Nov 15/16 regionwide event

[snowman21]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

What’s your dew?

Dew depressions are in the 20-25 range, so plenty of room, but if we're already into the 30s not a good sign. The warmth of Long Island Sound will not be denied.

[Chrisrotary12]

5 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

GYX was like this with the flip-flopping at times last year too. Hilarious stuff.

I'm in Nashua, so I am in GYX's CWA

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

lol at the difference between the op GFS and the FV3.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018111512/fv3p_apcpn_neus_6.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018111512/gfs_apcpn_neus_6.png

Toggle those bad boys.

I'd say its comical, But that's just bad modeling.

[WxBlue]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sometimes, Its better to make less adjustments rather then yo yo the grids.

Yep. GYX's adjustments between shifts are more aggressive than anywhere I've been to. GSP office (covering mountains of North Carolina) would start conservative before working their way up or not changing anything. GYX like to be aggressive and stay on top of current models rather than working their way toward the solution slowly.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

You think there's a flip to rain still in Hubby's and my area? I hate the IMBY questions but there's quite a few of us up this way now between Hubb, JJASHB, and myself.....and soon MPM will be in the area too  

Maybe some light 33-34F for a time? It's possible you stay freezing drizzle or light ZR.

[WxBlue]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I'm in Nashua, so I am in GYX's CWA

I knew you're in GYX's CWA. I probably should've word it differently to "they were like this..."

[ORH_wxman]

Jerry, latest RPM:

 

[CoastalWx]

I didn’t know we verified the warning yet? Taunton might as well put up a heat advisory with their differences. What a joke. 

I know I’ve thought 4-6 with a 7 lolli for a lot of the interior with Ryan and others similar. It doesn’t matter who has an advisory or warning. Only area I may have been low is down by Taunton. Still thinking maybe 1-2 here hopefully.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jerry, latest RPM:

 

Wow even NYC is now in the 2 to 4

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jerry, latest RPM:

 

Pretty meh up here.

[CoastalWx]

Last time I can recall those s coast areas doing better with longitude was late December 2012. Will remembers that one. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jerry, latest RPM:

 

Thanks Will!  2-4 for me seems reasonable actually.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

All of a sudden BOX giving inland CT more snow than NE Mass....

Not my area...outside of I 495 they have 6-8".

[MJO812]

Colder than modeled for everyone

Enjoy

[SR Airglow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jerry, latest RPM:

 

Does that cut off at 23:30 tonight or tomorrow? Seems really light for NNE.

Think the warnings from BOX are aggressive but I can see where they're coming from with it being the first event of the season and bad timing. I really like the map that @WxWatcher007 put out for us this morning for CT, otherwise take a consensus blend and throw out the op GFS and I think we're in a good place. Seems like the consensus for a general 4-8" for interior SNE and all of NNE is solid. I'll go 1.5" at Logan and 3" here (Mission Hill, about 4 miles inland).

[Sn0waddict]

Curious us to see if Upton ups their totals as well. They are currently forecasting less than one inch for HVN which seems a little ridiculous to me.  2-4 seems more reasonable. 

[ORH_wxman]

I would agree the RPM is too light for NNE...it's been fluctuating form run to run....it decided to pull a GFS this run, but it could easily go RGEM next run. I typically toss the RPM when it's not being consistent. It's kind of like the RAP in that manner...you want to consistency from it to believe it.

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Take em up.....6-8 now....issued 20 min ago

Lol my hill is that yellow dot above the C in Coventry RI. That’s a first, someone did their homework. It’s 725ft there. Snow Seems high to me I will say 5 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

Does that cut off at 23:30 tonight or tomorrow? Seems really light for NNE.

Think the warnings from BOX are aggressive but I can see where they're coming from with it being the first event of the season and bad timing. I really like the map that @WxWatcher007 put out for us this morning for CT, otherwise take a consensus blend and throw out the op GFS and I think we're in a good place. Seems like the consensus for a general 4-8" for interior SNE and all of NNE is solid. I'll go 1.5" at Logan and 3" here (Mission Hill, about 4 miles inland).

I think it’s a 23.5hr prog from the initial time. 

[tunafish]

PWM at 8", i'm gonna sell that 

 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Last time I can recall those s coast areas doing better with longitude was late December 2012. Will remembers that one. 

I remember that one!  I met wxsniss and we walked up to Trader Joe’s in Coolidge Corner.  While in the store it was transitioning to rain but thumping on the way over.  I’m at the registers paying for a bottle of wine and wxsniss has a stressed look at the window.  We walked a little and I was so distraught I dropped the wine on the sidewalk and the bottle broke .  We walked home in a driving rainstorm.  An hour later it flipped back and we did ok but west of the BU Bridge got 8+ which would include my current location.

[Sugarloaf1989]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They don’t want to listen or think we know anything . They FTL

You're my hero, NOT.

[PowderBeard]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol my hill is that yellow dot above the C in Coventry RI. That’s a first, someone did their homework. It’s 725ft there. Snow Seems high to me I will say 5 

I always liked how it could be raining on Rt 102/117 intersection and snowing at the top of Waterman Hill. Cool little microclimate spots in Coventry, West Greenwich, Scituate, etc.

[bobbutts]

Bit of a rollercoaster on the snow forecast from gyx.

[WxBlue]

3 minutes ago, tunafish said:

PWM at 8", i'm gonna sell that 

 

 

Agree it's a bit high. I like 3-6" range here and there.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

Does that cut off at 23:30 tonight or tomorrow? Seems really light for NNE.

Think the warnings from BOX are aggressive but I can see where they're coming from with it being the first event of the season and bad timing. I really like the map that @WxWatcher007 put out for us this morning for CT, otherwise take a consensus blend and throw out the op GFS and I think we're in a good place. Seems like the consensus for a general 4-8" for interior SNE and all of NNE is solid. I'll go 1.5" at Logan and 3" here (Mission Hill, about 4 miles inland).

Looks like 9:30 am tomorrow (1430z) to me if i'm reading that right.

[tunafish]

Just now, WxBlue said:

Agree it's a bit high. I like 3-6" range here and there.

Sounds right to me.  I really don't understand the flip flopping from them.  Perhaps @OceanStWx will enlighten us at some point.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Just now, bobbutts said:

Bit of a rollercoaster on the snow forecast from gyx.

Same with BOX, from 1-3, to 3-7 in Enfield , LOL.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Curious us to see if Upton ups their totals as well. They are currently forecasting less than one inch for HVN which seems a little ridiculous to me.  2-4 seems more reasonable. 

They are an awful office, for many years now. I know they do their best and it’s easy to play monday morning QB but holy moly they need help. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tunafish said:

Sounds right to me.  I really don't understand the flip flopping from them.  Perhaps @OceanStWx will enlighten us at some point.

Have not seen him posting for a bit, I inquired earlier but didn't get the answer i was looking for, I don't see him in the AFD's either up here.