• Member Statistics

    16,728
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Stormheartgypsy
    Newest Member
    Stormheartgypsy
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Deck Pic

CWG Winter Outlook - 2018-19

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

If December starts cold that means Christmas in shorts to get that 3 to 4 degrees above 

Man, you aint lyin. That's exactly how it goes down. There's something very real about atmospheric memory over multiple decades. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gonna bookmark this for review in April. 

I guess if people are asking for it, you have to give them something.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, you aint lyin. That's exactly how it goes down. There's something very real about atmospheric memory over multiple decades. 

Ha!  Might be reminiscent of Dec. 24/25, 2015 when it was damn near uncomfortably muggy out on Christmas Eve!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good write-up, Matt.  Can't complain really, especially after the last couple of winters.  Even with the +3 to +4 call for December temperatures, the main thing is increasingly colder as the winter goes on and a lot more snow than we've seen going by what you are saying.  Looks like you all at CWG are going somewhat more back-loaded on the winter (or at least mostly post-December).  I feel pretty good about our prospects for a decent event or two, well into warning-level criteria territory.  Take it and run.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, ohleary said:

Gonna bookmark this for review in April. 

I guess if people are asking for it, you have to give them something.

You know it is SOP to release an outlook. Whether me or someone else, CWG is always going to do one just like every media outfit. It’s low confidence every year. Which we state clearly. I’ve done one every winter since 04-05. I’d say my average is a C+. I think I’m better than a coin flip or magic 8-ball.  But not by much  

 

 

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Ji said:

are you confident in the Dec blowtorch?

Not really.  But even if it is a cold month, we can usually count on DCA to have a few +16 departure days to erase all the negative departures. you can never assume bust. Because that 71/51 day might be lurking around the corner. Plus the classic midnight high of 66, even when afternoon temps are in the mid 40s. 

  • Like 3
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The yapping about “it’s a coin flip” is silly and close minded. Three or four posters here have been doing this for 15+ years and have a confirmation rate of 65-70%. That’s not 50/50.  They explain in detail what they think the 500mb , nao ,ao,enso, etc will be. Or, they cull analog comparisons based on years of detailed record keeping and analysis. Either approach takes effort and the results are evident. Perhaps we can have one winter absent  chirping about “ lucky guessers”

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Three or four posters here have been doing this for 15+ years and have a confirmation rate of 65-70%

Show the stats. Would love to see it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ohleary said:

Show the stats. Would love to see it.

Been hearing that forever also. They have been posted many times before. If you have contrary evidence, provide it 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/14/2018 at 10:13 PM, Deck Pic said:

CWG has all my outlooks going back to 05-06. Feel free to look and judge. 

Will do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

On 11/14/2018 at 10:50 AM, Deck Pic said:

You know it is SOP to release an outlook. Whether me or someone else, CWG is always going to do one just like every media outfit. It’s low confidence every year. Which we state clearly. I’ve done one every winter since 04-05. I’d say my average is a C+. I think I’m better than a coin flip or magic 8-ball.  But not by much  

 

 

 

 

That's fair!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/13/2018 at 4:34 PM, leesburg 04 said:

If December starts cold that means Christmas in shorts to get that 3 to 4 degrees above 

I've decided to reverse this to if December starts warm we are going to need super cold to end December to come down to only +3 or 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can someone copy and paste the contents of the article here so I can read it... Washington Post is making me pay and that is depressing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is the month by month breakdown:

  • December: Three to four degrees warmer than average
  • January: Two degrees warmer than average
  • February: Three to four degrees colder than average
  • March: We don’t make specific predictions for March, but we do predict it to be colder than average.

Here are the predicted snow amounts, by location:

  • Alexandria, Arlington and Prince George’s counties and the District: 18-24 inches
  • Fairfax, Loudoun, Montgomery  counties: 22-32 inches
  • Reagan National Airport (DCA):  16-20 inches (compared with a 15.4-inch average, 11 inch median)
  • Dulles International Airport  (IAD): 24-30 inches (compared with a 22.0 inch average, 16 inch median)
  • Baltimore-Washington International  Marshall Airport (BWI): 22-28 inches (compared with a 20.1 inch average,  15 inch median). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.