snowlover2 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 It appears likely that the E/SE parts of the sub will see their first accumulating snow of the season on Monday/Tuesday. Don't have a 12z Euro snow map but it looks more like the 12z GGEM than the 12z GFS. GFS has been slowly shifting west some with the last couple runs. Don't remember the last time we had this early a snow event at least this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 18z GFS brings the snow area NW more in line with GGEM/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: 18z GFS brings the snow area NW more in line with GGEM/Euro. Wouldn't be surprised if the trend continues like the rest of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Been following this possible event for the last few days. Would be one of the earliest widespread advisory to warning event I've seen so early in the season. Arguably winter weather advisories from Texas to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Like where I sit. Inch of slush in early November, after the cold stole my patio sitting 'bout September 15. Worse, be torching in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 00z GFS putting a stripe of 4" snow up and near Ohio River and NE. Believe it if you wish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 GFS continues slight west trend. Parts of Michigan might actually see some from this if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Pretty weak system regardless of track....pos tilted trough.... and marginal temps equals slushy inch on cars and grass at best. I'm more excited about the warm up that's starting to show on the models after this cold shot 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 2 hours ago, buckeye said: Pretty weak system regardless of track....pos tilted trough.... and marginal temps equals slushy inch on cars and grass at best. I'm more excited about the warm up that's starting to show on the models after this cold shot I think there could be a zone of some higher amounts. Nothing too big but more noteworthy because of the calendar. MJO is actually progressing into the warm phases so I think the warmup is pretty much inevitable. Of course it would've been kind of unrealistic to expect non-stop winter at this point with no pullbacks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Hoping for a NW shift. The 12z NAM came in with a displaced (compared to the other models) northwest band of 1 to 2 inches just south of me. Considering the rest of the extended looks boring, I'll hop on that train hoping for another inch of snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Ya, I am not expecting a blockbuster by any means. Right now if Toronto can get 1.7 inches of snow or more from this system it would produce the snowiest Nov.12th on record. The 13th would be a bit tougher to break but the daily record is still only 3.5 inches. Right now the models are showing a widespread 2-4 inches in the GTA. Sorry for the in your backyard analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 35 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Ya, I am not expecting a blockbuster by any means. Right now if Toronto can get 1.7 inches of snow or more from this system it would produce the snowiest Nov.12th on record. The 13th would be a bit tougher to break but the daily record is still only 3.5 inches. Right now the models are showing a widespread 2-4 inches in the GTA. Sorry for the in your backyard analysis. Don't be sorry for wanting snow in your back yard. We all try to pull out the magnet here while tracking. I will be happy with another coating, which is all I can expect this time of year as Hoosier said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Wow! A lot of negativity on here, even from Buckeye. Meanwhile, GFS still calling for 4" in some areas. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 This might be a case of the NAM overdoing things a bit but the 00z run gets precip pretty far north. At first glance it would seem kinda unlikely with the surface low being down around the Gulf coast but there is some decent mid/upper level support well north into Michiana, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This might be a case of the NAM overdoing things a bit but the 00z run gets precip pretty far north. At first glance it would seem kinda unlikely with the surface low being down around the Gulf coast but there is some decent mid/upper level support well north into Michiana, etc. Wow! You're right about that. The NAM has really consolidated/shifted north through the day. Snow possibly falling literally just southeast of the QCA now, Sunday night thru Monday. If this thing can get a tad bit stronger w/ one more shift north, flakes may be flying once again! Or, it's probably just wishful thinking this far north, but I think Michiana is def. in play now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 51 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This might be a case of the NAM overdoing things a bit but the 00z run gets precip pretty far north. At first glance it would seem kinda unlikely with the surface low being down around the Gulf coast but there is some decent mid/upper level support well north into Michiana, etc. Also wildly further west compared to the 18Z run. Gets almost to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 fwiw, GFS and Canadian try to do something next Thursday with the energy that gets left behind. Thermal profiles are messy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 1 hour ago, ams30721us said: Wow! You're right about that. The NAM has really consolidated/shifted north through the day. Snow possibly falling literally just southeast of the QCA now, Sunday night thru Monday. If this thing can get a tad bit stronger w/ one more shift north, flakes may be flying once again! Or, it's probably just wishful thinking this far north, but I think Michiana is def. in play now! FWIW the 00z RGEM also is trying to amplify/shift a bit to near the I-80 corridor on Monday. Nothing major but maybe a few flakes during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: fwiw, GFS and Canadian try to do something next Thursday with the energy that gets left behind. Thermal profiles are messy though. That piece of energy becomes almost like a cut-off low with a strong upper level jet streak. Not much room for it amplify though. Its still worth watching especially for eastern sub-forum areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Ukie has the Thursday-Friday system too. Edit: so does the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Lol it's 6 weeks before the Winter Solstice and the mayhem has already begun. I'm starting to model watch for possible snow tomorrow night and they're all on different pages for here. Ill take nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Looks worse every time I look at it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Looks like some snow tonight in Southern Michigan. 2nd measurable snowfall of the season before the midpoint of November, not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Looks like about an inch of snow on the way here. NAM bounced around a bit but it looks like it's going to end up being more accurate with the farther north extent of precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Low level dry air going to be an issue around here. Another windshield dusting is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 About a half inch so far in Macomb, IL. Snow has pretty much let up for the meantime there are a couple small bands to the NW but I don't expect much more. At least its better than 40 degrees and brown landscape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Colder surfaces are covered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 45 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Colder surfaces are covered with snow. Be glad you are that far north. Just cold rain here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Had a little virga earlier. Could almost smell the snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1.5 smi vis under mod SN as of 8:15 pm. Snow on snow Nov 12th. Incredible. HRRR liked me for 2" per 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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