ForestHillWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I like the RGEM showing 9" near Stewart, and almost nothing right down the river! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Dino said: Well, it could be worse for the coast. Looks like T to 2" in NYC. By the way, wow did this turn into a big one for inland areas! Forecast for State College is 4-6" of snow and sleet so those maps are probably off or the forecasts will end up too low. On this day in 1995 they had nearly 18" of heavy wet snow with temps at 33-34 for the duration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 NAM on board with backside ULL snows now early Friday morning. This snow will be underforecasted. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: NAM on board with backside ULL snows now early Friday morning. This snow will be underforecasted. 990mb low just offshore is nothing to sneeze at. Morning timing also helps. Additionally, no need to be upset if this is a bust, any frozen precip in Nov is hard to come by. I think we average like 0.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Snow should come in between 1-2PM from Southwest to Northeast and persist for a few hours. First areas to changeover will be North of Philly into Western Central NJ by 4PM. The city should then mix with rain around 5PM. At that time, the heavier precip should be overhead and signs point to some dynamic cooling taking place. The city and coast should be stuck in a mix until around 8PM, possibly lasting a bit longer before finally changing over to rain. Further N&W, things become icy, with a warm push gradually flipping over NE NJ around 10-11PM. Further inland in places like Vernon and West Milford, they probably never get above freezing at the surface. Then everyone flips back over to snow as the ULL swings through around sunrise and 1-2PM it's all over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Snow should come in between 1-2PM from Southwest to Northeast and persist for a few hours. First areas to changeover will be North of Philly into Western Central NJ by 4PM. The city should then mix with rain around 5PM. At that time, the heavier precip should be overhead and signs point to some dynamic cooling taking place. The city and coast should be stuck in a mix until around 8PM, possibly lasting a bit longer before finally changing over to rain. Further N&W, things become icy, with a warm push gradually flipping over NE NJ around 10-11PM. Further inland in places like Vernon and West Milford, they probably never get above freezing at the surface. Then everyone flips back over to snow as the ULL swings through around sunrise and 1-2PM it's all over. Could NYC/LI get anything to stick with the backend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 36 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It shows several inches Wrong map It's not the wrong map. This shows what's on the ground. Not magically 10:1 sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: It's not the wrong map. This shows what's on the ground. Not magically 10:1 sleet That’s not how it’s measured. They measure several times before the storm finishes. I’m calling for 2 inches for Central Park. Heavy wet snow on a cold ground for 3 hours is at least 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Snow should come in between 1-2PM from Southwest to Northeast and persist for a few hours. First areas to changeover will be North of Philly into Western Central NJ by 4PM. The city should then mix with rain around 5PM. At that time, the heavier precip should be overhead and signs point to some dynamic cooling taking place. The city and coast should be stuck in a mix until around 8PM, possibly lasting a bit longer before finally changing over to rain. Further N&W, things become icy, with a warm push gradually flipping over NE NJ around 10-11PM. Further inland in places like Vernon and West Milford, they probably never get above freezing at the surface. Then everyone flips back over to snow as the ULL swings through around sunrise and 1-2PM it's all over. You think it flips that late in Bergen Cty? If so, you get a good dump of snow. Would've thought by 8 or 9 the mix line would slide North of you. 7 hrs of snow on front end of this will not be a marginal event. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, RockerfellerSnow said: That’s not how it’s measured. They measure several times before the storm finishes. I’m calling for 2 inches for Central Park. Heavy wet snow on a cold ground for 3 hours is at least 2 inches And you guys can troll all you want and live and die by a 10:1 map, the same 10:1 maps showing 3' in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: It's not the wrong map. This shows what's on the ground. Not magically 10:1 sleet If you think the Catskills and Berks will have 3 in OTG on Friday morning I have a bridge to sell you. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: That’s not how it’s measured. They measure several times before the storm finishes. I’m calling for 2 inches for Central Park. Heavy wet snow on a cold ground for 3 hours is at least 2 inches FYI I could be wrong but I believe you said an Inch and a half way back pages ago in your wager, IF IM wrong so be it but some guys in here are really nitpickers so I don't want you to have to disappear for a month over .50 or a half = just a weenie trying to help you out now back to our program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: FYI I could be wrong but I believe you said an Inch and a half way back pages ago in your wager, IF IM wrong so be it but some guys in here are really nitpickers so I don't want you to have to disappear for a month over .50 or a half = just a weenie trying to help you out now back to our program Bet is 1 1/2 but I think we get 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: If you think the Catskills and Berks will have 3 in OTG on Friday morning I have a bridge to sell you. LOL I like this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: Bet is 1 1/2 but I think we get 2 Personally I hope we get more than that but guys will hang u in here for an eighth of an inch,,,,its already a tough crowd and its only our first snow threat. In keeping with the thread I like the look of the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Right now I am looking at radar and the snow / mix line seems to be going from the MS/AL/TN border to Caducah IL in Southern Illinois, while the Mix / Rain line is going from that point to Louisville KY. There seems to be a lot more sleet present than the NAM / RGEM shows, pushing th eline a little bit east. This might not mean much but we could see more sleet than predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 25 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: That’s not how it’s measured. They measure several times before the storm finishes. I’m calling for 2 inches for Central Park. Heavy wet snow on a cold ground for 3 hours is at least 2 inches if 2" falls, that would set a new daily record. Since 1869, NYC has had two measurable snowfalls on November 15: 1906: 1.0" (daily record) 1908: 0.5" (11/14-15/1908: 1.0") I'm currently thinking 0.5" to perhaps 1.0". I do note the Euro's much more aggressive solution, but will wait for the overnight runs to make any meaningful adjustments. I do think the GFS might be too warm in its thermal profile. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Guys at least half of what those weenie maps are showing falls as sleet or freezing rain. At a minimum they should be cut in half, then you need to take off more to account for melting in urban areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: NAM on board with backside ULL snows now early Friday morning. This snow will be underforecasted. I need that blue to be 25-30 miles farther south and I'll get in on something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Para gfs now has a few inches for the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Guys at least half of what those weenie maps are showing falls as sleet or freezing rain. At a minimum they should be cut in half, then you need to take off more to account for melting in urban areas. I wouldn’t expect a ton of melting if the rates are decent given low sun angle and also the fact it’s been relatively cold recently. Obviously pavement in the city won’t see much but I think it’ll accumulate quickly on the grass everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I wouldn’t expect a ton of melting if the rates are decent given low sun angle and also the fact it’s been relatively cold recently. Obviously pavement in the city won’t see much but I think it’ll accumulate quickly on the grass everywhere I'm not so sure it'll stick to the grass at first. Might take an hour or two. A few nights ago with that hard freeze, it was 23 where I am. And the ground wasn't frozen. Also, they're already salting the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: I'm not so sure it'll stick to the grass at first. Might take an hour or two. A few nights ago with that hard freeze, it was 23 where I am. And the ground wasn't frozen. Also, they're already salting the roads. It's already near freezing and will be in 20s tonight so it'll stick to grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I wouldn’t expect a ton of melting if the rates are decent given low sun angle and also the fact it’s been relatively cold recently. Obviously pavement in the city won’t see much but I think it’ll accumulate quickly on the grass everywhere Agreed but I think the problem is that the heavier rates won’t coincide with the coldest temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I could see a scenario where the area north of 80 gets hammered, very often the area just North of the mix line sees the heaviest snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's already near freezing and will be in 20s tonight so it'll stick to grass it will stick to everything outside of main roads 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The near straight south to north approach is ideal for the city to over perform on these sort of events but the problem is the time of year with insanely warm water temps. Generally if you are above 44-46 it’s extremely hard to stay frozen for long unless you have a wind on the north side of 040-050. We used to use a rule that if your water temps were 45 or higher your 850s had to be -10 or colder or you usually switched over quickly with an onshore flow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The near straight south to north approach is ideal for the city to over perform on these sort of events but the problem is the time of year with insanely warm water temps. Generally if you are above 44-46 it’s extremely hard to stay frozen for long unless you have a wind on the north side of 040-050. We used to use a rule that if your water temps were 45 or higher your 850s had to be -10 or colder or you usually switched over quickly with an onshore flow Does warm water ever enhance snowfall? Is it possible, say, to get an enhancing effect with an ENE wind off the Long Island Sound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said: Does warm water ever enhance snowfall? Is it possible, say, to get an enhancing effect with an ENE wind off the Long Island Sound? It does often in western Suffolk in nor’easters but you need a 13C degree difference at least between the 850 temp and water temp for that to occur so generally it’s a system in the middle of winter where that occurs. You will see places like West Hills sometimes have snowfall maxes during nor’easters because of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 DT has 2-4 inches for NYC and a lot more to the north and west Upton now has 1-2 inches for NYC with nothing in eastern LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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