WeatherNurse Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 It seems greedy to complain about 6" in mid-november, but I was really hoping for a fat foot out of this one! Still, yesterday's sloppy mess laid down the perfect foundation to get the natural trails open. Dropping ropes in mid november! Holy snowflakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s 3-6 verbatim on NAM TO BOS. 925 cold till dawn. 800mb gets us though, looks to me like it warms in most of SNE after 6z Fri... but damage is done before that... Nice to see the more bullish guidance hold... for now... when does the GFS join? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We live for this. That pivotal clown map is quite lol for SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The people who perpetuate that drivel should be tagged....especially when resistant to redirection. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 looks like i'm good for 1-3" but based on the NAM is close to more.. 850 warms around 6z-9z if we can tick a bit colder could be more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 It's 850-700. Quite a large, warm layer with little room for error. It's just something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Verifies idea of WSW is legit Using the NAM to verify something It could happen though - looking good for 4+ for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Using the NAM to verify something It could happen though - looking good for 4+ for many We warn many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 NAM looks colder in the FRH grids... Haven't seen the pretty pictures yet. But linear diffferential between ALB and BOS on that grid argues for 4-6 with a quarter inch of sleet on top for places like western Middlesex out through N CT... with all snow at ALB. Wondering if there's a 700 mb elevatedd warm layer,, but... with the 500 mb mechanics tending S of the south coast I'm inclined to think that gets pinched off (if exists..) about 1/3 the way through this thing. Course...that's the NAM. I personally like this model in these nascent polar air/thicnkness compression scenarios though. I think it's finer grid picks up on those feed-backs... The EURO edged colder at 00z notwithstanding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Looping the soundings, it's neat to see the cooling and warming as the lift moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's 850-700. Quite a large, warm layer with little room for error. It's just something to monitor. Yeah it's like -0.4C at 03z at ORH at 750mb and at 00z before that, it's literally 0C in the warmest layer in southern CT. This could definitely go either way. If there is one thing the NAM is sometimes pretty good at, it's sniffing out the warm layers in SWFEs. It doesn't always do the best, but it has a pretty good batting average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Driving to work 2 hours ago and watching the cold come in with that wintry gray scud. Dead leaves blowing around the air, snow on the way. Embrace it folks-it’s coming! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 30 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said: That looks like a classic "coming in like a wall". I'd hate to be in the SW CT commute. I wouldn't want to be in it on a dry warm day either. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's like -0.4C at 03z at ORH at 750mb and at 00z before that, it's literally 0C in the warmest layer in southern CT. This could definitely go either way. If there is one thing the NAM is sometimes pretty good at, it's sniffing out the warm layers in SWFEs. It doesn't always do the best, but it has a pretty good batting average. Yeah hopefully that's the warmest it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's still awfully toasty above 850. I'd be worried with some pellets mixing in, if the big lift does not happen. At least aloft we have lift in the DGZ...but gosh that is close. I should be pretty resistant to the mid level warmth this far north.....we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah hopefully that's the warmest it gets. You can see how it gets resistance in Eastern areas too...KBED is still completely below freezing in the sounding by the time we reach 06z while ORH is pinging. Even BOS still has the max elevated warm layer at 0C by 06z. Meanwhile it's like 2C out toward BAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s 3-6 verbatim on NAM TO BOS. 925 cold till dawn. I'll eat crow if it verifies, don't get me wrong, I hope it does. FYI Harvey went minimal with measurable at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: Well....that's why we'll get 3" instead of 6". The ice card has been underplayed quite a bit I think. We tend to get our most damaging ice storms early in the winter season. Cold enough to cause glazing, but not cold enough to accumulate snow. Yeah OK....explain the "thermodynamics" of that one. My ground was completely frozen already this morning with a temp of 21F. It doesn't take much to freeze the top 1" of ground. Even at 6" deep my soil temp is 39F. Warm ground can be a problem in October, with already wet ground, marginal temps, or weak rates toward the spring equinox with enough solar radiation sneaking through the relatively thinner overcast. Enjoy the accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Cold enough to cause glazing, but not cold enough to accumulate snow. Yeah OK....explain the "thermodynamics" of that one. My ground was completely frozen already this morning with a temp of 21F. It doesn't take much to freeze the top 1" of ground. Even at 6" deep my soil temp is 39F. Warm ground can be a problem in October, with already wet ground, marginal temps, or weak rates toward the spring equinox with enough solar radiation sneaking through the relatively thinner overcast. Enjoy the accums. This warm ground convo is like discussing flat versus round earth in 2018. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I'll eat crow if it verifies, don't get me wrong, I hope it does. FYI Harvey went minimal with measurable at the coast. What’s he saying for the rest of us? You may get 1 while JP gets 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: What’s he saying for the rest of us? You may get 1 while JP gets 2-4. Let me dig up the graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: This warm ground convo is like discussing flat versus round earth in 2018. Maybe he knows Kyrie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Maybe he knows Kyrie? Even Kyrie apologized for his flat earth beliefs earlier this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Pretty good thump of snow on the 12z RGEM before it flips some to IP then rain on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: What’s he saying for the rest of us? You may get 1 while JP gets 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 12z RGEM is also colder than 6z RGEM... heavy thump in 0z-4z timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Yea, agree with Harv. I'll take 3" of snow in mid Novie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Pretty good thump of snow on the 12z RGEM before it flips some to IP then rain on the back end. I'd take a big chunk off of the RGEM snowmap for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'd take a big chunk off of the RGEM snowmap for much of the area. I would not even use a snow map, Just look at the mid level temps, Qpf, And figure it out from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'd take a big chunk off of the RGEM snowmap for much of the area. Most folks wouldn’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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