moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Oh how'd I'd like the rates on Friday that I'm having now of RN+. Torching here now--45* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Modfan said: Does that lean towards and icing/IP problem say S ORH hills/Union north? I don't think this will be a big ice producer. Maybe something like 2-3 hours of ZR after the snow and sleet. High is drifting east so the clock is ticking pretty quick...it will go to 33-34 rain after a couple hours I think. Though a good chunk of the qpf might already be done. The heaviest stuff could be the first 3-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't think this will be a big ice producer. Maybe something like 2-3 hours of ZR after the snow and sleet. High is drifting east so the clock is ticking pretty quick...it will go to 33-34 rain after a couple hours I think. Though a good chunk of the qpf might already be done. The heaviest stuff could be the first 3-6 hours. I could see an extended period of freezing drizzle here in the valley as we rot with in situ CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I think the EPS probabilities for 1, 3, and 6"+ of snow are pretty reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 50/50 shot of 3"+, and 80% shot of an inch or more....we take. Fits my initial hunch of a 2-5"er, followed by frz drizzle/drizzle deal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 there's even some semblance of a surface capture there between 60 and 72 hours. Low depiction stalls and retros slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 50/50 shot of 3"+, and 80% shot of an inch or more....we take. Fits my initial hunch of a 2-5", followed by drizzle drizzle deal.. That's what I am thinking for my hood as well. Nice little event to start things off for SNE. Fun to track and glaze eyes over weather models. I do miss the weather.us stuff though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Anything over 50% chance of accumulating snow in mid November I’m not going to cry about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't think this will be a big ice producer. Maybe something like 2-3 hours of ZR after the snow and sleet. High is drifting east so the clock is ticking pretty quick...it will go to 33-34 rain after a couple hours I think. Though a good chunk of the qpf might already be done. The heaviest stuff could be the first 3-6 hours. That's enough to knock out 500k. Gas up the generators! 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I think the EPS probabilities for 1, 3, and 6"+ of snow are pretty reasonable. Ryan--do you have panels of that beyond 18z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 deeper layers in coastals don't really promote alot of icing 'cept for rare scenarios. you get more of an isothermal structure below the growth area of the sounding ...which is why it tends to focus into snow to 'chutes to big cold rain drops along tighter axis... Also, with the high retreating east, there's likely to be some penetration west of contamination/CF... I wonder if we can correct the high to a slower depart? heh... don't get greedy - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 As many here have confirmed, I don't see any type of miracle happening here near the coast. Should be toast, and I'm skeptical on measurable. Would consider a half inch a win if you're on immediate coastal plain. I'd think 1-3" inside 495. A general 3-6" outside 495. Perhaps 4-8" for higher elevations of SNE. You have onshore winds and discouraging mid level wind direction despite colder air in place. Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a warmer event tucked closer to LI, leaving most outside of higher elevations with lower totals. We need to keep an eye on how this trends in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: As many here have confirmed, I don't see any type of miracle happening here near the coast. Should be toast, and I'm skeptical on measurable. Would consider a half inch a win if you're on immediate coastal plain. I'd think 1-3" inside 495. A general 3-6" outside 495. Perhaps 4-8" for higher elevations of SNE. You have onshore winds and discouraging mid level wind direction despite colder air in place. Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a warmer event tucked closer to LI, leaving most outside of higher elevations with lower totals. We need to keep an eye on how this trends in the next day or two. The high up north has been trending further south and anchoring longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The high up north has been trending further south and anchoring longer. gfs disagrees. Maybe we wait for the weenie 3 12z run to continue the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gfs disagrees. Maybe we wait for the weenie 3 12z run to continue the trend. I can't recall but didn't the GFS suffer from a bit of a warm bias in the BL by about 1C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I can't recall but didn't the GFS suffer from a bit of a warm bias in the BL by about 1C? Thought it was higher but yes it runs warm. Its son runs very cold and spits out nam like qpf. Polar opposites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12z GGEM would work... nice front end snows in SNE and then mid-level dumping across the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 new para GFS backed down a bit but still looks pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: new para GFS backed down a bit but still looks pretty decent Didn't think it was out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 on SV, they have this thing called Para-GFS, I assumed it was the new GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 It is, But i have it out to hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: It is, But i have it out to hr 24 TT has it out to 78hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: It is, But i have it out to hr 24 If you click NE. then total snow it's out to 72hr not sure why.. but yes the rest only to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: If you click NE. then total snow it's out to 72hr not sure why.. but yes the rest only to 24 Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: TT has it out to 78hr Ha, I was on pivotal too and it was hr 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Clown range RGEM looks similar to the GGEM. It has a good thump for SNE and then a weenie midlevel band for N VT into N ME. The thump is prob not quite as aggressive as the GGEM but these are details that are meaningless at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Clown range RGEM looks similar to the GGEM. It has a good thump for SNE and then a weenie midlevel band for N VT into N ME. The thump is prob not quite as aggressive as the GGEM but these are details that are meaningless at this point. It really seems textbook early season. But somewhere down in CT could see a nice surprise. A true north and west of the city elevation event with nuisance snows otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: It really seems textbook early season. But somewhere down in CT could see a nice surprise. A true north and west of the city elevation event with nuisance snows otherwise. I don't think elevation will matter that much once away from immediate coast. It's pretty damned cold in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Yeah elevation won’t matter. It’s a matter of getting away from marine influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't think elevation will matter that much once away from immediate coast. It's pretty damned cold in the low levels. 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah elevation won’t matter. It’s a matter of getting away from marine influence. Seems like mid level temps are better for snowgrowth further north and west and into the elevations too? THat's more or less what I meant to say, didn't come across like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, sbos_wx said: As many here have confirmed, I don't see any type of miracle happening here near the coast. Should be toast, and I'm skeptical on measurable. Would consider a half inch a win if you're on immediate coastal plain. I'd think 1-3" inside 495. A general 3-6" outside 495. Perhaps 4-8" for higher elevations of SNE. You have onshore winds and discouraging mid level wind direction despite colder air in place. Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a warmer event tucked closer to LI, leaving most outside of higher elevations with lower totals. We need to keep an eye on how this trends in the next day or two. I mean is it Mid November and we have a retreating high , starting in a good position but moving out. It’s a fascinating system and I’m not gonna guess how it will play out but my Initial hunch is we in sne are gonna need a nice thumping to produce some front end snows for the interior coastal plain or we bust any amounts forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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