White Gorilla Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Wow, hard to believe we are back at this again with snow maps and all.. Feels like we just did this yesterday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Upton has 1-3" in my point and click. I'd be shocked if that verified. Thursday A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before 1pm, then snow and sleet likely between 1pm and 4pm, then rain, snow, and sleet after 4pm. High near 39. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Upton has 1-3" in my point and click. I'd be shocked if that verified. Thursday A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before 1pm, then snow and sleet likely between 1pm and 4pm, then rain, snow, and sleet after 4pm. High near 39. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Already up 400% in some areas from initial forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 You would be shocked if you get 1 inch is snow? Don’t see how that’s unreasonable at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: You would be shocked if you get 1 inch is snow? Don’t see how that’s unreasonable at all. Ok let me rephrase....I'd be mildy surprised with more than an inch. Shocked by more than 2. I expect up to an inch of mainly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Based on the storms we had this past March in marginal set ups, I wouldn’t expect much accumulation in Manhattan with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Largely being overlooked but still like the potential on Friday for snow associated with the passing of the ULL just to the Southeast. Signs of banding features on the 18z GFS over NJ, SE NY and NE PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Based on the storms we had this past March in marginal set ups, I wouldn’t expect much accumulation in Manhattan with this one. Totally different context. Insolation now is much lower (akin to late January) than in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Totally different context. Insolation now is much lower (akin to late January) than in March. Sun angle was overrated with those March storms last year. The last one (which had the worst sun angle) was easily the best producer for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 42 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: You would be shocked if you get 1 inch is snow? Don’t see how that’s unreasonable at all. It's very possible Models tend to underdo cad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Para gfs has several inches for the interior and few inches for NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Can't wait for what the 18Z Euro says 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Sun angle was overrated with those March storms last year. The last one (which had the worst sun angle) was easily the best producer for the city. It was just warm with those storms. Temps never made it below freezing that and it was late March. This one is low sun angle and below freezing temps 12 hours before so the ground is going to be cold. It’ll stick. Just kinda mad we going to change to rain otherwise this could have been a big storm for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 We’re only about 5 weeks away from the Winter solstice. Sun angle is similar to the end of January so shouldn’t be an issue. It’s also been below normal temperature wise with many nights well below feeezing inland. Don’t think snow will have a problem sticking if it comes down moderately. Really no comparison to a March storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 We'll see what tomorrow models do, but I think 2-4", 3-5" is a good call for my area at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 7 hours ago, Stormman96 said: Sucks i only get 17 now. Lol these models are all awful The models aren't awful if you know how to interpret them. 6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Going to be a long winter if we keep falling for these "snowfall" maps Ignore them for a storm like this. 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: storm after storm after storm over the past 10 years and nobody seems to have learned anything It's quite unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Sorry to go a little off topic, and It's still very far out, but the last week in November looks to be an active one looking at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I'm going to enjoy my 20 minutes of sleet before it turns to a cold rain. Honestly I'm just happy the pattern is so active. November will be well AN Precip wise, it already is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm going to enjoy my 20 minutes of sleet before it turns to a cold rain. Honestly I'm just happy the pattern is so active. November will be well AN Precip wise, it already is. Why are you always negative? LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Considering that the layers from 700 mB to 1000 mB won't be perfectly aligned. I'd say that the snowfall ratios will be hovering around 8:1 for the entire event. Mainly for the Coastal Plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 At this point, measurable snowfall, possibly even in Central Park, seems to be a reasonable prospect. Boston also looks to be in line to receive a measurable snowfall. The last storm to bring measurable snowfall to New York City and Boston in November occurred on November 7-8, 2012. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: At this point, measurable snowfall, possibly even in Central Park, seems to be a reasonable prospect. Boston also looks to be in line to receive a measurable snowfall. The last storm to bring measurable snowfall to New York City and Boston in November occurred on November 7-8, 2012. I checked the numbers today and since records began there has only been 6 days between 11/1-11/15 with over one inch of snow and 3 with over 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Considerably colder aloft thru 35 hours on the NAM fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Considerably colder aloft thru 35 hours on the NAM fwiw The NAM has become very good at sniffing out CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I checked the numbers today and since records began there has only been 6 days between 11/1-11/15 with over one inch of snow and 3 with over 2. There was a big snowstorm here on Thanksgiving recently, might have been 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM has become very good at sniffing out CAD. Yeah. 0z keeps surface cold but 850s torch quicker. Looks like a few hours of fun then some ping to light rain with WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 NYC sees 2 or 3 hours of snow at most before the rain takes over. As Eric said above, 850s are really warm across most of PA too. Freezing Rain will be an issue as 2m temps are 28 to 30 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: NYC sees 2 or 3 hours of snow at most before the rain takes over. As Eric said above, 850s are really warm across most of PA too. Freezing Rain will be an issue as 2m temps are 28 to 30 degrees 2 inches/hr if it comes in like a wall. There’s your 4 inches that thunder model predicted nam looks best so far Edit: ccb? Barely any rain for the city just heavy snow and sleet now let’s see if the next frame shows any snow for the ccb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: NYC sees 2 or 3 hours of snow at most before the rain takes over. As Eric said above, 850s are really warm across most of PA too. Freezing Rain will be an issue as 2m temps are 28 to 30 degrees Barely any rain Temps hover around freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, RockerfellerSnow said: 2 inches/hr if it comes in like a wall. There’s your 4 inches that thunder model predicted nam looks best so far Definitely possible. But we all know how hard it is to accumulate snow in central park in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now