Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

November/December Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • WxUSAF pinned this topic
10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That panel should even excite the folks in the SE sub-forum. HP above the lakes, low pressure near the Maritimes, and look at that vortex about to move into 50-50 position under a strong block.

If you wanted some more good vibes check out Don S outlook for the winter, very high snowfall prediction and cold !   I guess this should have gone into the winter thread, not sure though.  

I tend to think of Don as a sensible and conservative forecaster. So when he forecasts along these lines of snow and cold, well it adds confidence to me at least that the coming winter will indeed be good.  

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That panel should even excite the folks in the SE sub-forum. HP above the lakes, low pressure near the Maritimes, and look at that vortex about to move into 50-50 position under a strong block.

The upper air features look pretty good, but the temps don't cold enough (for down here), as the source region isn't all that frigid.  The Fake Version 3 looks a little more promising, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, H2O said:

One blog i read isn't all that impressed with the -NAO and thinks the PV will consolidate again.  Not saying a torch by any means but just saying it will be PAC dominated the first half of Dec.

That may very well happen, and I made a post in the winter thread about the GEPS and CFS weeklies losing the -NAO by mid month. I think its pretty likely it stays negative until around then. Beyond that the pattern may become more Pac driven, but as long as the AO doesn't flip to raging positive we should be ok.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The upper air features look pretty good, but the temps don't cold enough (for down here), as the source region isn't all that frigid.  The Fake Version 3 looks a little more promising, though.

Climo is still a bit of a fight even for here in early December. Don't need super cold, just a supply of dry, cold air and a good storm track with that set up. Would have to be a legit low pressure though.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That may very well happen, and I made a post in the winter thread about the GEPS and CFS losing the -NAO by mid month. I think its pretty likely it stays negative until around then. Beyond that the pattern may become more Pac driven, but as long as the AO doesn't flip to raging positive we should be ok.

Please no raging positive AO...The few weak-moderate El Niños that have failed here have been because of that!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WxUSAF said:

In all honesty, if this was going into  January or February 1st, that’s a KU look.

Yeah its kind of a shame this is coming a month too soon. Whatever happens(or doesn't) its just fun as heck to have an advertised 500 mb pattern we can actually sink our teeth into heading into December for once. Dreams of a white Xmas are usually dead by now lol.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I've never seen the EPS and gefs in better agreement on day 15!  

Ohhh boy...gonna be a long 15+ days, one way or the other! (And if it still looks like that a week from now...and then 10 days...yep, tracking parade.) Man, seems like we are so close! It's getting harder and harder to temper excitement, but I think I'll hold it in till the end of next week...still gotta watch...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Sometimes you get a big ol’ block and the models just know what to do with it. Hopefully this time that holds true...

It’s true. Blocking patterns are stable and well forecast typically. Took a bit of time for the EPS to bite, but now it has it as last nights weeklies show.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I've never seen the EPS and gefs in better agreement on day 15!  

we have 15 days to meltdown and recover. BTW jb had the best forecast for this storm because he forecasted high snow amounts like he usually does. In this case..he was right lol

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s true. Blocking patterns are stable and well forecast typically. Took a bit of time for the EPS to bite, but now it has it as last nights weeklies show.

Yup. And the new weeklies have a -NAO straight through to the end. Man I hope that run is backed up by the next one.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

we have 15 days to meltdown and recover. BTW jb had the best forecast for this storm because he forecasted high snow amounts like he usually does. In this case..he was right lol

I do a lot of observing and not too much talking around here, but in this case it appeared to me that all of the evidence anyone needed was right in front of them.  JB said 2 days before the storm to take the Euro snow totals and take 75% of them to be real close.  He obviously took a lot more into account than just looking at the model but what I was amazed most at was how much "in denial" so many on here and in the media weather forecasting business were.  Look at the model consensus for accumulating snows that we had, for multiple runs, with some minor fluctuations, particularly in the last 24 hours before the event.  Yet, all I heard all over the place was "climo doesn't support this," "The ground is warm and it won't accumulate," "It's November, I will be happy with dusting," etc. etc.  All along, we had great moderate consensus staring right at us.  JMO, maybe the facts and model evaluation that everyone always does should not be outweighed by history, climo, and all those other factors that made a lot of people not see what was right in front of us.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...