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November 15-16 Storm Potential


Hoosier
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This is sort of a sudden development on the models in the past few cycles, and would like to see another run or two to have greater confidence in it happening but nonetheless we are 4 days away.

Trend has been to leave some energy behind in the southern Plains, which eventually kicks northeastward.  Thermal profiles do support snow (and mixed precip) but it will take some time to refine the details. 

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9 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

I would have held off on "this". Tropical Low in Atlantic is playing havoc with models.

That is what is going to force this energy to stall. I dont know what you mean by havoc when it is pretty much consensus that the tropical low will form near the Bahamas.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty neat how it develops.  There's basically nothing going on at the surface on Wednesday.  

Wow, that is a fascinating look that I can't say I have ever seen before. The energy is almost completely cut off before the incoming shortwave opens the door for it to bounce to the NE and deepen. Guess I'll put it in the GIFs folder whether it actually happens or not. :lol: 

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I was looking at snowfall records for St. Louis and the only time have had a 3" calendar day snowfall in the first 15 days of November was back in 1951, when it happened on the 5th and 6th.  It's happened more in the back half of the month, but not much.  Will they pull it off?

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Louie Louie, oh yes

 

All eyes for the Wednesday night and Thursday time period will be on
mid/upper level cutoff low that forms near the Arklatex region. As
alluded to yesterday, these cutoff lows are typically very difficult
to forecast in terms of both track and timing. Compared to
yesterday, there is however more confidence in this system impacting
the CWA with the potential for significant snowfall (3+ inches).
However, even a slight shift in when the cutoff low ejects out and
its eventual track could have very large ramifications on sensible
weather output.

Currently, based on the track of this upcoming system, it appears
that portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois would
have the highest chances at seeing the most snowfall. While there
are still some concerns about precipitation type, it does appear
that the dry/cold antecedent conditions associated with the previous
arctic air mass and dynamic cooling should yield mostly snow
wherever the deformation zone moves through.

Speaking of the track of the system, model consensus of the 850-hPa
low tracks is roughly from KMEM late Wednesday night into the lower
Ohio Valley late on Thursday. Previous research (Browne and Younkin -
 1970) has shown the heaviest snow axis to be approximately 90
nautical miles (~105 miles) to the left of the track of the 850-hPa
low. Given the strength of this system and the fact that it
continues to deepen into the day on Thursday, this may be a case
where the heaviest axis of snow is just a bit further to the
northwest (say closer to 120-130 miles). This would favor the
heaviest snow axis in the CWA roughly from KFAM to just northwest of
KSLO.

An early look at NWP soundings show a classic heavy signature with
maximum lift centered in a saturated dendritic growth zone (-12 to -
18C). Elevated instability is also noted in this same layer very
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as isentropes fold over
or decrease with height. Below the ice crystal growth zone, there is
a deep isothermal layer around -5C from the surface to near 700 hPa
which suggests dendrites would tend to aggregate. To top
it all off, wind speeds are fairly light throughout the column to
prevent fracturing of snowflakes. In summation, snow-to-liquid
ratios may be fairly high (above 12:1) which would help to increase
snowfall totals.

(Thursday Night - Next Monday)

Behind this next system, northwest flow aloft will establish itself.
A cold front is still expected to move through the region on Friday
night into early Saturday. Temperatures should reach into the upper
40s on Friday ahead of the cold front. While this likely will be the
warmest day of the extended, those highs would still be some 5-10
degrees below normal. Slightly cooler weather is then favored behind
the aforementioned cold front for this upcoming weekend as another
strong surface high settles into the region. Forecast high
temperatures this weekend should be mainly in the 30s before a
slight moderation occurs next Monday as high pressure settles into
the lower Mississippi Valley with southerly return flow returning to
the bi-state area.

Gosselin
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27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This ice map is something out of the depths of winter.  Talk about large coverage

zr_acc.conus.thumb.png.3fb3d496f163f07621007de0f0738030.png

Cold air damming is going to really make this a nightmare out east, probably one of the earliest ice storms on record too. I would have to imagine that there are tons of fully leaved trees still too.

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The northern edge with this looks a lot like yesterday's system, at least in the LOT cwa.  At 2 days out I wasn't entirely sure if I was going to get precip from yesterday's system, and I feel the same way now.  My guess is that a little something falls here but it wouldn't have to shift a ton south to be a shut out.

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I'll believe it when I see it.  Have not seen snow here yet this season although some reported north of Indy.  Not looking for ice at all this season as I had $3000 worth of damage to my car from sliding on ice into a previous 3 car wreck on Jan. 24th of this year.  Models do look interesting though. DPW was very slow to respond to the ice in that Jan. episode and blamed a bad forecast as the reason.

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41 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I'll believe it when I see it.  Have not seen snow here yet this season although some reported north of Indy.  Not looking for ice at all this season as I had $3000 worth of damage to my car from sliding on ice into a previous 3 car wreck on Jan. 24th of this year.  Models do look interesting though. DPW was very slow to respond to the ice in that Jan. episode and blamed a bad forecast as the reason.

If I remember right, it was forecast very well, at least on this board. ^_^

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