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Nov 15/16 First Weenie Obs


RUNNAWAYICEBERG
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Measured 2.2" of 10:1 powder at 7 AM, with light snow grains at 20°.  5 AM flakes looked much better.  Expect to finish with 4-5" instead of the 7-8 forecast yesterday - easier to shovel out the woodpile.  Jackpot looks to be in SE NY - the HV area between I-84 and Tappan Zee got smoked, lots of 12-14" reports including 13.5 at Walden, where my wife's grandparents lived.  Top spot in NJ so far is 9", in the town where I grew up.

For some reason, the oak leaves that withstood all the wind earlier this week have yielded to today's light winds and snow.  Leaves were blowing around on the roads as I drove in (snow covered pavement but no problems) and leaves from the large oak by the office building here have almost covered the ground. 

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Overall.. giving myself a C ... C- on this gig.

I was right about the cold QPF being underestimated, but, I didn't do well with the impact behavior in these latter innings. 

We penetrated liquid farther N than I thought we would - looks like it terminated that punch ~ ASH's latitude... FIT to just S of EEN... Brian, I suspect was safe  up thatta way.

Quick review...It looks as though the 700 mb center arrive more over CT-RI as opposed to along Long Island, which was more at what I had in mind two days ago. In fact, at the time, the GFS sliced the 500 mb vort max S of LI too - that appears to have corrected in verification N as well...  I do believe that a vort translation 1.5 deg lat/lon SE of ISP .. probably shifts totality of transition this and thats ...  SE concomitantly and we'da been safe in these interior eastern zones.  As it were...nah so much. 

I awoke at 4:30ish for my nerd gawk ... and it was rattling at the sills with gossamer mist at the street lamps. The plow is what really woke me ...so I took the opportunity to sate my inner child. Anyway, the new fallen snow pack was in tact, and the flat top rail of the back deck had est 7" summit over top.  Got up 8 am?  3.5 matte under mist at 35 F ..lovely. 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You guys just got better snowgrowth. That deeper lift definitely slid more east than north. Man powder up here. 

That precip off to the east was on every model to miss up this way, More just over running stuff earlier, Its this second batch for here that should add another 2" or so, Radar is filling in.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It's also not helping that the wave mechanics are weakening as this is moving by this morning, too...

Radar is breaking apart ...almost smacks of just falling apart before this even has a chance to move away but it'll likely stray burst a slow death.

I said this to @butterfish55 and @TauntonBlizzard2013 via text.  Best dynamics are weakening/lifting north as the precip is propagating eastward.  Some may see a brief squall but nothing widespread.

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1 hour ago, Professional Lurker said:

Just got done with the driveway.  Light sleet with flakes mixed in.  Guesstimate 7" compacted.

Complete leaf debacle.  Took a pic of my yard disaster but the file is too big to upload.

 

leaf disaster is right. so many oakies on top of the snow, nevermind all the leaves that were still on the lawn. i hope this crap melts quickly so i can get it cleaned up before winter really sets in.

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8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I said this to @butterfish55 and @TauntonBlizzard2013 via text.  Best dynamics are weakening/lifting north as the precip is propagating eastward.  Some may see a brief squall but nothing widespread.

Yup!

Funny... several days ago, at the time the model blend did look somewhat similar to the 500 mb evolution back in Dec 2005 - went out of my way to comment. But, I think a key difference between then and what verified over the last 18 hours of this thing ...is storm consolidation?  

Back then, it got tight and tightened... The vmax cut right smack over top the densest thickness packing of the sounding, about quintessentially 1 deg lat/lon SE of ISP, while not losing mechanical momentum while doing so.

Contrasting, this one deviated off that more idealized model by riding somewhat more N of the gradient ... A  ... and B, weakening while doing so.

There's other parametric factors... The lead polar high was retreating more E and that prooobabbly didn't help? No...but, I feel the magnitude/anomaly of cold in place would have been sufficiently serving if the above attributes didn't help unravel this thing...which is what ultimately appears to have quasi-doomed the end game.

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