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CWG Winter Outlook - 2018-19


Deck Pic
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Good write-up, Matt.  Can't complain really, especially after the last couple of winters.  Even with the +3 to +4 call for December temperatures, the main thing is increasingly colder as the winter goes on and a lot more snow than we've seen going by what you are saying.  Looks like you all at CWG are going somewhat more back-loaded on the winter (or at least mostly post-December).  I feel pretty good about our prospects for a decent event or two, well into warning-level criteria territory.  Take it and run.

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15 hours ago, ohleary said:

Gonna bookmark this for review in April. 

I guess if people are asking for it, you have to give them something.

You know it is SOP to release an outlook. Whether me or someone else, CWG is always going to do one just like every media outfit. It’s low confidence every year. Which we state clearly. I’ve done one every winter since 04-05. I’d say my average is a C+. I think I’m better than a coin flip or magic 8-ball.  But not by much  

 

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, Ji said:

are you confident in the Dec blowtorch?

Not really.  But even if it is a cold month, we can usually count on DCA to have a few +16 departure days to erase all the negative departures. you can never assume bust. Because that 71/51 day might be lurking around the corner. Plus the classic midnight high of 66, even when afternoon temps are in the mid 40s. 

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The yapping about “it’s a coin flip” is silly and close minded. Three or four posters here have been doing this for 15+ years and have a confirmation rate of 65-70%. That’s not 50/50.  They explain in detail what they think the 500mb , nao ,ao,enso, etc will be. Or, they cull analog comparisons based on years of detailed record keeping and analysis. Either approach takes effort and the results are evident. Perhaps we can have one winter absent  chirping about “ lucky guessers”

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On 11/14/2018 at 10:50 AM, Deck Pic said:

You know it is SOP to release an outlook. Whether me or someone else, CWG is always going to do one just like every media outfit. It’s low confidence every year. Which we state clearly. I’ve done one every winter since 04-05. I’d say my average is a C+. I think I’m better than a coin flip or magic 8-ball.  But not by much  

 

 

 

 

That's fair!

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  • 3 weeks later...
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Here is the month by month breakdown:

  • December: Three to four degrees warmer than average
  • January: Two degrees warmer than average
  • February: Three to four degrees colder than average
  • March: We don’t make specific predictions for March, but we do predict it to be colder than average.

Here are the predicted snow amounts, by location:

  • Alexandria, Arlington and Prince George’s counties and the District: 18-24 inches
  • Fairfax, Loudoun, Montgomery  counties: 22-32 inches
  • Reagan National Airport (DCA):  16-20 inches (compared with a 15.4-inch average, 11 inch median)
  • Dulles International Airport  (IAD): 24-30 inches (compared with a 22.0 inch average, 16 inch median)
  • Baltimore-Washington International  Marshall Airport (BWI): 22-28 inches (compared with a 20.1 inch average,  15 inch median). 
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