Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 FWIW (not much) the Canadian is considerably colder with a slightly more favorable wind direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I disagree, normally you want to see 925mb temps below freezing to get sleet. In this case the column is above freezing except for the lowest level. It's below freezing up to around 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, mgerb said: It's below freezing up to around 850. I apologize if I am misinterpreting the sounding that I posted but I was under the impression that anything to the left of the hashed line was below freezing and from my untrained eyes it appeared to me that it was only below 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Oh boy, let's see what the FV3-GFS has for it's crazy snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Oh boy, let's see what the FV3-GFS has for it's crazy snowfall. Not much. Its warmer again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Not much. Its warmer again. Still would be best-case-scenario for me. I expect straight-up rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: Still would be best-case-scenario for me. I expect straight-up rain. Down by you that's a good expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Not much. Its warmer again. It has a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Ukie also shows a few inches for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Down by you that's a good expectation. Lol it sucks being that close to the ocean. it either kills my snow total, like it did in 3 of the 4 storms in March, or I get a thumping. I can get 5 inches. Pine Barrens 5 miles inland get a foot, and the beach gets rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie also shows a few inches for the coast Water is 58. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, pstar3182 said: Water is 58. Not happening. I read 52-54 in ocean from boat on Saturday. Should be 50-52 by now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: I apologize if I am misinterpreting the sounding that I posted but I was under the impression that anything to the left of the hashed line was below freezing and from my untrained eyes it appeared to me that it was only below 925mb. The purple line? That's the parcel lapse rate. C'mon, I know you didn't really think the entire atmosphere was above freezing all the way to the tropopause. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, ag3 said: I read 52-54 in ocean from boat on Saturday. Should be 50-52 by now. Out of Shark River out to 15 mile wrecks, reading 56-58. But yeah, same point so warm still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Might be too low in the higher elevations, however this is much more probable than some of those crazy snow map outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The purple line? That's the parcel lapse rate. C'mon, I know you didn't really think the entire atmosphere was above freezing all the way to the tropopause. No, the black hashed line that runs from bottom left to upper right. I realize now what I did wrong and I can see the warm layer between 850-700mb. So it's warm and then below freezing and then border line at the surface, agree that it could go either way between IP and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 That's a potent upper level low Friday morning, wonder if we could see some dynamic back-end snows from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: That's a potent upper level low Friday morning, wonder if we could see some dynamic back-end snows from it. That's what I'm hoping for. But, it looks a little dry to the south where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: That's a potent upper level low Friday morning, wonder if we could see some dynamic back-end snows from it. Way N&W, yes. Most of us, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 EURO looks slightly better than 0Z for NYC metro. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018111412/new-jersey/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20181116-0000z.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, mikem81 said: EURO looks slightly better than 0Z for NYC metro. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018111412/new-jersey/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20181116-0000z.html Few inches for the city This is going to come down to how much front end thump we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, mikem81 said: EURO looks slightly better than 0Z for NYC metro. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018111412/new-jersey/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20181116-0000z.html Interesting. Most layers colder than 0z and stay cold thru WAA precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Interesting. Most layers colder than 0z and stay cold thru WAA precip. I really don't think most areas N&W of the 287/80 interchange ever get above freezing until Friday morning when most of the appreciable precip is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Few inches for the city This is going to come down to how much front end thump we get. Euro+Ukie combo is tough to beat especially this close to an event. We'll see if the Meso models tick colder at 18Z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Euro+Ukie combo is tough to beat especially this close to an event. We'll see if the Meso models tick colder at 18Z. Walking a fine line. My gut says sleetfest especially if utnticks colder again tonight. EURO ticking colder is intriguing. Still not too optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 the timing is so critical with this. it could either be a sleet bomb or several hours of heavy accumulating snow (mostly from the city west). the worst of it happens during rush hour which makes this even more annoying 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, pstar3182 said: Water is 58. Not happening. if the wind has a northerly component it doesn't matter what the water temps are 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if the wind has a northerly component it doesn't matter what the water temps are Yep. 10/29/11. 5" of snow here in Metuchen with trees down everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Early on NAM is a flamethrower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 NAM looks like its gonna be west and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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