showmethesnow Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have noticed over the last several years that the EPS really won't show much of a signal on the snowfall means until a threat gets into the day 10 range. Even in January 2016, there was a hint at the setup on the h5 but the snowfall mean didnt start to respond until it was within about day 10. The GEFS will often jump of something in the day 11-15 range, and usually its wrong, probably because of its lack of spread compared to the EPS. Due to its greater variability and numbers, plus the time range, the EPS won't really show a significant snowfall total on the mean in the day 11-15 range even in a pretty good pattern. Seeing it start to jump up around day 10 when the pattern is conducive to a snowfall is typical. Still doesn't mean its high probability or anything but its not a bad sign. You just know that if Mitch is reading this he is screaming at the computer that the snowfall means mean squat for our snowstorm chances. I honestly miss the debates you and I had with him over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 42 minutes ago, jayyy said: We’re not even through November and most have seen snowfall (some have seen significant snowfall) and it’s been in the 30s and cold for nearly a week. We will certainly be well under average for the month. The fact that people are panicking because a storm may be rain or mix before winter even begins is ridiculous. Patience guys. Patience. The first storm in December will likely not be a snow maker. The second, however, likely will be as we will have blocking and a -AO. I’m glad you know it will be a snow maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 You guys get ahead of yourselves. There is a nice -AO coming up in a west-based El Nino. December does usually transition but that is just seasonal, I'm also not sure things are strong enough to support that. It's a flat pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 12z GFS at 216 looks intriguing at h5... Looks like suppression for us at 240 but still like the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 More models to go. It ain't over till its over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 It's not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Not bad for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Puppy killer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS at 216 looks intriguing at h5... Looks like suppression for us at 240 but still like the look Honestly like what it is showing at this point. A, the setup argues against this cutting. B, GFS in the past has had a habit of suppressing systems somewhat until we have gotten within mid/short-range. Of course this is a newer version of the GFS so that suppression rule may no longer be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Porsche said: Not bad for right now. cant ask for a better placed High 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Much better high position and a stronger shortwave this run. Storms still there. Not much else to say on an op run 11 days out. As for the 5th, we want something closer to what today’s 12z Canadian has. A weaker more progressive wave that just rises the boundary. Or we hope for front end magic before rain like our storm 2 weeks ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Honestly like what it is showing at this point. A, the setup argues against this cutting. B, GFS in the past has had a habit of suppressing systems somewhat until we have gotten within mid/short-range. Of course this is a newer version of the GFS so that suppression rule may no longer be in play. thats still the same GFS...the new one hasnt run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Hr. 288 looks nice. Snowing with lp just off NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Hr. 288 looks nice. Snowing with lp just off NC coast. 288 but might well be at 384 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, Ji said: thats still the same GFS...the new one hasnt run yet Yeah, I know. The version we a have now though is new enough that I am not sure if the suppression rule is still in play or not. At times it seemed as if it were and other times not so much. When does the FV3 get launched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, I know. The version we a have now though is new enough that I am not sure if the suppression rule is still in play or not. At times it seemed as if it were and other times not so much. When does the FV3 get launched? I haven't seen an exact date... but sometime early 2019 its supposed to be operational and replace the old GFS I believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 288 but might well be at 384 at this point. Or 144 for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, I know. The version we a have now though is new enough that I am not sure if the suppression rule is still in play or not. At times it seemed as if it were and other times not so much. When does the FV3 get launched? I hear it’s scheduled departure for the moon is inevitable. Kennedy Space Center working out the deets. Anyway—back to selling beer and tracking mood of the forum... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 FV3 takes over in late January. Early comparison of this years winter storms show that its outperforming the GFS in a few ways. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, I know. The version we a have now though is new enough that I am not sure if the suppression rule is still in play or not. At times it seemed as if it were and other times not so much. When does the FV3 get launched? Late January IIRC. Don't quote me on that though. ETA: Ninja'd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 @Maestrobjwa yesterday you brought up the modoki vs basin wide debate going on. I replied but didn't have time to go into it much. Imo there is a lot of confusion regarding this. And some of it seems to be a difference in how some classify a modoki. Some seems to be ignorance. And some seems to be agenda driven intellectual dishonesty. But the problem is the difference between different types of enso is ambiguous sometimes and not a clear cut thing First there seems to be a newer definition of a modoki that classifies it as warmer waters in the central Pacific with cooler waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The older classic definition I was familiar with was when the warming originates and propagates from the central Pacific. By the newer definition there are very few actual modoki ninos. Almost all the ninos we call modoki would be basin wide by that definition because almost all of them as they mature spread out and encompass the entire basin at some point. But some are using this more restrictive classification to say this is not a modoki. But then 2002/03, 2009/10, and 2014/15 weren't either. Let's call these people the modoki truthers. By their definition yea this isn't a modoki but neither are the other analogs. Some of them seem to truly be confused about the distinction and some seem to be playing word games to serve an agenda. I have no interest in labels. I don't care what you call this phenomenon. Call it the kings nuts for all I care what matters to me are finding good analogs not what to call them. I'll try to illustrate below. This is how a classical nino evolves originating in the eastern Pacific and propagating westward. 2006 2015 in the next post I'll show some "modoki" years and this year... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Ref: 144-180hr system 12z data: GFS takes low west to buffalo. FV3 takes it south and out to sea, few SW-. CMS tries to bring it up the coast with 1-3 of snow. Hope springs eternal. Now let's see the mcdaddy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @Maestrobjwa yesterday you brought up the modoki vs basin wide debate going on. I replied but didn't have time to go into it much. Imo there is a lot of confusion regarding this. And some of it seems to be a difference in how some classify a modoki. Some seems to be ignorance. And some seems to be agenda driven intellectual dishonesty. But the problem is the difference between different types of enso is ambiguous sometimes and not a clear cut thing First there seems to be a newer definition of a modoki that classifies it as warmer waters in the central Pacific with cooler waters in the wearer equatorial Pacific. The older classic definition I was familiar with was when the warming originates and propagates from the central Pacific. By the newer definition there are very few actual modoki ninos. Almost all the ninos we call modoki would be basin wide by that definition because almost all of them as they mature spread out and encompass the entire basin at some point. But some are using this more restrictive classification to say this is not a modoki. But then 2002/2, 2009/10, and 2014/15 weren't either. Let's call these people the modoki truthers. By their definition yea this isn't a modoki but neither are the other analogs. Some of them seem to truly be confused about the distraction and some seem to be playing word games to serve an agenda. I have no interest in labels. I don't care what you call this phenomenon. Call it the kings nuts for all I care what matters to me are finding good analogs not what to call them. I'll try to illustrate below. This is how a classical nino evolves originating in the eastern Pacific and propagating westward. ..... in the next post I'll show some "modoki" years and this year... 19 Looking forward to seeing the kings nuts in your next post! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 modoki truthers LMAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 44 minutes ago, Porsche said: Not bad for right now. Big storm. Western Atlantic Ridge is a problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 46 minutes ago, Ji said: cant ask for a better placed High Yup. It was awful in earlier runs. Moving off the coast. It’s +240 and somebody’s dog died, but this one might be something to track. So an exception can be made. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Mean GEFS has a nice track for the 5th to our south. Certainly a cluster that goes into the Lakes, but it’s better than I expected. Lots of spread still for the 9th as you’d expect. On a side note, GEFS seems more dispersive so far this winter relative to last year. Not sure if that was a code change or coincidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 These are 2 recent "modoki" events. 2002 2014 I didn't use 2009 because that was really ambiguous at times taking on east based characteristics and at times modoki. With 2002 and 2014 you can clearly see the difference in how the enso event evolved. Next I'll post this year. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 GEFS took a nice step in how we can avoid a terrible pac setup. The Scand ridge pushing into the NAO region will help both the east coast not flip to warm and also help prevent a burly AK trough/vortex. GEFS backed off quite a bit on the strength of the +EPO building over AK. Look at the isobars along the pac coast of Canada. Much better than the trough axis further east like the EPS and recent GEFS runs have shown. If ensembles continue to trend in that direction we can breath a small sigh of relief... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Yup. It was awful in earlier runs. Moving off the coast. It’s +240 and somebody’s dog died, but this one might be something to track. So an exception can be made. This one is screaming "watch me" IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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