powderfreak Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6z EURO had quite the mid-level band across the north. Over 1" of QPF up here...more GGEM/RGEM than GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Congrats, Jeff. My p/c is calling for 1-3"/2-4" during the overnight/day periods. 1-3" and 3-5" here, 5" looks good for you and 6" here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The speed of this is going to hurt for higher potential totals but I think there is going to be a very narrow zone of incredibly heavy snow Friday morning...like 2-3'' per hour type stuff, but the band only sits for like a few hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Euro definitely ups the ante a bit but I'd still probably keep amounts in the advisory range over southern New England. It's plausible there's an area of 6-8" over the interior but low confidence. I'd want to see a decisive tick colder in the midlevels to forecast that...just too much chance we get sleet-bombed for 2-3 hours instead of heavy snow during that time and it's the difference between 3" and 6"+. If more guidance starts jumping on board for the intense front end like rgem and euro have, then the chances increase a little more but you still have the sleet problem lingering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Even BOX says I'm right! As for ice accretion, could see some significant icing especially across the higher inland terrain and portions of the CT valley, as mixed precip could linger into Fri morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Even BOX says I'm right! As for ice accretion, could see some significant icing especially across the higher inland terrain and portions of the CT valley, as mixed precip could linger into Fri morning Warm ground right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Yeah the higher totals / more widespread warning in SNE (outside of 128) depends on intensity of that WAA (Euro / RGEM / 3k NAM show this, GFS does not), and soundings (which appear very close and have maybe ticked slightly warmer as we get closer)... RGEM (though end of its range) actually looks colder than NAM at 850, but can't tell if there's a warmer tongue at 800-700 mb layer that spoils it Haven't looked at 6z Euro or Snapface or whatever it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yeah the higher totals / more widespread warning in SNE (outside of 128) depends on intensity of that WAA (Euro / RGEM / 3k NAM show this, GFS does not), and soundings (which appear very close and have maybe ticked slightly warmer as we get closer)... RGEM (though end of its range) actually looks colder than NAM at 850, but can't tell if there's a warmer tongue at 800-700 mb layer that spoils it Haven't looked at 6z Euro or Snapface or whatever it is Try Instachat....Is that you Mr. Belichek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Try Instachat....Is that you Mr. Belichek? Snapgram. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Warm ground right? Well....that's why we'll get 3" instead of 6". The ice card has been underplayed quite a bit I think. We tend to get our most damaging ice storms early in the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Well....that's why we'll get 3" instead of 6". The ice card has been underplayed quite a bit I think. We tend to get our most damaging ice storms early in the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Well....that's why we'll get 3" instead of 6". The ice card has been underplayed quite a bit I think. We tend to get our most damaging ice storms early in the winter season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Well....that's why we'll get 3" instead of 6". The ice card has been underplayed quite a bit I think. We tend to get our most damaging ice storms early in the winter season. Minster...get with the program, it's about rates, not warm ground. Geez. Gonna be Frigid tonight..especially for the time of year on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 47 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 6z EURO had quite the mid-level band across the north. Over 1" of QPF up here...more GGEM/RGEM than GFS/NAM. I think I had that band just south of you in my first call, but its close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The whine is flowing this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 45 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Even BOX says I'm right! As for ice accretion, could see some significant icing especially across the higher inland terrain and portions of the CT valley, as mixed precip could linger into Fri morning It already happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I mean, it's gonna be like 15F tonight. Maybe even colder in rad spots...so the ground isn't even going to be warm to begin with. Even if it was,there is no way it would ever really have effect on accumulations since the low level temps are going to be cold in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The eurowx maps aren't that bad...its the wxbell ones that blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean, it's gonna be like 15F tonight. Maybe even colder in rad spots...so the ground isn't even going to be warm to begin with. Even if it was,there is no way it would ever really have effect on accumulations since the low level temps are going to be cold in this. The people who perpetuate that drivel should be tagged....especially when resistant to redirection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 We thump on the 12z NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 12z NAM might even be a hair colder than 6z run at 800 and 850... and continues with heavy WAA thump through 6z Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 GYX talking high-end advisory. In the foothills, qpf will likely be the limiting factor, not p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 That antecendent high is stout on the 12km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 That looks like a classic "coming in like a wall". I'd hate to be in the SW CT commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 That’s 3-6 verbatim on NAM TO BOS. 925 cold till dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 What a thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Verifies idea of WSW is legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said: That looks like a classic "coming in like a wall". I'd hate to be in the SW CT commute. We live for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Definitely advisory snow for many, Good starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 That's still awfully toasty above 850. I'd be worried with some pellets mixing in, if the big lift does not happen. At least aloft we have lift in the DGZ...but gosh that is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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