SnowGolfBro Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Any frozen from this storm is a total bonus. We are still 3 weeks from prime snow season. If we fail in December i will start getting nervous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z euro went toward the gfs apparently. shows precip getting to DC by 12z (as snow) then the flip to rain by 14-15z. Has my backyard riding the 32 line through 00z snow map (mostly sleet than snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just hug the 6z FV3. It’s the new GFS anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 the best NAM still has frozen and by best i mean almost useless 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Any frozen from this storm is a total bonus. We are still 3 weeks from prime snow season. If we fail in December i will start getting nervous. December would be too early to get nervous, imo...it's not what we put in the "prime climo" category (save that title for late January onward). Not saying we can't score in December with the right setup...just saying that even some of our best winters (aside from 2009/10 when December was just on steroids) haven't had a lot of shovel-worthy December snow. Again...perhaps this December we get somethig; but if not...it's nowhere near the end of prime climo, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 the best NAM12K run yet....lets see what 3K says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Going to be interesting to see what the dew points and temps do overnight. If we hold cold, we might see that front end thump work out better for us. Glad to see the clouds racing in and getting thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I really have a hard time accepting the GFS having most of the DC and Baltimore metro areas in the mid 30s tomorrow at 12z. I think we've seen plenty of winter precipitation cases in which the GFS has failed to properly model evaporative cooling and then eroded low-level cold air too quickly. While the NAMs can hold on to low-level cold air a little too long, their track record in this kind of setup is superior. I'm not calling for an OMG snow here in the I-95 corridor, but a few hours of snow and then sleet (and perhaps a longer period for the next tier of counties north and west) is still very much on the table, IMO. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: December would be too early to get nervous, imo...it's not what we put in the "prime climo" category (save that title for late January onward). Not saying we can't score in December with the right setup...just saying that even some of our best winters (aside from 2009/10 when December was just on steroids) haven't had a lot of shovel-worthy December snow. Again...perhaps this December we get somethig; but if not...it's nowhere near the end of prime climo, lol I agree. Just pointing out that we are not wasting a winter month in November. I’ve always viewed The Prime snow window for DC as Christmas to Presidents’ Day. We can and have scored outside that window but the odds go way down IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Ha, the emotional swings from model run to model run on here and it's only a pitty little winter event in mid-November! Can you imagine if we get to late January with very little snow to date? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, osfan24 said: Ha, the emotional swings from model run to model run on here and it's only a pitty little winter event in mid-November! Can you imagine if we get to late January with very little snow to date? I can imagine how you'll be...yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I agree. Just pointing out that we are not wasting a winter month in November. I’ve always viewed The Prime snow window for DC as Christmas to Presidents’ Day. We can and have scored outside that window but the odds go way down IMO But we are wasting a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Prob lowering my bar with the 12z suite. Instead of 1" of slush on the patio table I'll go with the sound of sleet on the window with the blinds closed And hiding under the covers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Ha, the emotional swings from model run to model run on here and it's only a pitty little winter event in mid-November! Can you imagine if we get to late January with very little snow to date? are you new here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3k NAM snow map is pitiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: But we are wasting a storm Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3k NAM snow map is pitiful. Ferrier and total snow depth are about as good as they’ve looked, just pushed west a bit. If you want a good map for you, look at the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Ferrier and total snow depth are about as good as they’ve looked, just pushed west a bit. If you want a good map for you, look at the ICON. i'm not that worried, but thanks. its gonna do what its gonna do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Weenie map looked fine to me. which map you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: 3k NAM snow map is pitiful. It's a joke. I think the ferrier and Snow depth maps look much more accurate and realistic though. Unfortunately there not nearly as exciting. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Jandurin said: sweet, so 5 inches of sleet and 1 inch of snow for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, mappy said: 3k NAM snow map is pitiful. sad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Ji said: sad! i agree, it is sad. as your map includes a lot of ****ing sleet, while the map i posted was snow only. enjoy your sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, mappy said: i agree, it is sad. as your map includes a lot of ****ing sleet, while the map i posted was snow only. enjoy your sleet! its Nov 14...it should be 60....sleet is fine in November. I Hope you have a really hard time shoveling it 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 12k looked amazing. Unfortunately it's not nearly as reliable as 3k, and that seemed pretty sleety to rain with very little snow. I do agree with the poster that said the Ferrier and Snow Depth maps also aren't very reliable. They are probably closer to reality in these setups than the 10:1 maps, but they are usually pretty underdone in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, I was looking at the TT map. I think each vendor has it's own algorithm for snow accumulation. I'm hoping to not use those this season. They've gotten out of control at this point. yeah, i hear you. people just need to realize that most snow maps include sleet as snow. which is highly misleading in this case. poor ji. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Ji said: its Nov 14...it should be 60....sleet is fine in November. I Hope you have a really hard time shoveling it awww shucks, thanks friend! hope yours melts right away and you disappear again until the next threat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, mappy said: yeah, i hear you. people just need to realize that most snow maps include sleet as snow. which is highly misleading in this case. poor ji. sleet is the new snow and it counts towards your yearly snowfall total 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 This is probably more realistic... Unfortunately..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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