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Nov 15/16 regionwide event


RUNNAWAYICEBERG
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Just now, DFRI said:

Looks like all rain entering Rhode Island.  Will that ever change to snow?  Guessing it will at some point???

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/connecticut/weather-radar?play=1

Don't pay attention to that...anything that starts as rain or sleet will quickly flip to snow. The exception will be those areas literally sticking out on the water like near Newport and coastal Narragansett...they may only have a brief period of snow.

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35 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well just getting up to speed after my days off, but this looks like it really maxes out now and over SNE. WAA weakens as it lifts across NNE, so rates will drop off but still a good thump (say 1/2/hr rather than 1/hr).

As usual up here the WAA lift is tough to get to linger beyond 6 hours, really like 3-5 hour window. I have some deep concerns about how much snow we're forecasting when the DGZ dries out around 06z and the remainder of the column is pretty warm (relatively speaking). Could be a lot of snizzle and not much accumulation until the deformation band swings through.

Boo-hiss.  Can you go back into hibernation?  :)

My ZFP is calling for 5-8", consistent with the p/c.  I'll take it and run.

I hadn't looked at the winds on the backside--just saw gusts to 40mph in the afternoon.  Not bad.

 

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Better late than never...1st map of the season.

11_15.18_snow_forecast_1.thumb.jpg.8015e03c0d78c029e7c93420ea5e90fb.jpg

Since snow has already started in S CT, this is just for verification purposes.

FWIW my first map yesterday would have looked like 2-5 statewide, C-2 SE corner. Bumped up a bit since then. When all is said and done please send me your final totals and ill make a verification snowfall map. 

 

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Things very few on here care about... 

But looks like a nice 4-6 hour period of favorable upslope conditions along with some additional vorticity tomorrow evening/night across the NW upslope zones.  Could see another 2-4" of fluffy snow with that feature by Saturday morning.

I care about it! ;)

I was looking at that too on the 3k NAM and I may upslope down here as well.

Final call for IMBY is 7-9" tonight and tomorrow AM since I expect some IP here after about 1-2 AM and then maybe another 1-3" here tomorrow evening???

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I was gentle with that update. It could've been worse.

I think that is more inline, Rates are going to be meh overall, Someone had to bring it back to reality, Nothing really screamed 8 here, Other then further NW where there was some better lift modeled.

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11 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I do think 4-6" is a pretty good forecast, and some folks will do a little better in the GYX CWA. 

Yup--I think the low end might be in reach here but even that might be ambitious.  We'll see what the day brings.  

Meanwhile, time to start looking for the next system.  Even in the hardest hit areas outside of the mountains, methinks we'll be starting from grass region-wide before winter coverage sets in.

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Actually--it's snowing pretty good out there.  It never dawned on me that I can use my phone light to illuminate outside through the window.  Good flakes to boot.

Also, I forgot that the deck here does not accumulate snow---actually the whole yard has a tough time.  Any wind coming off the water blows it off.  Makes for easy clearing of my car though.

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Things very few on here care about... 

But looks like a nice 4-6 hour period of favorable upslope conditions along with some additional vorticity tomorrow evening/night across the NW upslope zones.  Could see another 2-4" of fluffy snow with that feature by Saturday morning.

I care. 

West side weenie event IMO. Blocked to start. Though even fewer care about that. 

 

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Storm winding down.  Going to end up with about 4 1/2".  NAM and EURO were too high with qpf.  GFS had paultry qpf up here.  I kept seeing that run after run.  GFS was on to something since we didn't get .7" or so the other models forecasted.

All and all a low impact storm as heaviest fell at night.  Temps stayed in the 20's (up to 30.3F) at  storm end so snow was light and easy to move around.  

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26 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Storm winding down.  Going to end up with about 4 1/2".  NAM and EURO were too high with qpf.  GFS had paultry qpf up here.  I kept seeing that run after run.  GFS was on to something since we didn't get .7" or so the other models forecasted.

All and all a low impact storm as heaviest fell at night.  Temps stayed in the 20's (up to 30.3F) at  storm end so snow was light and easy to move around.  

GFS was too dry in CON. Over 0.60" w.e. there now. I'll probably end up somewhere between the NAM and GFS. We had pretty lousy ratios (9-10:1) so we weren't getting the extra few inches out of the liquid like they did down in SNE. Granted they had more QPF too, but they still had better ratios with that deeper lift into the DGZ yesterday evening.

The 00z GFS had about 0.50" for you so I assume you were near that.

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