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Roger Smith

2018-2019 Great Lakes / Ohio Valley snowfall contest

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The contest follows the same format as the past three winters. Predict the total seasonal snowfall (some may have already fallen at some locations) using the following table as a guide (1986-2015 average values and the past three seasons are shown) ... please use the entry form below this table. Note there are three tie-breakers involving monthly amounts at ORD, IND and DTW. 

As per last winter, an alternate location is needed for London (YXU) and Tillsonburg will be used. Climate stats are similar as YXU is located east of the city, Tillsonburg is about 20 miles further east.

 

LOCATION _______________ 1986-2015 ____2015-16____ 2016-17____2017-18

Alpena, MI (APN) _____________ 80.4 _______ 88.8 _______66.4 _____ 82.5

Chicago, IL (ORD) ____________ 38.1 _______ 31.2 _______26.1 _____ 36.1

Cleveland, OH (CLE) ___________67.2 _______32.8 _______ 37.3 _____ 53.1

Columbus, OH (CMH) __________28.4 _______ 17.1 _______ 9.3 _____ 30.7

Detroit, MI (DTW) ____________ 44.8 _______ 35.3 ______ 37.9 _____ 61.0

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _________ 34.0 _______ 20.0 ______ 18.5 _____ 32.7

Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) ________77.1 _______ 61.1 ______ 60.1 _____ 77.7

Green Bay, WI (GRB) __________54.2 _______ 50.0 ______ 53.2 _____ 68.1

Indianapolis, IN (IND) _________ 25.9 _______ 13.3 _______9.7 _____ 23.2

La Crosse, WI (LSE) ___________46.1 _______ 40.3 ______ 42.2 _____ 49.8

London, ON (YXU) ____________ 75.7 _______ 65.2 ______ 66.1 _____ 65.7

Louisville, KY (SDF) ___________ 13.9 _______ 14.9 _______ 2.7 _____ 19.1

Marquette, MI (MQT) _________ 199.8 ______ 160.9 _____ 154.0 ____ 175.3

Milwaukee, WI (MKE) __________49.2 ________39.1 ______ 37.6 _____ 46.7

Minneapolis, MN (MSP) ________ 50.6_________36.7 ______ 32.0 _____ 78.3

Moline, IL (MLI) ______________ 33.5 ________ 24.1 ______22.4 _____ 41.7

Paducah, KY (PAH)_____________ 9.2 ________ 12.1 _______1.2 _____ 13.7

Peoria, IL (PIA) _______________24.9 ________ 15.3 ______13.9 _____ 32.1

St. Louis, MO (STL) ___________ 18.4 ________ 10.9 _______3.2 ______ 7.1

Toronto, ON (YYZ) ____________ 42.5 ________ 25.9 ______32.6 _____ 43.1

------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------

ENTRY FORM -- includes snowfall to date (will be updated regularly to end of entry period)

... keep in mind that your forecast should include these amounts as well as all snow for rest of season to May 31st

APN __10.1" (0.2, 9.9, 0)

ORD __12.7" (all Nov)

CLE __ 4.4" (all Nov)

CMH __ 2.1" (all Nov)

DET __ 6.7" (all Nov)

FWA __ 2.1" (all Nov)

GRR __14.4" (all Nov)

GRB __ 5.1" (Tr, 3.8, 1.3)

IND __ 0.4" (all Nov)

LSE __ 2.6" (0.1, 1.9, 0.6)

YXU __ 3.2" (8.0 cm) (all Nov)

SDF __ 0.5" (all Nov)

MQT __42.4" (4.2, 37.7, 0.5)

MKE __ 6.6" (all Nov)

MSP __ 6.6" (0.3, 4.0, 2.3)

MLI __18.6" (0.2, 18.4, 0)

PAH __ 2.3" (all Nov)

PIA __ 9.8" (all Nov)

STL __ 5.2" (all Nov)

YYZ __ 7.5" (18.8 cm) (2.4,15.6,0.8)

(current updates through end of November)

(amounts in brackets where they appear are Oct, Nov, Dec 1)

(any snowfall on Dec 1-3 before contest deadline is added in)

 

Tiebreakers

1. December 2018 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal)

2. January 2019 snowfall IND (8.6" normal)

3. February 2019 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you want to see individual years in the 1986-2015 period, check the 2015-16 contest thread (several pages into the archives now), post number one there has a table of the 30 years in the period used. 

DEADLINE FOR ENTRIES __ End of day Nov 30th (06z Dec 1), could be extended if snowfall not too advanced and we need more entries _ 15-20 entries have been received the past few years. 

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APN 65"

ORD 35"

CLE 83"

CMH 22"

DET 48"

FWA 37"

GRR 77"

GRB 45"

IND 25"

LSE 35"

YXU 60"

SDF 18"

MQT 185"

MSP 35"

MLI 31"

PAH 18"

PIA 20"

STL 20"

YYZ 50"

Tiebreakers

1. December 2018 snowfall ORD 6.7"

2. January 2019 snowfall IND 10.2"

3. February 2019 snowfall DTW 15.2"

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APN __  77.0”

ORD __  45.8”

CLE __   82.4”

CMH __  38.9”

DET __   58.4”

FWA __  47.8”

 GRR __  82.0”

 GRB __   55.6”

IND __     28.8”

LSE __    40.6”

 YXU __   104.4”

SDF __   17.7”

MQT __  189.0”

 MKE __  54.0”

MSP __  47.7”

 MLI __   27.0”

PAH __   21.0”

PIA __  22.0”

STL __  25.0”

YYZ __  63.2”

 Tiebreakers

 1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (10.2”)

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (11.0”)

 3. February 2018 snowfall (12.0”)

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Alright, time to defend my title!

 

APN 84.5"

ORD 45.4"

CLE 66.1"

CMH 27.3"

DET 52.1"

FWA 36.1"

GRR 75.1"

GRB 49.8"

IND 26.2"

LSE 41.3"

YXU 65.1"

SDF 14.2"

MQT 181.2"

MKE 42.3"

MSP 48.3"

MLI 40.7"

PAH 11.4"

PIA 26.3"

STL 16.2"

YYZ 51.3"

Tiebreakers

1. December 2018 snowfall ORD 9.2"

2. January 2019 snowfall IND 8.4"

3. February 2019 snowfall DTW 18.3"

 

Also I'm assuming you didn't mean last years snow totals for the tiebreakers.  Otherwise I think we could all be very accurate with our guesses.

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

3 entries? Need to bump this back up some.

I really suck at this but I'll try to get my entries in this weekend

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We'll get our field of entries, deadline is end of the month so no worries ...

... and I fixed the non-updated portion of the entry form, now reads correctly ...

My long-range forecast in general is looking for at least normal snowfall and perhaps a bit above in the upper Midwest, probably a lot of changes in pattern throughout, a bit of everything sort of a winter ahead. Sometimes that kind of winter produces a memorable storm though. 

More lake effect than last winter however, so have bumped up those lake effect locations.

 

ENTRY FORM 

APN __ 90.5

ORD __ 35.0

CLE __ 80.0

CMH __ 27.0

DET __ 45.0

FWA __ 30.0

GRR __ 90.0

GRB __ 70.0

IND __ 27.0

LSE __ 55.0

YXU __ 87.0

SDF __ 10.5

MQT __200.5

MKE __ 45.5

MSP __ 66.0

MLI __ 39.0

PAH __ 12.0

PIA __ 30.0

STL __ 14.5

YYZ __ 55.0

Tiebreakers

1. December 2018 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) _ 13.5

2. January 2019 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) _ 10.0

3. February 2019 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) _ 12.5

=========================================================================================

 

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Note to contest entrants -- feel free to edit to Nov 30th, I don't make any copies of your posts until after that deadline, so no need to flag an edit ... and be aware that contest runs start to end of season so anything that happens in November counts. MQT already has 20.6" of snow this season FYI. 

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The entry form now contains snowfall to date for all twenty locations, as you probably are aware, the contest runs from October to May and so these amounts would be part of your forecast totals.

MQT already up to almost 40 inches. The amount shown for YXU - Tillsonburg is likely about 4" short of current totals after squalls hit that area today. (this station updates two days behind the others)

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On 11/7/2018 at 5:18 PM, Roger Smith said:

APN __ 72"

ORD __42"

CLE __ 57"

CMH __ 29"

DET __ 38"

FWA __ 30"

GRR __68"

GRB __ 49"

IND __ 25"

LSE __ 42"

YXU __ 66" (8.0 cm)

SDF __ 12"

MQT __188"

MKE __ 47"

MSP __ 47"

MLI __40"

PAH __ 12"

PIA __ 29"

STL __ 22"

YYZ __ 48" (18.0 cm) 

Tiebreakers

1. December 2018 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal)    6"

2. January 2019 snowfall IND (8.6" normal)     7"

3. February 2019 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal)   8"

 

 

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Just to fill out the field to a reasonable size, I will extend the deadline for entries three days to the end of Monday, Dec 3rd (06z 4th will be the lock-up time).

You can edit previous submissions to that deadline, no need to mention it as I don't copy anything until after that deadline has passed.

I will maintain the log of actual snowfall in the entry form to the end of Nov 30th, not beyond if it does snow in the first three days of December. That is so I can convert the entry form into the first posting on actual amounts (Oct-Nov). 

Have mentioned the contest out of forum to see if we can get a few "blow-ins" from other snow capitals. 

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Alpena, MI (APN)  90"

Chicago, IL (ORD)  44"

Cleveland, OH (CLE)  59"

Columbus, OH (CMH)  29"

Detroit, MI (DTW)  41"

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA)  26"

Grand Rapids, MI (GRR)  73"

Green Bay, WI (GRB)  47"

Indianapolis, IN (IND)  24"

La Crosse, WI (LSE)  42"

London, ON (YXU)  78"

Louisville, KY (SDF)  9"

Marquette, MI (MQT)  175"

Milwaukee, WI (MKE)  43"

Minneapolis, MN (MSP)  47"

Moline, IL (MLI)  46"

Paducah, KY (PAH)  11"

Peoria, IL (PIA)  31"

St. Louis, MO (STL)  24"

Toronto, ON (YYZ)  41"

 

Tiebreakers

1. December 2018 snowfall ORD  6.7" 

2. January 2019 snowfall IND  9.6"

3. February 2019 snowfall DTW  13.4"

 

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Alpena, MI (APN)  96"

Chicago, IL (ORD)  39"

Cleveland, OH (CLE)  41"

Columbus, OH (CMH)  22"

Detroit, MI (DTW)  50"

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA)  31"

Grand Rapids, MI (GRR)  70"

Green Bay, WI (GRB)  45"

Indianapolis, IN (IND)  17"

La Crosse, WI (LSE)  35"

London, ON (YXU)  80"

Louisville, KY (SDF)  11"

Marquette, MI (MQT)  200"

Milwaukee, WI (MKE)  34"

Minneapolis, MN (MSP)  55"

Moline, IL (MLI)  40"

Paducah, KY (PAH)  15"

Peoria, IL (PIA)  26"

St. Louis, MO (STL)  30"

Toronto, ON (YYZ)  47"

 

Tiebreakers

1. December 2018 snowfall ORD  4.1" 

2. January 2019 snowfall IND  11"

3. February 2019 snowfall DTW  16"

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My guesses:

ALP: 81.7"
ORD: 50.0"
CLE: 83.9"
CMH: 45.0"
DTW: 56.5"
FWA: 41.5"
GRR: 82.4"
GRB: 48.9"
IND: 42.7"
LSE: 38.2"
YXU: 277.9 cm/109.4"
SDF: 23.0"
MQT: 145.2"
MKE: 47.1"
MSP: 40.4"
MLI: 32.3"
PAH: 18.5"
PIA: 35.0"
STL: 25.2"
YYZ: 125.0 cm/49.2"

Tiebreakers:

ORD-Dec: 11.7"
IND-Jan: 13.7"
DTW-Feb: 14.2"

P.S. It's nice to see a few Canadian cities in the mix.

 

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------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------

ENTRY FORM

Alpena, MI (APN)  75"

Chicago, IL (ORD)  37"

Cleveland, OH (CLE)  50"

Columbus, OH (CMH)  26"

Detroit, MI (DTW)  39"

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA)  30"

Grand Rapids, MI (GRR)  73"

Green Bay, WI (GRB)  51"

Indianapolis, IN (IND)  20"

La Crosse, WI (LSE)  45"

London, ON (YXU)  65"

Louisville, KY (SDF)  12"

Marquette, MI (MQT)  172"

Milwaukee, WI (MKE)  41"

Minneapolis, MN (MSP)  48"

Moline, IL (MLI)  38"

Paducah, KY (PAH)  14"

Peoria, IL (PIA)  29"

St. Louis, MO (STL)  17"

Toronto, ON (YYZ)  37"

 

Tiebreakers

1. December 2018 snowfall ORD  10.7" 

2. January 2019 snowfall IND  13.8"

3. February 2019 snowfall DTW  14.9"

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ENTRY FORM

APN __76.4"

ORD __44.1"

CLE __ 49.5"

CMH __ 34.7"

DET __ 43.2"

FWA __ 33.2"

GRR __ 65.9"

GRB __ 47.0"

IND __ 31.4"

LSE __ 38.8"

YXU __ 70.1"

SDF __ 24.6"

MQT __ 216.0"

MKE __ 44.7"

MSP __ 53.1"

MLI __45.1"

PAH __ 16.9"

PIA __ 36.3"

STL __ 26.6"

YYZ __ 52.0"

 

Tiebreakers

1. December 2018 snowfall ORD   3.6"

2. January 2019 snowfall IND (8.6" normal)   9.4"

3. February 2019 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal)  13.1"

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APN 72"

ORD 30"

CLE 91"

CMH 27"

DET 41"

FWA 36"

GRR 75"

GRB 49"

IND 31"

LSE 31"

YXU 64"

SDF 14"

MQT 212"

MSP 30"

MLI 34"

PAH 22"

PIA 20"

STL 16"

YYZ 46"

Tiebreakers

1. December 2018 snowfall ORD 4.5"

2. January 2019 snowfall IND 12"

3. February 2019 snowfall DTW 10.5"

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I guess we have reached the deadline, will be making up some sort of table of entries soon. Would be inclined to accept any forecasts posted rest of Tuesday 4th before I get that project finished, but as soon as a table of entries appears, the contest is closed to participating entries though. Let's say midnight Tuesday CST will be the absolute deadline, it takes a few hours to get this into excel format and processed then transcribed to the website. 

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Table of entries for snowfall contest 2018-19

_________________________________________

These forecasts are arranged in order of total snowfall 

 

FORECASTER _________ APN_ORD_CLE_CMH_DTW__FWA_GRR_GRB_IND_LSE__YXU_SDF__MQT_MKE_MSP_MLI__PAH_PIA__STL_YYZ __ TOTAL

 

dmc76 _______________77.0_45.8_82.4_38.9_58.4_47.8_82.0_55.6_28.8_40.6_104.4_17.7__189.0_54.0_47.7_27.0_21.0_22.0_25.0_63.2__1128.3

Roger Smith __________ 90.5_35.0_80.0_27.0_45.0_30.0_90.0_70.0_27.0_55.0__87.0_10.5__200.5_45.5_66.0_39.0_12.0_30.0_14.5_55.0__1109.5

DonSutherland.1 _______81.7_50.0_83.9_45.0_56.5_41.5_82.4_48.9_42.7_38.2_109.4_23.0__145.2_47.1_40.4_32.3_18.5_35.0_25.2_49.2__1096.1

vpbob21 _____________ 76.4_44.1_49.5_34.7_43.2_33.2_65.9_47.0_31.4_38.8__70.1_24.6__216.0_44.7_53.1_45.1_16.9_36.3_26.6_52.0__1049.6

 

___ Contest normal ____ 80.4_38.1_67.2_28.4_44.8_34.0_77.1_54.2_25.9_46.1__75.7_13.9__199.8_49.2_50.6_33.5__9.2_24.9_18.4_42.5___1013.9

 

madwx _______________84.5_45.4_66.1_27.3_52.1_36.1_75.1_49.8_26.2_41.3__65.1_14.2__181.2_42.3_48.3_40.7_11.4_26.3_16.2_51.3__1000.9

 

___ Contest median ____77.0_42.0_66.1_27.3_45.0_33.2_75.0_49.0_26.2_40.6__70.1_14.0__188.0_43.0_47.7_39.0_15.0_29.0_22.0_49.2___998.4*

 

Mississauga Snow _____ 96.0_39.0_41.0_22.0_50.0_31.0_70.0_45.0_17.0_35.0__80.0_11.0__200.0_34.0_55.0_40.0_15.0_26.0_30.0_47.0___984.0

cyclone77 ____________ 90.0_44.0_59.0_29.0_41.0_26.0_73.0_47.0_24.0_42.0__78.0__9.0__175.0_43.0_47.0_46.0_11.0_31.0_24.0_41.0___980.0

Jackstraw ____________ 72.0_30.0_91.0_27.0_41.0_36.0_75.0_49.0_31.0_31.0__64.0_14.0__212.0_35.0_30.0_34.0_22.0_20.0_16.0_46.0___976.0

slowpoke _____________72.0_42.0_57.0_29.0_38.0_30.0_68.0_49.0_25.0_42.0__66.0_12.0__188.0_47.0_47.0_40.0_12.0_29.0_22.0_48.0___963.0

Stebo ________________65.0_35.0_83.0_22.0_48.0_37.0_77.0_45.0_25.0_35.0__60.0_18.0__185.0_40.0_35.0_31.0_18.0_20.0_20.0_50.0___949.0

DAFF ________________75.0_37.0_50.0_26.0_39.0_30.0_73.0_51.0_20.0_45.0__65.0_12.0__172.0_41.0_48.0_38.0_14.0_29.0_17.0_37.0___919.0

______________________________________

*contest median total is sum of twenty median forecasts, the median total is 984.0



Tiebreakers (same order as table of entries)

 

dmc76 ______________ Dec ORD 10.2" __ Jan IND 11.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.0"

Roger Smith __________Dec ORD 13.5" __ Jan IND 10.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.5"

DonSutherland.1 ______ Dec ORD 11.7" __ Jan IND 13.7" ___ Feb DTW 14.2"

vpbob21 _____________ Dec ORD 3.6" ___Jan IND 9.4" ____ Feb DTW 13.1"

madwx ______________ Dec ORD 9.2" ___ Jan IND 8.4" ____Feb DTW 18.3"

Mississauga Snow ______ Dec ORD 4.1" ___ Jan IND 11.0"___ Feb DTW 16.0"

cyclone77 ____________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 9.6" ___ Feb DTW 13.4"

Jackstraw ____________ Dec ORD 4.5" ___ Jan IND 12.0"___Feb DTW 10.5"

slowpoke _____________ Dec ORD 6.0" ___ Jan IND 7.0" ___ Feb DTW 8.0"

Stebo _______________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 10.2" ___Feb DTW 15.2"

DAFF________________ Dec ORD 10.7" ___Jan IND 13.8" ___Feb DTW 14.9"

(mean of above entries) _________7.9" __________ 10.6" ___________ 13.5"

 

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If you want to share any forecasts I can score them sort of equivalent rank, as it's only a fun contest, but I guess we are pretty far into the season now (especially for some places). 

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There isn't really a big range in the forecasts, and having the large dump at MLI, PIA and ORD already tends to even out the range of further forecast amounts. Looking at yours, you just went a bit lower at a lot of the locations and yet all three of your tiebreakers are above the averages too. The only real outlier forecasts I can see from anyone would be the higher and lower ends for CLE so there's a question mark placed over the lake effect potential there, I suppose some might be thinking it will be so cold that Lake Erie will freeze early and limit CLE that way, others may be thinking it will be so cold there will be a lot of snow from Lake Huron getting all the way across anyway. Some may have reasoned that while cold, the flow will be WSW which keeps squalls away from CLE (but limits them for YXU and GRR also). 

The contest may be won or lost with the CLE forecast since it has such a wider range than many of the others. 

This Tillsonburg site may not be a perfect match for YXU, they seemed to avoid one snow squall event in November that I'm sure gave 5-10 cms at YXU. But their long term averages are only marginally smaller. 

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I wonder how the percentile snow totals to date would correspond to averages to date? Seems to me, most if not all locations are on the low side with the lack of snow so far this season.

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Except for MLI and PIA which are probably going to run ahead most of the winter after their fast start. ORD probably still a bit ahead. I would think in the average winter, 15% of total snowfall has occurred by this date and 25% by end of December, 50% by end of January (more at lake effect locations), 75% by end of February, and 90% by end of March. While the contest region is at 20% that's biased by three locations that went well over, plus STL fairly high already. MQT got plenty of lake effect in October-November. The rest of the locations are already behind, I think. 

This low coming through might surprise, it does start to phase as it reaches Lake Ontario. Toronto might get a few inches of wet snow out of it. 

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For the first tie-breaker (let's face it, these never will be breaking any ties, but just add three more elements to the contest) ...

ORD managed the scanty total of 1.4" with a late surge out of deepest futility, and that came not that near even our lowest forecast, so the lower you went, the more ties you can break. 

Our best effort was 3.6" by vpBob21, then 4.1" from Mississauga Snow and 4.5" from Jackstraw. Our average was 7.9".

The amounts have been updated in the post dated Dec 17th (edited to Jan 1st). Not much snow was reported since the November snowfall event anywhere in the contest grid except for MQT, APN and GRB. 

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STL just moved past the minimum forecast (from me) with 7.8" reported on Friday 11th. I have boosted the table by 8" and will adjust that when a Saturday report is added. 

I think this is the first forecast overtaken by reality in this winter snowfall contest. 

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