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Nov 15/16 regionwide event


RUNNAWAYICEBERG
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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The mid-level warmth I think gets everyone gun shy too.  We've all seen too many events where it starts sleeting before you think it should... sort of in my head I feel like there are more SWFE's that have flipped to sleet earlier rather than later... but we all remember the events where the mid-level warmth was held off and got more snow than expected.  Its a tough balance to figure out where on the SWFE spectrum we fall on for this event.

4 out of 5 times that warm tongue gets you (at least around here). Those other events are definitely memorable and are always a pleasant surprise. I don’t see that happening this time.

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depends where the 700 mb center or equivalent center goes. if the axis of it stays south of the Pike it's not likely to warm tongue much farther N of there...

I might be a little concerned with flashing where it snows --> rain then ends as partial clearing in the evening Friday night. 

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models may be reeling a little in late innings here as the weight of this nascent cold air gets more physically presented in the grids... The NAM is subtly backed ENE over E (previous cycles(s) ) at Logon during max QPF/ UVM and seeing the Euro's last two cycles tick chillier I don't believe are coincidences.

I've been on the colder train on this from the beginning ...just not sure how far that goes.  One thing to consider... should that be the case above... we're going to get precariously close to tipping the ageo into an impenetrable wall actually and then we have enhancing meso scale studies with CF to contend with and score maxes [maybe] where none thought so.  Like ORH ...etc.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

depends where the 700 mb center or equivalent center goes. if the axis of it stays south of the Pike it's not likely to warm tongue much farther N of there...

I might be a little concerned with flashing where it snows --> rain then ends as partial clearing in the evening Friday night. 

Looks like it will be right over the coast imho, not a good position for good lift, 100nm South, I'd be happier

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Anyone notice how QPF is hovering around 1.5 inches now. Serious storm, don’t discount someone in WCT, WMass C Mass CSE NH SMaine getting smoked by a deform band back side.  I could see some foot totals coming in by Friday night. 

 Yeah, depending on how the euro and the meso's look in the morning I might lean close to warning up here.

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Glad someone who isn’t considered a weenie by Scooter brought up 07 cuz it’s been on my mind all day. Being out on the DL from work means I have been a 24/7 weenie. Seeing 850 and 7 H close to staying off shore as a trend is a good sign. Always am cautious with that warm tongue rushing in, but that dry Arctic feed can fight it off. What is confusing me is normally we thump then dryslot, all the increase on QPF is front end. Models are seeing intense omega. This is a pretty insane profile for ORH

811C11C7-B19A-4CF4-88A1-6407BC14EFE3.png

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Glad someone who isn’t considered a weenie by Scooter brought up 07 cuz it’s been on my mind all day. Being out on the DL from work means I have been a 24/7 weenie. Seeing 850 and 7 H close to staying off shore as a trend is a good sign. Always am cautious with that warm tongue rushing in, but that dry Arctic feed can fight it off. What is confusing me is normally we thump then dryslot, all the increase on QPF is front end. Models are seeing intense omega. This is a pretty insane profile for ORH

811C11C7-B19A-4CF4-88A1-6407BC14EFE3.png

That looks pretty icy.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s so much snow coming over the next 7-10 day period for just about all of us except SE areas. It’s insane. Tomorrow night , more Sunday night, sneaky clipper next Wed.. and a Miller A costal possible next weekend. This is how we used to do November 

We never did November like that.....lol.  

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Bouchard is bullish on both the totals (6-10" NW of ORH) and more importantly on the backside kicking in additional accumulation. Says the models have no handle on the wraparound and he expects precipitation to change back to snow and it will make a mess on Friday. Guess we'll see on that second part.

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27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Keith Carson?

Not sure.  I think when I lived her before there was some guy named Todd something or other.  I know it wasn't him.

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s so much snow coming over the next 7-10 day period for just about all of us except SE areas. It’s insane. Tomorrow night , more Sunday night, sneaky clipper next Wed.. and a Miller A costal possible next weekend. This is how we used to do November 

So, what province were you living in those Novembers?

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3 minutes ago, Zand said:

Bouchard is bullish on both the totals (6-10" NW of ORH) and more importantly on the backside kicking in additional accumulation. Says the models have no handle on the wraparound and he expects precipitation to change back to snow and it will make a mess on Friday. Guess we'll see on that second part.

He is usually very conservative with snow totals.   Wraparounds are a myth

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Not sure.  I think when I lived her before there was some guy named Todd something or other.  I know it wasn't him.

So, what province were you living in those Novembers?

Todd Gutner is on in the morning, Its usually Carson at night, Skinny with a beard.

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

He is usually very conservative with snow totals.   Wraparounds are a myth

Completely agree, weird to see him going bigger than everyone else. I like what Harvey has right now, but I'd love Pete's to verify.

Maybe Princeton will get 9" :D

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m a little surprised at BOX’s wording for interior CT in their WSWatch headline??   They mention that travel could be impossible???

Really??  I mean have we become that much of a wussy society now, that travel may be impossible in a 3-5 or 3-6 inch storm??  

Just Wow?? 

I've noticed that wording in a lot more winter weather products of watches/warnings.  I wonder if its like an auto-canned phrase that just gets injected into any winter storm watch or warning statement... I mean it's not wrong, travel *could* be impossible for someone with bald tires driving a small rear-wheel drive soda can that's masquerading as a car.

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