Hoosier Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Should have at least 2 or 3 systems to watch over the next 10 days. Details tbd of course. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 42 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Should have at least 2 or 3 systems to watch over the next 10 days. Details tbd of course. yep. looks busy. valid concern here that each track rolls right overhead leaving us on the warm side,dryslot, backwash flurries end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Cold hasnt pressed east enough . GFS and Euro showing western cutters. Trough still a bit too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 What would we need to see in this pattern to get the storms to cut less next week? If the MJO won't do it, what will?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 yikes, the pattern looks active but mostly rain. Those that were calling for below normal February temperatures definitely did not envision these many cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: yikes, the pattern looks active but mostly rain. Those that were calling for below normal February temperatures definitely did not envision these many cutters. Pretty much the world was calling for a cold February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 IMO too many assumptions being made based off operational runs 5+ days out. Next Tuesday-Wednesday system very well could be a cutter and congrats MSP but recall that the operational ECMWF and GFS both had much colder solutions with it as recently as last night. Still plenty of spread in EPS members, so too early to call how things go, especially considering how much medium and even short range guidance has struggled this season. Beyond that system, I continue to like the look of the pattern, especially central and western subforum. I don't trust the crazy MJO amplitude of the GEFS on the RMM plots, also a reason to doubt the 500 mb pattern on it as well as op GFS. EPS has and continues to look more reasonable with MJO forecast. It has a very strong and stable -EPO along with lower amplitude MJO moving into p8 and then p1, which are cold phases. Maybe somewhat of a gradient pattern with modest positive height anomalies in the southeast and east but looks nothing like a massive torchy southeast ridge. In addition, remains to be seen if it's a phantom signal but today both EPS and GEFS went toward a negative AO and NAO beyond 2/13, which would be another reason to doubt a predominantly warm rainer/cutter pattern shown on clown range on some op runs. Should this pattern work out, beyond whatever happens next Tue-Wed, I see it being continued active and biased cold for a good chunk of the sub, so I'm pretty optimistic for it turning snowy again. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 To illustrate previous post, MJO RMM plots from CPC and 500 mb height and anomaly forecast valid 12z Saturday 2/16 from the GEFS and EPS. I suspect that the nearly off the charts MJO is leading to the much more pronounced southeast ridging look on the GEFS and this MJO projection is unlikely to be correct. The BCGEFS MJO and CFS MJO is still relatively high amplitude into p8 but more realistic looking and overall EPS looks most realistic. You can see that the -EPO is similarly strong on GEFS and EPS, which is something that the GEFS has also caved to EPS on from previous runs a few/several days ago. The position of that EPO ridge and western trough is not so far west that there should be such a pronounced southeast ridge. If I'm right that this is MJO related, then expect the southeast ridge/WAR signal to mute on the GEFS and for the OP runs to back off the cutterish look in the longer ranges. EPS as mentioned in previous post looks like a favorable -EPO/-PNA combo for an active storm track biased colder, with possible further help coming from -NAO/-AO if that signal comes to fruition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Yeah I don't buy that GEFS plot, that would be one of the strongest phase 8 waves on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 7:25 PM, RCNYILWX said: To illustrate previous post, MJO RMM plots from CPC and 500 mb height and anomaly forecast valid 12z Saturday 2/16 from the GEFS and EPS. I suspect that the nearly off the charts MJO is leading to the much more pronounced southeast ridging look on the GEFS and this MJO projection is unlikely to be correct. The BCGEFS MJO and CFS MJO is still relatively high amplitude into p8 but more realistic looking and overall EPS looks most realistic. You can see that the -EPO is similarly strong on GEFS and EPS, which is something that the GEFS has also caved to EPS on from previous runs a few/several days ago. The position of that EPO ridge and western trough is not so far west that there should be such a pronounced southeast ridge. If I'm right that this is MJO related, then expect the southeast ridge/WAR signal to mute on the GEFS and for the OP runs to back off the cutterish look in the longer ranges. EPS as mentioned in previous post looks like a favorable -EPO/-PNA combo for an active storm track biased colder, with possible further help coming from -NAO/-AO if that signal comes to fruition. Cutters are certainly gone. Now it appears everthing will run south of OV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Cutters are certainly gone. Now it appears everthing will run south of OV.Ensembles still look active with a -EPO/-PNA most of the time and I'll take my chances with that. If it doesn't work out, that's how it goes with weather, but I'd be surprised if we get to the end of February without having at least one decent snow event.The operational models 4-5+ days out are typically prone to big swings, but it seems like the very active Pacific jet/fast flow pattern this season has added more chaos than usual to the modeling, making them less stable and at times unusable in the medium range and beyond. Best advice is patience and hope we score some good snow events.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I know the models are not eye candy right now, but anyone in the southern great lakes is sitting pretty right now pattern wise, going into March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 GFS operational starting to show a touch more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Can't ask for much more in terms of looks for the extended. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Ship sinker on the 12z Euro for next weekend, thing deepens 31 mb in 24 hrs between 168 and 192 to 973 mb over southern Superior. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Sounds about right this winter. Couple taste of winter than a cutter to nuke us only to go back to winter like stuff. Feelings of a miserable spring incoming again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Sounds about right this winter. Couple taste of winter than a cutter to nuke us only to go back to winter like stuff. Feelings of a miserable spring incoming again. Do you even have Spring iyby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 It's tough. Seems we can't shake off a easterly wind until July of late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, UMB WX said: It's tough. Seems we can't shake off a easterly wind until July of late. uh huh! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Anyone even see the 06z run of the FV3 in the Sunday Morning time frame? (yes... I know it has a 0% chance of ever even showing up again, let alone actually happening but it's still some nice eye candy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 3:33 PM, Baum said: yep. looks busy. valid concern here that each track rolls right overhead leaving us on the warm side,dryslot, backwash flurries end. .............................................................................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/14/2019 at 2:56 PM, Nelson said: Can't ask for much more in terms of looks for the extended. Yea if you live in Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 hearing rumblings of a colder period commencing. If it can stay active maybe we can jackpot yet. Either way, has been a busy 30 days...can't remember this many repeated freezing rain events 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 5 hours ago, Baum said: hearing rumblings of a colder period commencing. If it can stay active maybe we can jackpot yet. Either way, has been a busy 30 days...can't remember this many repeated freezing rain events Storm track should perhaps slide SE with cold air pressing. May open opportunities for OV and EC. Out to 8 to 14 days. 11-16 days cold overwhelms pattern if you believe what the GEFS is selling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Looks like the next system to watch after tomorrow night's storm system is a wave next Fri or Sat. The models have been showing something around that time for the past few days. Doesn't look like a big system, but maybe something to track as we go forward if model trends continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:48 PM, Cary67 said: Storm track should perhaps slide SE with cold air pressing. May open opportunities for OV and EC. Out to 8 to 14 days. 11-16 days cold overwhelms pattern if you believe what the GEFS is selling Chicago and S Lakes sure need one good storm to make up for most of MET winter's lameness. (and nothing against those to my west getting a historic run either) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 5 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Chicago and S Lakes sure need one good storm to make up for most of MET winter's lameness. (and nothing against those to my west getting a historic run either) Make that 1 good SNOW storm. My biggest snowstorm this Winter was 6.1", and it was a nice storm. MET winter has actually been quite active (snow, ice, rollercoaster) since mid Jan. The first half of met winter was trainwreck and no snowstorm in the world can make up for that. Im about long steady winters. Getting.a 3 foot snowstorm in march does not erase a brown December. That said....let it snow! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Southern lakes will get snow from a clipper, if it was to happen... Southern stream systems will continue the 1:1 ratio stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 3 hours ago, DAFF said: Southern lakes will get snow from a clipper, if it was to happen... Southern stream systems will continue the 1:1 ratio stuff. Yep. Wash, rinse, repeat. How does anyone who likes winter endure the state of Ohio?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now