So lock it in please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 25 minutes ago, yoda said: We take and run Only a couple days away from medium range.. hold strong little roots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 29 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I had to share... VA special. Looks like feb 5-6 2010. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 57 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I had to share... VA special. Not too shabby for Maryland either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 More like the storm of 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 I can’t wait for DT to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 00z GFS taking a big step towards the idea of at least a close call on Tuesday 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, high risk said: 00z GFS taking a big step towards the idea of at least a close call on Tuesday Looks like we get a period of light snow Tues night... but yes, close call overall. FWIW, 00z GFS shows 1-2" south of DCA to around EZF and into S MD on the snowmap Meanwhile both the 00z ICON and 00z CMC say we get nothing for Tuesday... and 00z CMC FWIW says no to the Dec 8th to 10th chance as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I smell snow in the near future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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