WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just looked at the 0z euro. Holy cow it’s a stone cold assassin. Looks substantially colder than the GFS and makes the flip back to snow/mix Friday morning with the ULL pass. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1-3 isnt looking out of the question out this way. But those snow maps are laughable. No one mentioned this mornings RGEM. It has snow starting out in DC at the end of it's run. Although it performed poorly last winter so I dont know what to think. It used to be my go to model for the shorter range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Got a good feeling about this event. First flakes for everyone and advisory level event north of I-70 and west of US 15. That's pretty good for mid-November in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 37 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Not in November Nov 11, 1987. 13" in Southern MD. Just saying... it's not impossible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Important context for just how rare this chase is for the beltways dwellers: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Important context for just how rare this chase is for the beltways dwellers: Looks like we're due then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Hahahaha. 5-8 for me on The Weather Channel app. No. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just looked at the 0z euro. Holy cow it’s a stone cold assassin. Looks substantially colder than the GFS and makes the flip back to snow/mix Friday morning with the ULL pass. How’s the Euro look for the likes of you, me, and @osfan24? Think we can score 1-2? Will I see you at the top of the sledding hill? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Scraff said: How’s the Euro look for the likes of you, me, and @osfan24? Think we can score 1-2? Will I see you at the top of the sledding hill? If the euro is locked in with that solution, we will likely see some accumulation. Congrats @mappy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Facebook reminded me that today in 2013 I got accumulating snow in Parkton. So snow this early does happen! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbyme24 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I'm trying to keep my expectations in check. If I am interpreting what you all are saying in regards to the models - this would be under absolutely perfect conditions that are highly unlikely to actually converge for a mid-November storm? Is that what the Kuchera ratio tries to account for? So realistically in Baltimore maybe 1-3 based on the most recent models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Abbyme24 said: I'm trying to keep my expectations in check. If I am interpreting what you all are saying in regards to the models - this would be under absolutely perfect conditions that are highly unlikely to actually converge for a mid-November storm? Is that what the Kuchera ratio tries to account for? So realistically in Baltimore maybe 1-3 based on the most recent models? I live just up the road from you in Reisterstown and would not expect more than 1" - 3" for Baltimore's northern suburbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Is the 32k nam reliable in peoples opinions here compared to the 12k and 3k? I’m trying to figure out how much stock to put into it when looking at factors for Wed night/Thur such as 2m and 850 temps, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 All NAM disclaimers aside, it has the ULL faster and slightly south of 6z. Initial snowy, sleety mix for all then the usual spots stay cold through 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Is the 32k nam reliable in peoples opinions here compared to the 12k and 3k? I’m trying to figure out how much stock to put into it when looking at factors for Wed night/Thur such as 2m and 850 temps, etc.. 32k nam is just the 12k nam at a lower resolution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Is the 32k nam reliable in peoples opinions here compared to the 12k and 3k? I’m trying to figure out how much stock to put into it when looking at factors for Wed night/Thur such as 2m and 850 temps, etc.. I don’t feel like we’ve referenced the 32k in years. I genuinely think the first time we brought it up in a long tine was yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Is the 32k nam reliable in peoples opinions here compared to the 12k and 3k? I’m trying to figure out how much stock to put into it when looking at factors for Wed night/Thur such as 2m and 850 temps, etc.. No. It’s just a downsampled version of the regular NAM. The 3km NAM is the only one to ever look at. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 With the Euro and Ukie on board and trending better, I have a hard time believing at this point that we aren't looking at a significant winter event in parts of the area. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: No. It’s just a downsampled version of the regular NAM. The 3km NAM is the only one to ever look at. Is there any precursor as to it giving us a clue as to what the 3k nam is going to produce? Just curious because it does have the high a little further west comparing it to 6z as well as popping the low a little sooner in the Carolinas, thus locking in the cold air a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Before we get fooled by the 3k, NAM and it’s 10:1 map, a friendly reminder that the 3k and 12k both have a positive snow depth map. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Didn’t see any mention of the 6z Euro. Anyone get a look at it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Quicker onset with precip. ULL still goes north of the area so no now after the initial thump but that is still way out in clown range. ULL was quicker overall, just need it south! Edit: 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Per LWX's Winter Storm page -- https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3k is quicker as well with a pretty good thump from Fredericksburg North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, LP08 said: 3k is quicker as well with a pretty good thump from Fredericksburg North. 12z 3km NAM snow 10:1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12z 3km NAM snow 10:1 lol 3k Ferrier map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, yoda said: 12z 3km NAM snow 10:1 lol Lol I saw that. 90% of that is sleet/frza. DCA stays right around 32 throughout the event but there are warm layers poking in when looking at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Does the NCEP map calculate in their snowdepth changing sleet or how does that work? Everyone talking about 10:1.. 10:1 isn't so bad, it's not really humid out.. There's a lot of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 So if I remember correctly from last winter did the RGEM have a bias toward overdoing low level cold air? Based on the 12z run it would be pretty nuts for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: So if I remember correctly from last winter did the RGEM have a bias toward overdoing low level cold air? Based on the 12z run it would be pretty nuts for the entire area. RGEM did seem to have a cold bias last year, but what it's doing at 12z doesn't look unreasonable. Definitely sleety. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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