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Isotherm

My Winter Outlook 2018-19

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

December was forecasted by many to be warm across the conus, CPC nailed it on their month forecast issued late November.  It was clear very early on the MJO would have a prolonged stay in phase 5.  Personally, I believe the SSW event and possible split of the PV is a game changer to most winter forecasts and not for the better.  I have a very hard time with the delayed but not denied method of forecasting.  If your forecast required A + B + C + D and A failed and B was not as expected, you can't leave C and D alone as if A and B's failure don't have an impact.

Screenshot_20181227-162633_Facebook.jpg

 

 

 

It's clear by your response that you do not understand long range forecasting. It's isn't a linear A+B+C. There are multifarious factors examined pre-season, and those indicators provide a general landscape of what will transpire for the winter. The exact timing as far as progression is more guesswork. The important part is if the forecast correctly ascertains the season overall, bearing in mind the apposite indicators.

I will not be drawn into the trap of impugning the CPC's work. However, their method of forecasting is probabilistic, and they typically err warm. 

Your post is non-scientific and provides no substantiation for your claims regarding the PV split.

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2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

It's clear by your response that you do not understand long range forecasting. It's isn't a linear A+B+C. There are multifarious factors examined pre-season, and those indicators provide a general landscape of what will transpire for the winter. The exact timing as far as progression is more guesswork. The important part is if the forecast correctly ascertains the season overall, bearing in mind the apposite indicators.

I will not be drawn into the trap of impugning the CPC's work. However, their method of forecasting is probabilistic, and they typically err warm. 

Your post is non-scientific and provides no substantiation for your claims regarding the PV split.

I disagree but maybe that is why I do not forecast extremely long range.  To me its like a trader in a bad position and trying to justify why he is correct as he loses more and more money.  Maybe it really is a case of delayed but not denied, but its clear this winter is not progressing as many thought.  Call it the SSW, MJO, Positive SOI in an El Nino....the pattern screams pac jet and fast flow for the foreseeable future.    

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11 hours ago, qg_omega said:

December was forecasted by many to be warm across the conus, CPC nailed it on their month forecast issued late November.  It was clear very early on the MJO would have a prolonged stay in phase 5.  Personally, I believe the SSW event and possible split of the PV is a game changer to most winter forecasts and not for the better.  I have a very hard time with the delayed but not denied method of forecasting.  If your forecast required A + B + C + D and A failed and B was not as expected, you can't leave C and D alone as if A and B's failure don't have an impact.

Screenshot_20181227-162633_Facebook.jpg

I am pretty certain the actual anomalies look nothing like that forecast.  Unfortunately the data is not available until the department of commerce where NOAA falls has appropriated funds.

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This is how the month looks so far, CPC did have the right idea with Utah & Maine cold in their final update. You have to give them that. I'd give it A for temps for honestly, especially with the SW likely to finish near normal given how cold it is now through 12/31.

DtXc9vJUUAErAz3.jpg

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One of the reasons I didn't end up using 1963 as an analog is the PDO was under -2 in Nov 1963. That's a huge difference maker nationally. It may seem overly simplistic, but when I was suggesting Fall 1963 looked opposite Fall 2018, my point wasn't that temps themselves are predictive, but they do tend to indicate MJO issues. I always try to line up the MJO in Oct, with timing variables, that allows you to screw up the other things a bit and not be completely off. The SOI also finished around -13 in Dec 1963, which is over 20 points out from where this Dec is currently, which definitely was not something I expected. It's screwing up a lot of things that are southern stream dependent.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

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16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The fact that we did not get a significant snowstorm in early December was bad luck. The favorable pattern materialized, but there was simply too much confluence. Things like that can not be predicted from a seasonal standpoint.....entirely stochastic in nature.

Yes, unfortunately that seems to be the wild card in LR forecasting.  Also the fact that we have been in a La Nina type pattern for most of December.

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Isotherm, what is your take on March as it relates to the multiple VEI 3 or greater volcanic eruptions lately. I heard from some on the web and some pros at 33andrain we could see effects. Any thoughts on potential cooling effects ?

I see there is a relationship between a lower solar cycle nearing a min and increased volcanic eruptions. Thanks. 

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoes.html

 

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On 12/28/2018 at 11:56 AM, qg_omega said:

I disagree but maybe that is why I do not forecast extremely long range.  To me its like a trader in a bad position and trying to justify why he is correct as he loses more and more money.  Maybe it really is a case of delayed but not denied, but its clear this winter is not progressing as many thought.  Call it the SSW, MJO, Positive SOI in an El Nino....the pattern screams pac jet and fast flow for the foreseeable future.    

All these points remain just important today as backn in December.  Pacific remains for at least the next ten days

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9 hours ago, qg_omega said:

All these points remain just important today as backn in December.  Pacific remains for at least the next ten days

 

 

Your post a few weeks ago stated the following: "Personally, I believe the SSW event and possible split of the PV is a game changer to most winter forecasts and not for the better."

Why didn't you quote your whole forecast? We'll see if your forecast is correct over the coming weeks, but the NAM reversal has already occurred, and it's quite clear to me that a protracted period of blocking is ahead. So, it's far too early to claim victory on your call that the SSW/split event will cause winter forecasts to fail or perform poorly.

Further, there's a major snowstorm ongoing currently in the Mid-west, which will carry to the Mid-Atlantic coast as a significant snowstorm. That wouldn't happen, but for, a favorable GWO/MJO circuit through p7-8, and AAM pulse. It is incorrect to assert we've been in "fast flow" the entirety of January thus far.

The only piece of your post that makes a bit of sense if that the Pacific has been problematic this winter to date w/ regards to a stable PNA structure, and I noted that in a lengthier post the other day. However, that will be altering later this month as AAM/MJO and the SSW after effects constructively interfere. But, again, I don't recall seeing your winter forecast in November, so it's much easier to see these issues after they've already revealed themselves (i.e., the past few weeks).

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3 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Your post a few weeks ago stated the following: "Personally, I believe the SSW event and possible split of the PV is a game changer to most winter forecasts and not for the better."

Why didn't you quote your whole forecast? We'll see if your forecast is correct over the coming weeks, but the NAM reversal has already occurred, and it's quite clear to me that a protracted period of blocking is ahead. So, it's far too early to claim victory on your call that the SSW/split event will cause winter forecasts to fail or perform poorly.

Further, there's a major snowstorm ongoing currently in the Mid-west, which will carry to the Mid-Atlantic coast as a significant snowstorm. That wouldn't happen, but for, a favorable GWO/MJO circuit through p7-8, and AAM pulse. It is incorrect to assert we've been in "fast flow" the entirety of January thus far.

The only piece of your post that makes a bit of sense if that the Pacific has been problematic this winter to date w/ regards to a stable PNA structure, and I noted that in a lengthier post the other day. However, that will be altering later this month as AAM/MJO and the SSW after effects constructively interfere. But, again, I don't recall seeing your winter forecast in November, so it's much easier to see these issues after they've already revealed themselves (i.e., the past few weeks).

The guy is a troll lol. He does this in the NE forum all the time just to get shut down

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