11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion

[dmillz25]

WWA for the city and nassau

[MJO812]

Wow ukie now has 3-6 inches for the coast and more inland

[sferic]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wow ukie now has 3-6 inches for the coast and more inland

Map? Nassau county too?

[Gravity Wave]

WSW for immediate N and W suburbs.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1229 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

NJZ002-103-NYZ068>070-160900-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.181115T1800Z-181116T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0009.181115T1800Z-181116T0900Z/
Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
Including the cities of West Milford, Ringwood, Pompton Lakes,
Wanaque, Bloomingdale, Fair Lawn, Paramus, Ridgewood,
Elmwood Park, Wyckoff, Ramsey, Oakland, Putnam Valley,
Lake Carmel, Mahopac, Carmel, Putnam Lake, New City,
Spring Valley, Nanuet, Pearl River, Monsey, Stony Point, Suffern,
Ossining, Peekskill, Jefferson Valley, Tarrytown, Dobbs Ferry,
Mount Kisco, and North Tarrytown
1229 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and then mixed precipitation expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of
  around one tenth of an inch expected. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2
  inches per hour possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic and Western Bergen
  Counties. In New York, Putnam, Rockland and Northern
  Westchester Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

Map? Nassau county too?

Yes

[MJO812]

Upton now has 2-5 inches for NYC area

WWA

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Upton now has 2-5 inches for NYC area

WWA

That's the old "oh s**t" low confidence range. 

[MJO812]

2 inches in Baltimore

[NJwx85]

Most of the interior has been upgraded to a warning. 

[TJW014]

Still moderate to heavy rain here for the past hour. Easily have at least a half-inch of rain so far.

38/37 

[West Point, NY]

7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's the old "oh s**t" low confidence range. 

Flamethrower?

[SnoSki14]

Coming down nicely, first snow of the season. Dews are still in the mid 20s.

Already seeing grass whiten up.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, West Mtn NY said:

Flamethrower?

Yep. Can't see more than getting more than an inch or two in NYC.

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

Flamethrower?

And if you're going to troll at least use the proper context. It was describing a model run that was an absolute torch

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yep. Can't see more than getting more than an inch or two in NYC.

What?

[SnowGoose69]

And here comes the CT river valley dry punch.  Snow shield starting to slow as it approaches the metro but continues advancing over WRN NJ.  It happens every time

[MJO812]

We have been through this many times

Models are not good with cad situations.

[weathermedic]

Upton's 12:45pm AFD update:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A 1009 mb low was analyzed along the SE NC coast. This low will
track up the coast today as high pressure drifts towards the
Canadian Maritimes, then over or just off Long Island Fri AM,
and past Cape Cod by Fri aftn.

Significant update based on latest radar trend snowing hand of
heavier precip developing from DC metro to southern NJ, which
high resolution guidance including the NAM/HRRR/RAP bring into
the area during late afternoon and earlier evening. Despite
easterly flow, temps upstream along the south coast of New
England were in the mid 30s with dewpoints in the lower 20s, so
do not expect too much in the way of maritime moderation at
least into this evening. So the overall trend is for colder and
snowier going into early this evening. NAM may be a bit too
cold in the blyr, but we also started out the day with lower
dewpoints and so greater potential for temps to crash close to
freezing with onset of steady precip this afternoon. Period of
steady snow looks to be heavier and of longer duration than
initially expected, and warmer air aloft does not look to make
it in until about 23Z-00Z around NYC, and to interior sections
til late evening.

With the above in mind, issued winter storm warnings for the
interior where snowfall amounts have been bumped up into the
4-8 inch range, and winter wx advisories have been extended
into NYC and Long Island for 2-5 inch snowfall, with the higher
amounts generally farther away from the immediate coast. Also
bumped up amts along the CT coastline, and the coastal zones
could see some 6-inch amounts north of I-95. Timing of snow in
most places should cause significant disruptions to the
evening commute.

Warm/dry slot should work its way in tonight, with precip
changing over to sleet and then freezing rain. Up to 2 tenths of
an inch ice accretion fcst for portions of the interior. Storm
total snow and ice graphics are posted.

Bl should warm sufficiently along the coasts to limit the fzra
threat there. Should winds there not behave as fcst and back to
the N, perhaps due to the influence of a developing cstl front,
a period of icing would be possible in NYC and portions of wrn
Long Island early this eve.

Wind speeds have been increased in the fcst as well. Speeds of
50 kt were evident blw 2kft in the 00Z NAM. The other modeling
was weaker, so for now a wind advy was not issued. Gusts however
have been increased to 45 mph at the coasts. Peak winds are
tngt, although another burst is possible early Fri as the storm
exits.

[West Point, NY]

4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yep. Can't see more than getting more than an inch or two in NYC.

Last night it was "zero" 

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

We have been through this many times

Models are not good with cad situations.

Nor do they sniff out mid level warmth well either. I'm hoping to get crushed as well. I'm just skeptical.

[BxEngine]

Looks like its time for timeouts already. Awesome. 

[Stormlover74]

Upgraded to 5-7" 

[dWave]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Over an inch of snow in D.C

at Regan National sitting in the Potomac...that means probably like 2"+ in a lot of the District itself.

NWS had to put up the Winter Weather Advisory and WSW N&W for us

[West Point, NY]

5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

And if you're going to troll at least use the proper context. It was describing a model run that was an absolute torch

You were using it to back your constant downplaying of the storm in and around the city so it is fair game. 

[Rtd208]

Light snow has begun here.

[WarrenCtyWx]

First flakes beginning in Northern Warren County. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Light snow has begun here.

Coming down at a good clip already

[Snowlover11]

holy crap upgraded to 4-8”!

[Cyg]

First flakes here in NW Union county

[Rtd208]

My temp has actually gone up to 35 here. I expect that to fall back a bit.