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November/December Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr
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7 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The Euro at 240 looks real interesting. 

Hopefully the ridge developing over the Eastern plains doesnt link up with the fading/retrograding NAO ridge....that would be bad. A mid or full lat ridge centered over the Mississippi River longitude would basically equate to the pattern rolling over on itself. It's a long way out but keep that 50/50 there, keep the NAO ridge in tact or at least separate, and keep the bowling ball coming across and we might be in business. Like you said.....interesting. 

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I like it @C.A.P.E..  As the season shows it's hand I think you can give more weight to the panels that show what our background state looks like.  Aleutian low, +PNA/-EPO and hedging toward a -AO.  Not that the panels showing something different are wrong but even with the muted depiction you can still see the "background state" in there.  This run is a win imo.... 

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9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I like it @C.A.P.E..  As the season shows it's hand I think you can give more weight to the panels that show what our background state looks like.  Aleutian low, +PNA/-EPO and hedging toward a -AO.  Not that the panels showing something different are wrong but even with the muted depiction you can still see the "background state" in there.  This run is a win imo.... 

Yeah I feel really confident in a favorable PAC at this point, especially as we move through December and into Jan. The AO/NAO is still a bit up in the air, but I see nothing currently that suggests we endure a prolonged +AO. Fwiw, on the latest weeklies the AO looks neutral for much of the middle third of Dec, but then goes negative at the end of the month. I suspect the period that favors the best chances of a legit and persistent -NAO will be mid Jan into early March. Until then we will probably have some transient/bootleg NA blocking episodes.

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I feel really confident in a favorable PAC at this point, especially as we move through December and into Jan. The AO/NAO is still a bit up in the air, but I see nothing currently that suggests we endure a prolonged +AO. Fwiw, on the latest weeklies the AO looks neutral for much of the middle third of Dec, but then goes negative at the end of the month. I suspect the period that favors the best chances of a legit and persistent -NAO will be mid Jan into early March. Until then we will probably have some transient/bootleg NA blocking episodes.

If anything pressure continues on the PV - the weeklies might even be underestimating any -NAO and -AO  

 

 

 

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Just now, frd said:

If anything pressure continues on the PV - the weeklies might even be underestimating any -NAO and -AO  

 

 

 

Yeah I have been keeping an eye on the modeled strat PV perturbations. I guess it remains to be seen what the long term impacts will be. Just a hunch(based on how things have gone so far) but something tells me we wont see some prolonged re consolidation of the PV.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I have been keeping an eye on the modeled strat PV perturbations. I guess it remains to be seen what the long term impacts will be. Just a hunch(based on how things have gone so far) but something tells me we wont see some prolonged re consolidation of the PV.

Agree.....this fits too the backdrop of many winter forecasts, for example Isotherm's ,where he states the pressure will remain on the PV throughtout the winter in varying degrees. Nothing right now points to a powerful PV in the near or medium range 

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I like the countless good signs heading into not just December, but the winter as a whole. So far, anything bad that was advertised on previous models keeps busting and turning into a favorable pattern. I've seen this with the CFS, forecasting a warm November but that obviously is busting. I'm still on board with a decent start to December with a few threats to alleviate our PTSD (Post-Tracking stress disorder), and the DJF as a whole. I don't see any signs of a strong PV or a raging positive AO/NAO, instead that the upcoming winter will be fun (At least we are starting December with a not-craptastic pattern, given the consistency of warm/unfavorable December patterns for snow and cold that I've seen the past five years. Just my two cents.

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6 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

Pardon me all. I've reviewed many posts since yesterday. Are we here in Washington DC area suppose to get way below normal temps for Thanksgiving and Friday for sure? I have family coming in. Tyvm. 

Yes.  Tell them to dress for winter.

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@C.A.P.E.  Nice posts.  Assuming the pattern for Nov 30 - ~10 Dec still looks this ripe in another 4-5 days, I would start getting my hopes up.  It's really just an absolute classic MA snowstorm pattern.  A bit of a bummer it's coming so early in the season because in another month we'd have KU potential.  It's pretty amazing to see individual s/w packets on the GEFS and EPS in the Day 12+ time frame coming into the Pac coast and coming across the CONUS.  That's a robust signal.  

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@C.A.P.E.  Nice posts.  Assuming the pattern for Nov 30 - ~10 Dec still looks this ripe in another 4-5 days, I would start getting my hopes up.  It's really just an absolute classic MA snowstorm pattern.  A bit of a bummer it's coming so early in the season because in another month we'd have KU potential.  It's pretty amazing to see individual s/w packets on the GEFS and EPS in the Day 12+ time frame coming into the Pac coast and coming across the CONUS.  That's a robust signal.  

Agreed. This one sort of caught my eye today on the 12z run of the EPS. A chilly rain verbatim but its pretty far out and a pretty good look overall. Not a lot of super cold air in our source region but probably good enough, and still time for that to improve. Plus this is my birthday, so lets go for the 3rd instead of the 5th lol.

eps_precip_6hr_conus_55.thumb.png.f685762fdbf1dc0548b8206fa30de916.png

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