dmillz25 Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Perhaps, but they trended towards a weaker ULL which is no good. A stronger ull would pull the storm further north eliminating the chance of frozen at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 while im not expecting anything great seeing flakes in the air will be nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: A stronger ull would pull the storm further north eliminating the chance of frozen at the coast Think that you're misunderstanding what I said. The initial surface low goes by and that's what gives everyone the front end dump and then the ULL moves through Thursday night. The Euro runs prior to 00z were showing a stronger ULL with mesoscale banding features and heavy snow over interior NW NJ, NE PA and SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Think that you're misunderstanding what I said. The initial surface low goes by and that's what gives everyone the front end dump and then the ULL moves through Thursday night. The Euro runs prior to 00z were showing a stronger ULL with mesoscale banding features and heavy snow over interior NW NJ, NE PA and SE NY. I think this will end up as a good thump of snow followed by some sleet and drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: I think this will end up as a good thump of snow followed by some sleet and drizzle Time to get things sorted out but think that freezing rain could be a significant issue for some. Good portion of the trees here still have at least some leaves. A few inches of heavy wet snow followed by some freezing rain is a sticky situation. The 3k NAM for example has the surface at 26 over Rockland County at 00z Friday while 850's are running +1-2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 How much wind are we looking with this? The beaches had a rough hit with the October 27-28 storm. (all the beach replenishment was washed away) I don't think it would (or at be as bad as that one, since the pressure gradient doesn't look as tight as the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Rgem shows alot of sleet for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: How much wind are we looking with this? The beaches had a rough hit with the October 27-28 storm. (all the beach replenishment was washed away) I don't think it would (or at be as bad as that one, since the pressure gradient doesn't look as tight as the October storm. A few gusts in the 40-50 mph range along the coast but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12z GFS backed off on snow totals a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: 12z GFS backed off on snow totals a little Not surprising. Those maps are always overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 This is what I was talking about regarding the ULL. While it shows rain here, the surface is maybe 2-3 degrees above freezing for much of the interior. 850's are fairly warm but we could get some colder air to work down if the precipitation is heavy enough. Not to be confused with the front end potential late Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I think we will see flakes flying regardless at the onset obviously the futher north and west you are have a better chance at it, especially picking up maybe a dusting to perhaps a couple inches north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12z FV3-GFS cut back a little too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: 12z FV3-GFS cut back a little too. Sucks i only get 17 now. Lol these models are all awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Stormman96 said: Sucks i only get 17 now. Lol these models are all awful It's like it doesn't know what a thermal profile is. 31.7 degrees for some random 22 millibar thickness and 1.5" QPF? Must mean HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Many areas are going to see more sleet than snow Still impressive for November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Sucks i only get 17 now. Lol these models are all awful Going to be a long winter if we keep falling for these "snowfall" maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I think tempering expectations is smart at this time given the time of year and borderline temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said: while im not expecting anything great seeing flakes in the air will be nice to see. I think we can pull off a coating to 2 inches at the start before going to sleet/rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 In my opinion, I think this might be reasonable through Thursday night, before it turns over to rain. Likely going to be in the 3 - 5 : 1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: In my opinion, I think this might be reasonable through Thursday night, before it turns over to rain. Likely going to be in the 3 - 5 : 1 range. Still way overdone philly not getting 2.4 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Will be interesting if we can get measurable snow in November and December in the same calendar year after getting it January through April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Still way overdone philly not getting 2.4 snow Once we get into the mesoscale time frame tomorrow, we should begin to get a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3-5inches for NYC on the Euro Most likely sleet accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, CarLover014 said: 12z FV3-GFS cut back a little too. Huge difference between the new (FV3) GFS and the old GFS. The old one, below, seems to make a lot more sense with just a couple of inches for the 95 corridor and nada for the coast - with ocean temps in the 50s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Huge difference between the new (FV3) GFS and the old GFS. The old one, below, seems to make a lot more sense with just a couple of inches for the 95 corridor and nada for the coast - with ocean temps in the 50s... Water is so warm still, that my friend is still surfing! 58 degrees is what he said it was over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Water is so warm still, that my friend is still surfing! 58 degrees is what he said it was over the weekend Coastal areas are going to go over to rain thanks to the warm Easterly flow. This has always been a front end only scenario. Once the surface low gets up to SNJ it's all over. After that it's going to depend on the evolution of the ULL. Some guidance is suggesting a secondary surface low could form on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Coastal areas are going to go over to rain thanks to the warm Easterly flow. This has always been a front end only scenario. Once the surface low gets up to SNJ it's all over. After that it's going to depend on the evolution of the ULL. Some guidance is suggesting a secondary surface low could form on Friday morning. Precip usually comes in faster than modeled with these type of systems so this might help out everyone in regards to frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12Z Euro just came out and shows 0.4-0.8", still, of frozen precip up through early Thursday evening for the 95 corridor, before the changeover to heavy rain, with 1.2-2.0" of total precip falling (so over 1" of rain on top of any snow/sleet). Euro has had a similar solution for several runs now and we're only 48-60 hours from the event, so it's possible it'll be right. Euro also showing a fair amount more snow/sleet inland, as expected. Pretty sure the NWS will want to see more model consensus, say, 24 hours from now, before taking a snow threat more seriously for the 95 corridor with the ocean still being so warm. However, I could see winter storm watches going up for interior sections if tonight's model runs continue to show significant potential snow/sleet - and maybe advisories tomorrow afternoon for the 95 corridor if a few inches or more look likely by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Going to be a long winter if we keep falling for these "snowfall" maps storm after storm after storm over the past 10 years and nobody seems to have learned anything 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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