CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: We can drive the 495 belt in our snowpants I think it’s just a wee bit too warm, but like 1C cooler just off the deck would do it. Still, this is one of those where just inland could get snow. I don’t mean other side of CF but those areas just enough away from direct influence. Anyways still far out to get real cute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Very early it looks like a 2-4 or 3-6” event inland with extended icing that maybe ends as 33-34 dz. Hopefully thesecold trends continue . Euro has been awful . Gfs killed it tonight’s storm and last weeks when Euro had wound up cutters when we said there were no cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 52 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Bang bang. First threat post ever, good juju. Lets go! If this works out the juju yoke will be riding your neck all winter for WNE snows. #ourturn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 The Fv3 is buns all around. Doubles down on his daddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Very early it looks like a 2-4 or 3-6” event inland with extended icing that maybe ends as 33-34 dz. Hopefully thesecold trends continue . Euro has been awful . Gfs killed it tonight’s storm and last weeks when Euro had wound up cutters when we said there were no cutters Very reasonable post, 2-4"/3-5" type deal interior SNE and even NNE. The thing is hauling fast so may be hard for 6" or more anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The Fv3 is buns all around. Doubles down on his daddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Very reasonable post, 2-4"/3-5" type deal interior SNE and even NNE. The thing is hauling fast so may be hard for 6" or more anywhere. Yeah it’s not a big un. Solid high end advisory.. mayyyybe low end warning if it looks like 6-8” could happen north of the Mass /VT border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Something is wrong with the FV3 snowfall accumulation algorithm. Only weenies are believing this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Could this be one of those exit 47 specials you guys were talking about last week with rain in Andover while its pounds snow here in Methuen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If this works out the juju yoke will be riding your neck all winter for WNE snows. #ourturn Exceptional winter incoming. There will be a baby boom in sne hospitals next fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, KoalaBeer said: Could this be one of those exit 47 specials you guys were talking about last week with rain in Andover while its pounds snow here in Methuen? Starting to look like the transition line could be further south than that. Still a decent amount of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: Torrtington, CT on 12z Friday. Oof. My name is Thumpity pronounced humpity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 The 18z FV3 was run out of Kevin's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Something is wrong with the FV3 The algorithm seems fine on this run...it’s just really damn cold. I’m not sure if the FV3 determines its own ptype or if TT has an algorithm in determining it, but if it’s the latter, he only seems to have the 2m and 850mb temp there. I think the model needs more “test”ing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: The algorithm seems fine on this run...it’s just really damn cold. I’m not sure if the FV3 determines its own ptype or if TT has an algorithm in determining it, but if it’s the latter, he only seems to have the 2m and 850mb temp there. I think the model needs more “test”ing. I mean the FV3 is just pornographic. That H7 track. *drool* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: The algorithm seems fine on this run...it’s just really damn cold. I’m not sure if the FV3 determines its own ptype or if TT has an algorithm in determining it, but if it’s the latter, he only seems to have the 2m and 850mb temp there. I think the model needs more “test”ing. Look down at South Carolina. The modeled reflectivity never spits out snow, but if you look at the actual snow accumulation field, there is >10 inches. Something is most definitely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: I mean the FV3 is just pornographic. That H7 track. *drool* Yeah...heck maybe it’s onto something. We’re still 3-4 days out. I saw those H4-H7 maps too...nice weenie look for those midlevel mesoscale features. I wish he had some kind of coarse mean omega overlayed on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Look down at South Carolina. The modeled reflectivity never spits out snow, but if you look at the actual snow accumulation field, there is >10 inches. Something is most definitely wrong. Maybe, but it didn’t look too unreasonable given the temps, QPF, and dynamics for the interior up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Look down at South Carolina. The modeled reflectivity never spits out snow, but if you look at the actual snow accumulation field, there is >10 inches. Something is most definitely wrong. Definitely garbage down there. I wonder if he’s applying the algorithm for 2m temps of 1C or higher or something rather than using the modeled ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Definitely garbage down there. I wonder if he’s applying the algorithm for 2m temps of 1C or higher or something rather than using the modeled ptype. It could be something with the microphysics scheme within the model itself as well. Not really sure what is going on. I do agree about your previous post though, i.e., this run is much more impressive than other guidance currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said: It could be something with the microphysics scheme within the model itself as well. Not really sure what is going on. I do agree about your previous post though, i.e., this run is much more impressive than other guidance currently. 850 is torched down there and the modeled ptype is rain/storms...but there’s strong surface CAD for awhile down there and there’s a good 6-12hrs of +RA and 2m temps of 33-34F in NW SC. That’s the best guess I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Maybe, but it didn’t look too unreasonable given the temps, QPF, and dynamics for the interior up here. Coastalwx and I were discussing it a few days ago... the snowfall maps are always mammoth on the FV3. It had like 10 straight runs of 20"+ for the storm that happened last Friday night. I'll have to find the posts but Scooter definitely thought it was messed up then too. It has definitely been running on the high side for snowfall the past month. Or it just likes big solutions...either way it's the new GFS, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Coastalwx and I were discussing it a few days ago... the snowfall maps are always mammoth on the FV3. It had like 10 straight runs of 20"+ for the storm that happened last Friday night. It has definitely been running on the high side for snowfall the past month. Or it just likes big solutions...either way it's the new GFS, right? Read above...looks like a TT issue. They shouldn’t include anything above 0C at 2m in their snow accum algorithm. I think if your area is progged to stay snow in the column it’s fine. That will suck up here in 33F and rain events. It’s a clown map so they really shouldn’t be looked at anyway. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Be very, very skeptical of any modeled 10:1 snow graphic in early and late season snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 All clown maps are generated by the vendor and not by the model itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Be very, very skeptical of any modeled 10:1 snow graphic in early and late season snow events. ever Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Read above...looks like a TT issue. They shouldn’t include anything above 0C at 2m in their snow accum algorithm. I think if your area is progged to stay snow in the column it’s fine. That will suck up here in 33F and rain events. It’s a clown map so they really shouldn’t be looked at anyway. lol Ah yeah it was just producing some ridiculous totals that didn't even seem to match QPF earlier this week. It was saying 10:1 but the QPF maps didn't even seem to line up on TT with these totals. These are some sample runs from this week... Guess the moral is take the FV3 maps with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 We love snow maps because we’re weenies but let’s face it-they’re stupid. Before they were so ubiquitous we could figure it out with soundings and other s data. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: You may want to hang tight grasshopper. Still getting my 'back to Maine' legs. 52 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I mean the FV3 is just pornographic. That H7 track. *drool* Just where you want it 4 days out. 31* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Scandinavian Block and death storm near my head are doing good work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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