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Hoosier

November 15-16 Storm Potential

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11 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Some of the trees may still have leaves on them, I'm assuming? 

Regardless, just a terrible ice event so early in the season. 

Yeah, search INwx (and probably the other states too) on Twitter and you'll find some pics of trees w/leaves coated in ice.

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3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Can confirm. At work in Sycamore and we have almost 2” down. Working wrecks all over the northern half of the county. 

Looks like it's probably not going to shift a whole lot more in the next few hours.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like it's probably not going to shift a whole lot more in the next few hours.

Yeah the public was unaware too, forecast called for a 40% chance of rain/snow 

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What a whacky event this has been so far...

Went to bed last night with the initial precip crawling north toward Dayton. Thought it would be snow first, FZRN+sleet by daybreak, then rain late. No products (not even an HWO) were hoisted for my little corner of NW OH. When I woke up at 8am, we were under an Ice Storm Warning! By that point, there was already had ~0.10" of accretion with ripping freezing rain continuing to fall. Ended up receiving another tenth or so of ice accumulation ending up with around 0.20" before accretion halted and temps rose briefly above 32. It was enough to make the trees sound absolutely awful whenever a little wind picked up, and I noticed a few branches and lines down in my drive from CG to Lima. Main roads were fine, side roads + bridges were horrid. One of the more memorable ice events we have had in a long time, and definitely one of the earliest.

As of now, we are back to snow. Dusting on the ground and any ice remaining on trees has frozen back. That defo band in IL is impressive. Seems like it is starting to pickup some of the straggling moisture out in OH as well.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1112 AM CST THU NOV 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     SNOW             4 S WRIGHT CITY         38.77N 91.03W
11/15/2018  M8.7 INCH        WARREN             MO   PUBLIC


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31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like it's probably not going to shift a whole lot more in the next few hours.

Yeah, looks to stall just west of here and begin to pivot back east a bit. Rip city under the band with light sleet falling on the backside currently.

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5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yeah, looks to stall just west of here and begin to pivot back east a bit. Rip city under the band with light sleet falling on the backside currently.

Yeah it turned to sleep for awhile but snow beginning to take back over as it begins to pivot back east. Might be able to pick up another inch 

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1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Yeah it turned to sleep for awhile but snow beginning to take back over as it begins to pivot back east. Might be able to pick up another inch 

Front row seat as I babysit a driver in ditch waiting on the tow to show up. We went from having no calls to the county exploding with driver in ditch/wreck calls. 

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About a quarter inch of ice this morning here at Fortville.  Driveway was blocked by rather large tree limb so I waited till midmorning when ice was off drive to go out and move it to the side before going to work.  Schools cancelled in the area.  Fortunately power stayed on locally.  Was not really expecting an ice storm this early in season..  I think of them in Feb/March.  54,000 was the highest number of outages I saw reported in central and se IN today.

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Got a dusting here in Macomb, IL this morning from that last band that pushed through. All the big accumulation stayed just to our southeast. 5NE of Arenzville which is about 45-50 miles to my SE as the crow flies picked up 7 inches of accumulation. Pretty sharp drop-off. Reminds me of 12/1/2006 but not nearly as extreme and this time I ended up on the boring side of things.

Had thoughts of driving down south this morning to shoot video but the allure of my bed at 2:30 in the morning and driving 45 minutes in blinding snow and cold, didn't exactly sit well with me lol.

Next one please.

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.3 of an inch of ice in SE Cincy this morning (mostly trees and elevated surfaces --- power outages exceeded 100k at it's peak with close to 1000 outage locations.

Might just get a nice dusting this evening from the "Reach Around"-- 

 

Interesting start to the season indeed.

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16 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

The hrrr (and some other models) have been hinting at a narrow, pivoting band of snow lingering in north central/central IL tomorrow afternoon as the system weakens and pulls away. If it ends up happening could give some areas a nice surprise, wouldn’t be surprised if it did due to several models showing a feature like this. Would be a consolation prizes for what folks downstate are experiencing 

01760075-29C2-4B3F-99FB-70DD73F286CC.png

Short range models, especially the HRRR nailed the narrow pivoting defo band. 

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13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Short range models, especially the HRRR nailed the narrow pivoting defo band. 

Sure did. I was very skeptical until the HRRR continuously was showing it last night. Probably overperformed even with some localized areas seeing 3”+ under the band 

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I give forecasters props when they nail something, but IWX blew chunks on this one. I was expecting around an inch or two of snow this morning, but woke to zr and an ice storm warning until noon. The warning never came close to verifying with ice accretion to maybe 0.2" tops, no tree limbs down, no power outages, and actually very few wrecks or other issues. Then at 10 AM they posted a map (that I shared here earlier) showing a flip to snow with 3-4" of snow for a large portion of Northern IN which I knew when they posted it had a snowball's chance in hell of happening. So I post it to our Agency Facebook page anyway and it turns into a public $hIt$torm.

I know, I know, wrong thread.

Carry on.

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That band near and north of Cincy really growing and intensifying. HRRR seems to have nailed it but we'll see how much snow falls. Should get to me soon.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The amount of tree damage reports coming out of IN/KY/OH sounds impressive for basically 0.25"-0.30" ice and lack of strong winds.  Numerous reports of entire trees falling.

It has been pretty bad in the Northern Kentucky/Cincinnati area. I'm in the roofing industry and we received tons of phone calls due to trees damage. One of which was from a massive Pin Oak branch that decided enough was enough. It's been a day! 

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2 hours ago, Cincy12 said:

It has been pretty bad in the Northern Kentucky/Cincinnati area. I'm in the roofing industry and we received tons of phone calls due to trees damage. One of which was from a massive Pin Oak branch that decided enough was enough. It's been a day! 

Doesn't surprise me with how saturated the ground is in these areas.  They've had a ton of rain in the past month.  Top that with extra weight on trees and weak ground to hold them up.  

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STL had 2.9" today, so they technically did not record a 3" calendar day snow from this storm.  Literally if the storm would've been pushed back by about 15 minutes, it would've resulted in 3" today.  

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It snowed beautifully during the morning before turning into a sloppy rain/snow mix during the afternoon. Picked up 1.5" of snow both in imby & DTW. Actually turned to very light rain for several hours during the evening and now it's back to very light snow. The heavy slush on the ground is just under an inch deep now from the compaction. We've missed anything noteworthy however it is quite unusual to have already had our 3rd measurable snowfall by November 15th. Only bad thing about thrusting into Winter so early is that my mindset is now complete Winter mode. I can try to remind it that it's 5 weeks before the Winter Solstice, but I doubt that works lol

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