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Nov 15/16 regionwide event


RUNNAWAYICEBERG
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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

The follow up nuke on the GFS is weird on Friday. Sort of disjointed with the thump and then the coasta low. 

It prob wrong...I feel like this will end up a bit more amped and hug the coast more like the other guidance mostly shows.

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

But yeah the GFS is cold af. Those soundings are pretty impressive around Hartford. 

I def believe the cold front end look for sure...the high has been getting more impressive as we get closer and it's in the classic thump spot trying to hang out near Caribou right as the precip wall is entering the south coast.

The upperlvels would suggest everything does tuck in close eventually...though we've seen the upper levels have trouble marrying the lower/midlevels before so we'll have to watch.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

First measurable for the big 4 climo locales in SNE incoming I think .   A little snow early Monday morning to boot.  Here we go winter!

Definitely gets more real when Will/ORH and Ryan show up posting all the sudden.  

Thats even a bigger indication of winter coming than the Tolland index flipping from +DIT to -DIT.

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If this was 3-4 weeks from now, we'd prob be talking solid warning criteria for most of SNE...its a pretty good setup for us in winter. The early calendar has us pretty marginal, but the synoptic players argue that we can hold in the cold enough for a few inches assuming there aren't any large scale changes between now and Thur night.

 

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If this was 3-4 weeks from now, we'd prob be talking solid warning criteria for most of SNE...its a pretty good setup for us in winter. The early calendar has us pretty marginal, but the synoptic players argue that we can hold in the cold enough for a few inches assuming there aren't any large scale changes between now and Thur night.

 

 

 

 

Yup. The nice thing is we are anomalously cold Thursday with that high and associated cold/dry BL. I have 18 Thursday am lol

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41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If this was 3-4 weeks from now, we'd prob be talking solid warning criteria for most of SNE...its a pretty good setup for us in winter. The early calendar has us pretty marginal, but the synoptic players argue that we can hold in the cold enough for a few inches assuming there aren't any large scale changes between now and Thur night.

 

 

 

 

Agreed..that high placement is nearly optimal for my new spot.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/11/right-on-cueregions-first-snows.html

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4 hours ago, Randy4Confluence said:

A little snowfall in mid November  is nothing out of the ordinary for your lattitude....and should be expected ☺

It’s been so rare vs my childhood that I’ve grown to expect nothing until mid December.   You should figure out a way to spend some winter time back here this year.

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