CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I think the algorithm needs help. NYC is not getting 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think the algorithm needs help. NYC is not getting 10". When you read about how these algorithms work for models like the NAM and GFS you realized how effed they are. Pretty much sell all clown maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: When you read about how these algorithms work for models like the NAM and GFS you realized how effed they are. Pretty much sell all clown maps. Soundings, soundings, soundings. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I will say they tweak the RPM a lot. MPAS is next in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Yeah RGEM actually looks pretty sweet inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: FWIW I know not much but deep thunder gives most of ct a foot of snow Deep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I will say they tweak the RPM a lot. MPAS is next in line. "All the clown maps are , except for my clown maps" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 An old man looking for an rpm printout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: An old man looking for an rpm printout "Pap needs his fix"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 That 12z RGEM run seems to be more realistic then the last two runs, 5-8" with the N central areas getting into the mid level magic with up to a foot possible there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Curiously, I did not see any plows or salt trucks on standby this morning. Usually they are out plowing blacktop by now. Not sure how much that standby equipment means. Several years ago on one of our Illinois trips, we saw loads of snow removal stuff parked in the Rt 80 median, as a major CF was forecast with squalls and LES. We left Clearfield next morning and in the 120 miles to the OH border, and in LES up to 8" deep, we never saw a single plow or anything else related to moving snow. (Except those cars which plowed some as they skidded off the highway.) I'm looking for about 8" at home, all pow. Should be an interesting commute tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 HRRR is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: That 12z RGEM run seems to be more realistic then the last two runs, 5-8" with the N central areas getting into the mid level magic with up to a foot possible there. Who are these N Central areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Who are these N Central areas? Up here its the Greenville/Lincoln/Milinocket area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Up here its the Lincoln/ Milinocket area. I was certain you meant N Central Merrimack County NH! I'll take me 6 and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Up here its the Greenville/Lincoln/Milinocket area. Remember-Mark used to live in philly. Just tell him how much... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, mahk_webstah said: I was certain you meant N Central Merrimack County NH! I'll take me 6 and run. Yeah, That looks solid where you are, NNH up towards pittsburg could get into that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What you need to watch is that big burst and how the WCB does sort of shunt east a bit as it tries to move north. That is hinted at. Which is flag for N areas that are still well south of the mid level magic i would love to believe this would become clear by early evening this flag doesn’t seem to exist for S 1/2 of SNE (Pike south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Which is flag for N areas that are still well south of the mid level magic i would love to believe this would become clear by early evening this flag doesn’t seem to exist for S 1/2 of SNE (Pike south) What flag? You obsess over the most minute of details....its 4-8"...closer to 4-5" if the "thump" is slow to arrive, but 6-8" if it gets well out ahead of the mid level warmth. Its pretty clear imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What flag? You obsess over the most minute of details....its 4-8"...closer to 4-5" if the "thump" is slow to arrive, but 6-8" if it gets well out ahead of the mid level warmth. Its pretty clear imho. This post has nothing to do with mid level warmth If the thump is maximized Sw and it’s shunted east it doesn’t really arrive as advertised that robust for N areas is my point, is that not something you have seen in models ? theres a couple flags imo, yes I am vocal about them, shoot me hahaha i often like to play devils advocate a little , not to get under skin, but to try and gain some Clarity because there are many more busted forecasts here that bust high than low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I think 12z so far has locked a really nice thump tonight for pike south excluding cape. Even Logan should get in on it for 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 12z RGEM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Can a brother get an interpretation? This looks to be near the warm point for me. Does that low-level warmth suggest rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: This post has nothing to do with mid level warmth If the thump is maximized Sw and it’s shunted east it doesn’t really arrive as advertised that robust for N areas is my point theres a couple flags imo, yes I am vocal about them, shoot me hahaha It does have to do with the mid level warmth....if the omega "shunts east", then it takes longer to gain latitude, while the mid level warmth continues to encroach. Whatever.......4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 GFS has been consistant of .10-.30" qpf up here in Central NH. Just a no big deal. Should I believe this? NAM,EURO is in the .6-.7" range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think the algorithm needs help. NYC is not getting 10". Not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I'd rather be north of the pike, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Box upped map significantly, matching the majority of more bullish guidance (and discussions here!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The GFS was tossed, Its an outlier to the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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