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Nov 15/16 regionwide event


RUNNAWAYICEBERG
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

GGEM continued to be almost like a SWFE, even switching up here over to mix/rain after half a foot of snow.

Goes nuts just north of the border though...wow that's close to being real big. 

 

 

If you look at the progression of temps in the mid-levels, 850-700 warm pretty quickly even as the surface might have some CAD for a while. 

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I'm a little intrigued... mainly because as that deep layer vortex opens up in the western TV area ...it transforms into vaguely negative tilted wave with vestigial ...albeit potent vorticity maximum. The wind pips are haulin' major azz there...some 110 to 120 knots at 500 mb. 

I mean, ...that sort of mechanical forcing riding over the interface between the near coastal waters and the land is like giving three points automatically to the home team.  Plus, the low level thickness packing is probably too amorphous compared to reality with that polar high exceeding 1035 cresting through NNE like that.   That plays a role... and important one. The 900 to 700 mb frontal slopes (elevated) can end up particularly steeply sloped and as the wind max than unzips over head, the UVM is then less sloped and more upright oriented in free space.  That makes diabatic heat release a bit more proficient... destablizing the column further and causing more lift --> deeper surface pressure and well... 2005 Dec taught that lessen rather nicely. 

We may not know the exact or precise physicality of these important variables until nearer terms.  Not trying to over state this events potential.. but, you have a strong, mid troposphere wind max passing 1.5 or so latitude S of LI with a relatively fresh boundary layer's dome-wall situated nearby just to the N - that usually doesn't end well.

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15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think most in NNE do well and interior northern SNE (maybe 20 miles north of the pike) too.

Right now looks to be a decent advisory level event for many, 2-6" type stuff.  Even in NNE it's very progressive so getting more than 4-6" may be challenging. 

Would be nice to get everyone at least a front end 1-2" to cover the ground before WAA.

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