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Hoosier

November 15-16 Storm Potential

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Tricky call here and I don't feel too comfortable.  I think struggling to get to 1" and getting a few inches are both plausible outcomes.  The precip shield is progged to start weakening as it gets here.  If that process is delayed just a little, then a few inches would be more likely.  Then during the day tomorrow, thermal profiles become more marginal and precip may shift too far north for a time.

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10 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Good old DT.

image.jpeg

Yeah East Coast centric, but I have no qualms in what I see for this region on the map.

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Noticed during the heat of the day, most areas in the shade were still frozen. Even some icy snow could be found on the grass and the pond never thawed. Given timing of the onset tomorrow accumulations should be a real threat.

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The developing storm looks great on water vapor, with a nice moisture plume. Snow has started in southern Illinois, slowly creeping its way northward. Already down to 27 here, should yield some nice fluff tomorrow. 

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Looking great for a nice 2-4" across the GTA away from the lake. First widespread snow event in November since 2014. 

Going to have to monitor sfc temps. as they're expected to hover around the freezing mark. The heaviest precip should come in the evening so this should allow for some cooling to take place.

 

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Wow, almost tries to pull a 12/01/06. :lol:

I was more annoyed by that than GHD1, and it's really not even close.

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Sounds like the ice is getting a little serious in KY.  Many of the trees probably still have their leaves around there

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
954 PM CST WED NOV 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 PM     ICE STORM        1 NW OWENSBORO          37.77N 87.13W
11/14/2018                   DAVIESS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE CITY AND
            COUNTY INCLUDING 2 TREES THAT FELL ON HOMES,
            2 POLES THAT CAUGHT FIRE, AND MANY TREES ARE
            HANGING LOW AND LEANING ON POWER LINES.


&&

$$

SP
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The hrrr (and some other models) have been hinting at a narrow, pivoting band of snow lingering in north central/central IL tomorrow afternoon as the system weakens and pulls away. If it ends up happening could give some areas a nice surprise, wouldn’t be surprised if it did due to several models showing a feature like this. Would be a consolation prizes for what folks downstate are experiencing 

01760075-29C2-4B3F-99FB-70DD73F286CC.png

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I’m currently at work in Greensburg In and the FZRN is falling fast and furious. Going to make for an interesting drive back to Indy in a couple hours. Looks like Indy is mostly snow right now on radar. KIND still wording their updates as though it’s not going to be much of an event. Hmmm, I don’t know about that. 

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2 minutes ago, weathernerd said:

I’m currently at work in Greensburg In and the FZRN is falling fast and furious. Going to make for an interesting drive back to Indy in a couple hours. Looks like Indy is mostly snow right now on radar. KIND still wording their updates as though it’s not going to be much of an event. Hmmm, I don’t know about that. 

Which radar?  The IND obs have been reporting freezing rain with some sleet mixed in for over an hour.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Which radar?  The IND obs have been reporting freezing rain with some sleet mixed in for over an hour.

Ehh.. just the radar they have here at work. It’s been showing the fzrn/snow line somewhere between Decatur and Marion county. So you’re telling me I’m going to skating all the way back to the west side of Indy! That’s just perfect. 

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2 minutes ago, weathernerd said:

Ehh.. just the radar they have here at work. It’s been showing the fzrn/snow line somewhere between Decatur and Marion county. So you’re telling me I’m going to skating all the way back to the west side of Indy! That’s just perfect. 

Hopefully it won't be too bad.

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1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

WTHR channel 13 has been showing blue over much of the area but the met said her reports coming in were more of sleet and FZRN.

I believe the factory I’m in uses the WISH storm Tracker radar. It’s also been depicting all snow over Indy. But looking at the obs I do see they are saying freezing rain  Whatever... it’s gonna be a long slow trip home either way. 

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Suppose I will make a final call.  I don't think I'm imagining things with the slightly quicker northward progress tonight.  This matters because it will put more of the snow during the early-mid morning hours before temps have a chance to warm up to/above freezing.  It may be pretty much over by then until whatever is left of that small band swings through later in the day.  So with that in mind and looking at the trends on the short range runs, I think 2-3" is doable here.  Split the difference at 2.5"?  

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LOT needs to pull the trigger on an advisory south of I-80, imo.  Snow amounts could be borderline in some areas but roads should be ugly enough and it is still only mid November.

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Wow, IND upgraded part of their cwa to ice storm warning, including Indianapolis.  I don't know but I'm guessing they have never issued one this early in the season. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
118 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...Winter Weather Advisory Tonight and Thursday...

INZ037-039>042-045>049-053>057-061>065-068>072-151430-
/O.UPG.KIND.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-181116T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KIND.IS.W.0001.181115T0618Z-181115T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KIND.WW.Y.0012.181115T1700Z-181116T0000Z/
Boone-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-
Hancock-Henry-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Greene-Monroe-Brown-
Bartholomew-Decatur-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lebanon, Zionsville, Fishers, Carmel,
Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Greencastle,
Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield,
New Castle, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
118 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Snow expected. Additional snow
  accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to
  one quarter of an inch. Total snow accumulations of up to one
  inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central,
  southeast, southwest and west central Indiana.

* WHEN...For the Ice Storm Warning, until noon EST today. For
  the Winter Weather Advisory, from noon today to 7 PM EST this
  evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

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23 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Pretty rare to be watching a snowstorm miss me to the south in November. Expecting maybe a couple mood flakes here, unless that backside paper thin defo band comes to fruition. 

Yeah it's pretty strange indeed.  This will be the 2nd snow system to miss southeast and it's only mid November lol.  

BTW I can definitely see that thin defo band overachieve wherever it sets up later tonight/early tomorrow along the northwest edge.

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