11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion

[MJO812]

Interior is going to get a nice snowfall

Enjoy

[Ericjcrash]

12k snow depth map seems reasonable. Probably overdone for NYC and a little underdone in CT and NW jersey but generally solid.

[RockerfellerSnow]

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

12k snow depth map seems reasonable. Probably overdone for NYC and a little underdone in CT and NW jersey but generally solid.

I disagree this has a chance of never changing to rain. Sleet and freezing rain or drizzle while we dry slot than we get a second round with the ccb

[Ericjcrash]

4 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said:

I disagree this has a chance of never changing to rain. Sleet and freezing rain or drizzle while we dry slot than we get a second round with the ccb

Sleet and freezing rain NW is probable but won't help snow accumulation. And good luck with that wraparound snow. Someone in jersey probably gets an inch on the back end but nothing to write home about. Often overstated and it scoots NE rapidly. Take what you can get given the date but the wish casting is already out of hand, I want it to snow just as much as the next guy.

[MJO812]

3k Nam has 1-3 inches for NYC

Quite possible

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said:

I disagree this has a chance of never changing to rain. Sleet and freezing rain or drizzle while we dry slot than we get a second round with the ccb

Quite possible but don't count on wrap around snow.

[Ericjcrash]

0z is definitely better than 18z 3k.

[White Gorilla]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Quite possible but don't count on wrap around snow.

But isn't this synoptically different than the usual wrap around prediction scenarios? 

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

But isn't this synoptically different than the usual wrap around prediction scenarios? 

It's a robust ULL for sure, but its moving quickly and BL is warm by then. But there should be some nice convective stuff in there.

[Ericjcrash]

6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

But isn't this synoptically different than the usual wrap around prediction scenarios? 

And it's way too far north.

[SnowGoose69]

17 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

But isn't this synoptically different than the usual wrap around prediction scenarios? 

Not much cold air to be pulled in and it’s not a fully vertically stacked dynamic storm 

[White Gorilla]

Well then we hope for the best for a front end thump 

[Ericjcrash]

RGEM is really close to two hours of really heavy snow. Smidge warm. Tease.

[allgame830]

29/16 currently 

[RockerfellerSnow]

Thunder snow?

i think we wetbulb

wet bulb is when the precipitation hits the ground as a result of drying out atmosphere. It could turn a normally warmer airmass cool down abruptly. Another thing is we’re going to heavy straight heavy snow for 6 hours it looks like. And once we hit night the models may get iffy on seeing the cold air from nightfall. No sun definitely helps put it that way. Regardless I think we get a good thump of at least 2 but could go as high as 5-6 inches if things go best where most of the heavy precipitation falls as snow and we get a few light showers of either sleet or freezing drizzle. It could turn obviously into rain too but notice when nighttime hits on models we get a flash of chilled air, and as the low is intensifying resulting thunder snow!?

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I wouldn’t expect a ton of melting if the rates are decent given low sun angle and also the fact it’s been relatively cold recently.  Obviously pavement in the city won’t see much but I think it’ll accumulate quickly on the grass everywhere 

 

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it will stick to everything outside of main roads

The mid level warm punch will break some weenie hearts tomorrow. 

[weatherlogix]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

The mid level warm punch will break some weenie hearts tomorrow. 

What's tomorrows date?

[Dino]

00z GFS playing hard to get. 

 

 

[Ericjcrash]

5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

What's tomorrows date?

Emphasis on weenie. Gfs all out rainstorm. They will toss it now but in 3 weeks when it shows a crazy solution at 180 hours it will be paraded around like a triple crown winner.

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

The mid level warm punch will break some weenie hearts tomorrow. 

I don't think anyone reasonable expects much in the immediate NYC area. 

[donsutherland1]

Since 1869, New York City has had only 15 days on which measurable snowfall (amounts of 0.1" or more) fell on or before November 15. Such snowfalls have occurred, on average, once every 9.9 years. The last year during which there was a measurable snowfall on or before November 15 was 2012.

The list of such dates is below:

October 15, 1876: 0.5"
November 7, 1878: 0.1"
November 6, 1879: 2.5"
November 1, 1887: 0.1"
November 11, 1887: 0.1"
November 9, 1892: 2.3"
November 15, 1906: 1.0"
November 14, 1908: 0.5"
November 15, 1908: 0.5"
November 14, 1911: 1.0"
October 30, 1925: 0.8"
November 5, 1933: 0.1"
November 6, 1933: 0.1"
October 20, 1952: 0.5"
November 6, 1953: 2.2"
November 11, 1987: 1.1"
October 29, 2011: 2.9"
November 7, 2012: 4.3"
November 8, 2012: 0.4"

A storm coming up from the southeastern United States will likely produce measurable snowfall in Central Park, as a burst of wet snow moves into region tomorrow afternoon. Even as the snow will give way to sleet and then rain, Central Park will likely pick up 0.5" to perhaps 1.0" snow. The daily record is 1.0", which fell in 1906.

Across the northern Middle Atlantic and Northeastern United States, many locations will see accumulations. Several cities could approach or exceed their daily record snowfall for November 15.

Below is a chart that lists season-to-date snowfall, daily record snowfall for November 15, and my initial thinking about accumulations.

[RockerfellerSnow]

4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Emphasis on weenie. Gfs all out rainstorm. They will toss it now but in 3 weeks when it shows a crazy solution at 180 hours it will be paraded around like a triple crown winner.

Gfs always does this. It’s great with track and time but a lot of times it doesn’t record the dynamics of the system and it essentially fails in the precipitation types in winter months.

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I don't think anyone reasonable expects much in the immediate NYC area. 

Until the EURO reverses I would say 1-2 possibly 3 for NYC area in some lucky spots and 2-4 locally 5 NW

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Until the EURO reverses I would say 1-2 possibly 3 for NYC area in some lucky spots and 2-4 locally 5 NW

Like I said.....other than the time of year being a tad early for snow, 1-3 is not something to get all hot and bothered about, especially if a lot of rain is gonna wash it away. And I doubt it will be that much. Yet I have people at work expecting 5-8 inches in the Middlesex County area so that's what happens in the age of social media.

[SnowDemon]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Like I said.....other than the time of year being a tad early for snow, 1-3 is not something to get all hot and bothered about, especially if a lot of rain is gonna wash it away. And I doubt it will be that much. Yet I have people at work expecting 5-8 inches in the Middlesex County area so that's what happens in the age of social media.

Speak for yourself. It's November. This is essentially a bonus.

[NycStormChaser]

13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Like I said.....other than the time of year being a tad early for snow, 1-3 is not something to get all hot and bothered about, especially if a lot of rain is gonna wash it away. And I doubt it will be that much. Yet I have people at work expecting 5-8 inches in the Middlesex County area so that's what happens in the age of social media.

Bingo. It will be a slushy mess that gets washed away. I hope I'm wrong but I have a feeling the rain will changeover quickly. 

[NJwx85]

The GFS thermal profiles are garbage, we go through this with every storm. Trust the high res mesoscale models and the Euro for temps.

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

In our part of Long Island, if you see snow/sleet for long enough to accumulate anywhere, call that a win. And a very nice event for Nov 15th. This will be a much better event a little distance into N NJ and S NY. 

Hopefully where I’ll be moving soon (Huntington Station) will do well this winter.

Welcome to to the dark side

[HeadInTheClouds]

29 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Emphasis on weenie. Gfs all out rainstorm. They will toss it now but in 3 weeks when it shows a crazy solution at 180 hours it will be paraded around like a triple crown winner.

The GooFuS is a garbage model and I would say that if it was calling for a foot of snow. 

[RockerfellerSnow]

Thundersnow