showmethesnow Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't think anyone was being serious. I think they were just joking. I myself was seriously offended. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Both GFS's still like the early Dec timeframe for a storm. And they are surprisingly similar in their evolution for so far out. Edit: Post edited to remove political content. I dont want to take a beatdown from Mappy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 HM’s talking dirty 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Only if DT gets to sit on that panel. Talk about fireworks. Both GFS's still like the early Dec timeframe for a storm. And they are surprisingly similar in their evolution for so far out. You gonna pay the FCC fines? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Both GFS's still like the early Dec timeframe for a storm. And they are surprisingly similar in their evolution for so far out. Edit: Post edited to remove political content. I dont want to take a beatdown from Mappy It wouldn't be winter without Mappy getting feisty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 36 minutes ago, mappy said: keep the political stuff out of this thread, a friendly heads up. someone posting MSNBC stuff doesn't mean they are endorsing anything from MSNBC, and vice versa for any other MSM network. thanks MSM (Methylsulfonylmethane) is great stuff. I highly recommend it. I take it daily. And the lotion is great for your skin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: Storm chances aside...Eps keeps looking colder in the LR (D11-15). With that look up top and on the west coast I would think we have a pretty good period in early dec of some sig neg departures. This is probably getting a bit granular given the lead time, but just to hone in on a specific window where there has been a decent storm signal, modeled temps are several degrees below average, so pretty cold. There is enough legit cold(and likely dry) air nearby though, and if we get a strong enough low with favorable track, not hard to imagine an event featuring frozen for much of the region. With that thermal gradient, looks like a low would want to form to our SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Last several runs of the GEFS want to really keep the pressure on the PV in the lr....Models are in more of an agreement with a mjo cycle 7-8-1 in early Dec that has some decent amplitude. Snow pack to grow from the plains/MW to SE Can and New England over the next 2 weeks. Things are shaping up.....(not a news flash, I know) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It wouldn't be winter without Mappy getting feisty. Of course! She's like the mama bear of this forum! (And @mappy I mean that in the best way You just have the air of "knock it off you two!" when we get unruly...lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It wouldn't be winter without Mappy getting feisty. Here’s the problem. It’s not winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 The lead in to our possible day 10 storm on the GFS is looking interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just misses (temp wise) on the day 10 storm but it is a very good look leading into it. Not far from a major hit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: [image clipped] Nice, H is in a decent spot, confluence, and the trough trending negative. I’d imagine we’d want the H a bit more SE from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: HM’s talking dirty Nobody talks dirty better than me, but hot damn HM is close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice, H is in a decent spot, confluence, and the trough trending negative. I’d imagine we’d want the H a bit more SE from there? Would probably want to see that high behind the low instead of ahead of it where it is escaping as the low comes up the coast. But at 10 days this is a great setup and we can start worrying about details if we can get it withing 5-7 days. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice, H is in a decent spot, confluence, and the trough trending negative. I’d imagine we’d want the H a bit more SE from there? I'd assume we'd like the HP a lil bit stronger as well... 1030mb is a bit weak 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 The most impressive feature by far on the 12z EPS is the high MSLP anomaly in the AO domain, for all 15 days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 @leesburg 04 Starting to look like less than 2 weeks... We'll know in about a week. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The most impressive feature by far on the 12z EPS is the high MSLP anomaly in the AO domain, for all 15 days. I was impressed with watching all the lower pressure anomalies at 500 marching across the south and then through our region every 2-2 1/2 days in the extended. If that is correct it could be a very active period of time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @leesburg 04 Starting to look like less than 2 weeks... We'll know in about a week. I'm counting on you bro....i mean literally counting 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 FaVorite3 looking similar to the old fart GFS with the D10-12 storm..50/50 moves along but doesnt tuck it's tail and sprint like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Was not aware these are out again. Seems now they are jumping around. December actually looks great and the best to me . I am not sure how much faith to put into these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 34 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm counting on you bro....i mean literally counting 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 00z run no help. Models likely to remain in flux till after Great Lakes Storm is passed. Scud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Jma 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Our possible Nov 30/Dec 1 storm probably hinges on how our early next week's storm is handled as it is pulling away. Notice on last nights GEFS that the storm is pulling out slowly and is just above Maine as any possible short wave is running through our south. Also notice how deep and strong this feature is. This is not a good setup as it squashes any energy that may come through as well as any chances of a storm through our locale. Now this is last nights EPS. Notice that our early next week storm is weaker and has progressed farther north and east vs. the previous example. Also it is swinging through the 50/50 region which is a favored spot for seeing amplification of systems on the east coast. The features are subtle because of smoothing but you do notice a kinking of the isobars around the Mississippi for our shortwave and a slight bulging on the east coast for the beginnings of ridging in front of the system. This is a far better look for possibilities of an east coast storm vs. the GEFS. If we continue to see the EPS advertise a weaker, quicker departing low from the NE on future runs we should see the signal for the shortwave and the ridging in front of it to strengthen. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 15 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Both GFS's still like the early Dec timeframe for a storm. And they are surprisingly similar in their evolution for so far out. Edit: Post edited to remove political content. I dont want to take a beatdown from Mappy 15 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It wouldn't be winter without Mappy getting feisty. 14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Of course! She's like the mama bear of this forum! (And @mappy I mean that in the best way You just have the air of "knock it off you two!" when we get unruly...lol) 14 hours ago, Scraff said: Here’s the problem. It’s not winter!! hahaha, oh you guys. 15 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: MSM (Methylsulfonylmethane) is great stuff. I highly recommend it. I take it daily. And the lotion is great for your skin. hahahahaha, I will keep it in mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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