Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Might be another 1-2” Sunday night/ early Monday with that weak clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 hours ago, Blizz said: Euro map from tonight... Note that's a 108 hour map so it's including totals from today for areas getting snow. Looks increasingly likely I'll wind up with 2-4" with perhaps a little taint at the height of warming. Western and Central Mass look like nice spots. 38* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 It’s a few inches for most in sne away from the ocean. A free but delicious appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 The 3 was created by a collection of weenie programmers and the clown map drawn by Jimmy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Think 2 to 5 is a good bet here.. so excited to take my son out in it!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 MEX is robust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 You have quite the warm tongue above 850-800 moving in. Always watch that because that can put an end to snow quickly. To me, it seems like we need to see how strong the front end will be. The front end band will also have good lift into the DGZ it appears. It could be nice for a couple of hours before any flip. I could see a nasty IP/ZR event interior from SNH,ORH hills into kevin land. Maybe second area from ct valley drainage? I don't expect a lot inside 128, but could be q quick 1-2 before any flip just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: MEX is robust! It is--giving PWM through here through Dry Slot 6's--nice high-end advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Warm tongues always penetrate the dome quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Warm tongues always penetrate the dome quickly. Warm tongues are often underrated in a relationship... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You have quite the warm tongue above 850-800 moving in. Always watch that because that can put an end to snow quickly. To me, it seems like we need to see how strong the front end will be. The front end band will also have good lift into the DGZ it appears. It could be nice for a couple of hours before any flip. I could see a nasty IP/ZR event interior from SNH,ORH hills into kevin land. Maybe second area from ct valley drainage? I don't expect a lot inside 128, but could be q quick 1-2 before any flip just inland. Will there be enough zr for tree damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Snow is good. Winter wonderland outside and tracking another snowfall in a few days? November of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 How did the euro 6z look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I would expect a BOX map later this afternoon? First one of the season other than the probability ones I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will there be enough zr for tree damage? Probably enough for 500,000 outages...could be higher 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 GFS mex numbers are interesting for THU, all snow event potentially, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Probably enough for 500,000 outages...could be higher Start there--raise it as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 27 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS mex numbers are interesting for THU, all snow event potentially, Yeah for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, RockerfellerSnow said: How did the euro 6z look Not great for SNE, Caught between the two lows, Really would like to see this consolidate more into one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, RockerfellerSnow said: How did the euro 6z look It's going to take me a little while to get used to hearing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is pretty darn good for most of interior SNE...and CNE. It actually leaves far NNE pretty dry. I wouldn't be shocked if this thing ends up a bit more nukey in structure... perhaps even in now-cast time leads... Could see it all shrinking toward a centroid over performing low. Not many folks acknowledged my sentiments on this things structure, yesterday, so if repeating...sorry. But it bears some semblance to the mid level evolution of Dec 2005 ... Subtleties (duh) will drive the ultimate outcome and given to the rarity of the 2005 event and the notoriety of stinger wind phenomenon on the Cape and so forth...entirely different headliner content. However, there are some general similarities ... with nascent polar high in the vicinity/BL forcing over land butting up against the Oceanic boundary layer... while strong mid lvl wind max careens overhead. Just like back then... the resolution of this sort of 'hyper' gradient saturation event is key ...and it's meso-like requirement. That said, the experimental GFS that folks bandy about ... it shows a distinct attempt at picking up on those sub-synoptic scale influences... as it drills 1000 mb low to ~ 988 mb in 12 hours passing from southern NJ to just SE of CC... a proficient deepening that I believe is a result of very upright oriented UVM along that thickness gradient described above. In other words, this is trickier I suspect than folks even realize. Otherwise, I don't have problem going cold profiles say White Plains NY to Beford Mass axis... Climo of 1.5 S of LI should raise flags too. Marginal when/with a "correction vector" favoring dynamic obliteration of fragile warm thickness ...at night no less... If this whole ordeal gets weaker in these immediate ensuing model cycles, and/or somehow finds a mid level trajectory W of Boston than we'll talk ...other wise, this is likely to a cold solution. Folks, keep in mind...the GFS has a notorious warm boundary layer/contamination issue... probably related to improficiency with diabatic processsing ... This was quite commonly noted last winter ...and to some degree in the summer with dry BL promoting T1 temperatures of 116 F at Framingham in early July... Unless there's been some upgrades it's worth it to question that. It feeds back... if it's too warm, it lowers BL resistance ...low cuts in tighter...total profile ends up wetter and probably weaker too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not great for SNE, Caught between the two lows, Really would like to see this consolidate more into one. Yeah, some areas can see 2-4" western parts, but mostly for SNE 1-2".. looks good for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: Yeah, some areas can see 2-4" western parts, but mostly for SNE 1-2".. looks good for NNE Yes, I won't toss it though.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, RockerfellerSnow said: How did the euro 6z look Better for SNE than far NNE.The ULL helps SNE as it comes across south of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Better for SNE than far NNE.The ULL helps SNE as it comes across south of LI ULL rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: ULL rains? It was warmer in the BL down there other then the berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 the good news is the 12z NAM is running and should clear thing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: ULL rains? Did you miss the low level cold on north drain? Scoots mentioned it. We get a ton of icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did you miss the low level cold on north drain? Scoots mentioned it. We get a ton of icing your area will do better for that.. for mby we're toast after 3Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Euro looks like 1-2" for interior SNE with some scattered 3" amounts in the usual spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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