ice1972 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ya very very rarely from what I’ve seen. The weenies will hold on to them for dear life but it’s such a big fail every time.....it’s just all dried up by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Ryan has 2-5 for all of CT, except southeast shore area. Nice way to start the Season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 This is great.....the best novie event since our first winter here....novie 2004 had a nice vets day event....it thumped good for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 November 2012 had a very nice event...about 9 inches here...November 7th I believe in 2012!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya very very rarely from what I’ve seen. Days and days of heavy accumulating flurries in KTOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Lol.. He’s hoping for damaging ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 hours ago, ice1972 said: Backlash snows never work out.....no? The only time I can remember them working out was in February 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 First call...final call tomorrow night. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/11/first-snow-of-season-thursday-night.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Good to be back fellas... 0z Euro with a heavier WAA thump... everything moves in a bit earlier, 850s slightly warmer in pike region, but almost 0.5" more qpf 0z-6z Friday... supports 3k NAM / RGEM at least in intensity of the thump... I can't see Euro cross-sections but judging from 850s looks like still uncertain soundings approaching 6z near pike... still, with greater intensity of that initial thump as depicted, the NWS 2-3" is looking like a very reasonable starting point and, if things hold, will have to be increased outside 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Good to be back fellas... 0z Euro with a heavier WAA thump... everything moves in a bit earlier, 850s slightly warmer in pike region, but almost 0.5" more qpf 0z-6z Friday... supports 3k NAM / RGEM at least in intensity of the thump... I can't see Euro cross-sections but judging from 850s looks like still uncertain soundings approaching 6z near pike... still, with greater intensity of that initial thump as depicted, the NWS 2-3" is looking like a very reasonable starting point and, if things hold, will have to be increased outside 128 Yeah everything is a few hours faster which helps. It brings in precip to SW CT around 11AM. Definitely looks like a shot at warning criteria even south of the Pike if it were to play out that way. Really dumps for about 5-6 hours before it gets too warm aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 hours ago, Blizz said: Seems like 11/10 you go under on the euro clown maps. Wish they were never a thing 2-4” looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said: Yeah everything is a few hours faster which helps. It brings in precip to SW CT around 11AM. Definitely looks like a shot at warning criteria even south of the Pike if it were to play out that way. Really dumps for about 5-6 hours before it gets too warm aloft. Does the thump stay strong N of pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 35 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Does the thump stay strong N of pike Rgem says yes. Congrats n pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Should see WSW’s for all of interior SNE with the 4pm package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 hours ago, CT Rain said: NAM close to an isothermal flash back to snow on the backside Friday. Yup. When the ULL goes south of LI. Good things happen in SNE. Ginx always is all over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Well time the reel the weenies in. I don’t see winter storm warnings for all interior, and the flashback is up north. But should be a fun first event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Well time the reel the weenies in. I don’t see winter storm warnings for all interior, and the flashback is up north. But should be a fun first event. How far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well time the reel the weenies in. I don’t see winter storm warnings for all interior, and the flashback is up north. But should be a fun first event. ULL south of LI. Fair chance we flip it back with temps stuck in low 30’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: ULL south of LI. Fair chance we flip it back with temps stuck in low 30’s North and over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: How far north The Berkshires and northern Worcester County could get a quick flash back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: North and over Gibbs and Ryan both mentioned it happening . Guess we’ll see. With an inch frozen liquid equivalent. This gonna be fun and one that will evolve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gibbs and Ryan both mentioned it happening . Guess we’ll see. With an inch frozen liquid equivalent. This gonna be fun and one that will evolve It’s just looks further north as of this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The upper level low goes over us, so it looks a bit further north this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Well a snow event seems certain for most of us. Or a snow on the front end event, We belly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The upper level low goes over us, so it looks a bit further north this morning. Ya I mean when KEV says “ south of Long Island “ and doesn’t post a map, we kno where it’s tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 BOX dialed it back overnight. 3-4” here from 4-6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: BOX dialed it back overnight. 3-4” here from 4-6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Dang. 0” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and it's almost certainly wrong too, lol. That would be 2-3" per hour stuff leading up the flip to sleet. Even if we know it isn't right verbatim, it does give us a reason to kep an eye out for an intense burst on the front end. Models have been disagreeing about it with the GFS constantly being the weakest. I doubt it ends up like the GFS either. Okay--we've got our first "verbatim" of the season. How long will it take before we need to "thread the needle"? 23* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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