H2O Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 40? Who needs that long? 384hr maps come out and its two pump chump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: *gasp* MOTHER!!!! What kind of example are you setting for us? that we need wet and moist for a good storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, H2O said: 40? Who needs that long? 384hr maps come out and its two pump chump oh my 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: oh my We're right on the precipice here...let's back away and get back to discussing the 252 hour GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: We're right on the precipice here...let's back away and get back to discussing the 252 hour GFS. But the puppy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 fringed is the new edging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 So, reading between the lines, I take it the Fv3 is really good? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We're right on the precipice here...let's back away and get back to discussing the 252 hour GFS. can you ban waterboy? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 @ravensrule please report to the long range thread. @ravensrule to the long range thread. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @ravensrule please report to the long range thread. @ravensrule to the long range thread. Yeah, we're right in his wheelhouse now. H2O is doing a real good job substituting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Anyway, back to weather, euro manifests some sort of strong northern stream wave that yanks the storm on the 8th up to Pittsburgh. No other guidance has that. I’d wag that Eps won’t support this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Anyway, back to weather, euro manifests some sort of strong northern stream wave that yanks the storm on the 8th up to Pittsburgh. No other guidance has that. I’d wag that Eps won’t support this solution. Yes, but would you WAGE it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 16 minutes ago, mappy said: @WxUSAF is to blame Fv3 is to blame.... sweet mother of all things holy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: No idea although I would assume the ensembles will also transition to FV3. Yes, but it will not be concurrent with the switch of the GFS to the FV3 core. The GEFS upgrade to FV3 is still over a year away. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yes, but would you WAGE it? Nothing in this thread is coming out the right way today...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 If it can move that much in one run, it can move again. On to happy hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 11 minutes ago, high risk said: Yes, but it will not be concurrent with the switch of the GFS to the FV3 core. The GEFS upgrade to FV3 is still over a year away. Ugh....so we will still be using the same gefs even once the gfs op is gone? I'm really looking forward to that upgrade...more than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 we need to move forward 5 days in our lives. The 10 day to 5 day wait is the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we need to move forward 5 days in our lives. The 10 day to 5 day wait is the worst Yes it is...it is a psychological battle of model swings and trying not to get too invested either direction knowing it's not set in stone. But again...I blame the last two winters for this, lol (especially when somebody say "northern stream"...although as @Bob Chill said, in this case that has potential to either help or hurt...making this chase a little more maddening, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2018 Author Share Posted November 29, 2018 9 minutes ago, Scud said: If it can move that much in one run, it can move again. On to happy hour... Euro must be a terrible model if we use Ji's logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ugh....so we will still be using the same gefs even once the gfs op is gone? I'm really looking forward to that upgrade...more than the op. correct. There will be no change to the GEFS when the FV3GFS replaces the GFS in operations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 50 minutes ago, mappy said: hahahaha i think that would be even worse. 234hr panel looks amazingly wet and moist and... A pair of double-barrel bombing lows supported by a deep moisture fetch from the Gulf..... Speaking of weather models -- what's the consensus on the FV3's biases if any are known so far? I've seen some mentions here and there but not sure if we have a general feel yet for what to watch out for in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, high risk said: correct. There will be no change to the GEFS when the FV3GFS replaces the GFS in operations. Thanks for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Looks like the euro lost all of our confluence over NE....does this NS system affect the confluence or was this both a "new" NS system and a lack of a transitory 50/50 to create the confluence needed...like 00z run? Just curious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 17 minutes ago, high risk said: correct. There will be no change to the GEFS when the FV3GFS replaces the GFS in operations. Why wouldn't they want to incorporate and updates into the current GEFS. Too much math? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, mappy said: hahahaha i think that would be even worse. 234hr panel looks amazingly wet and moist and... Holy Mappy!! Just catching up. And now I “2 eyes looking left emoji” need a minute alone... This winter is going to be insane... Eta: Just want to make sure we weren’t in storm mode? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Why wouldn't they want to incorporate and updates into the current GEFS. Too much math? j/k ha! There is no way (in terms of manpower and computer resources) to do the complete set of retrospective testing and evaluation that needs to be done (much of the past 3 years were rerun with the FV3GFS and assessed as part of the validation) for both the GFS and GEFS systems concurrently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 I see Will says that the EPS day 9 and 10 look nothing like the OP in the SNE forum... anybody concur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Gotta love parsing over 2156 hour panels of op runs. Be that as it may, the Euro stepped in a better direction to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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