Malacka11 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Next Monday still looks like it could be a bit stronger than the average 1-2 inch clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The latest euro has a snow pack-destroying torch from Feb 1-4. For this week we've been discussing how long the temp might remain below zero. We may go from that straight to the opposite extreme. The euro now shows the temp across a large part of our region remaining above to well-above freezing for four days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 22 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: The latest euro has a snow pack-destroying torch from Feb 1-4. For this week we've been discussing how long the temp might remain below zero. We may go from that straight to the opposite extreme. The euro now shows the temp across a large part of our region remaining above to well-above freezing for four days. probably bring a cutter with it, and than back to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I have 53 in my forecast Sunday and 58 for Monday. It’s going to feel unreal to go from -40 WC to springlike weather in 5 days. Nice 100 degree temp spread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, Chambana said: I have 53 in my forecast Sunday and 58 for Monday. It’s going to feel unreal to go from -40 WC to springlike weather in 5 days. Nice 100 degree temp spread. Im going to say someone hits 70-75 next week in the midwest. Not sure how far northeast that warmth can get but I expect a few places in Ohio to get in the low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Wouldn't be surprised to see this big warm up be cut off quickly, and end up as a brief period of Fog,Drizzle and Freezing drizzle before the next storm brings back decent cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Could be a little interesting after the big cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Could be a little interesting after the big cutter. Been noticing the same thing. I'll tell you this, things remain this active into spring look the F out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Still a ways out but the setup next week looks favorable for sig ice somewhere. If the trough stays positive tilt with multiple waves running along, then could get repeated rounds either in the same area or more spread around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 I don't think winter is over yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Available 12z runs still have the storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 5 hours ago, Baum said: I don't think winter is over yet. Really going out on a limb with that..... Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Really going out on a limb with that..... Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Really going out on a limb with that..... Lol Ha ha, you would think so...but our winter climo is horrible, meaning that we are left to actually be appreciative when it actually feels like winter during DJF. Even though we have had a decent 2 week stretch in the second half of January, winter is supposed to be 13 weeks, not 2. The first 7 weeks of met winter were a disaster, and now we have to deal with a huge thaw when it took so much to go right in order to get our winter landscape to where it is today. Such is life here...just a fact, not complaining about anything. It makes one appreciate any winter-like pattern here when it does occur. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Word has it that the EPS has a pretty strong -EPO in the long range. If so, it could be a decent pattern in the Midwest. Just need to get through this disaster over the next few days. 3 weeks of decent winter weather gets completely wiped out in 2 days...unfortunately it’s par for the course in our horrible climo south of 45N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Do you recall that even in Jan 2014 after the Jan 5-7 cold shot, a few days later we had 5 consecutive 40s? One of those things easy to forget about that epic winter. Hopefully the upcoming pattern delivers and we rebuild what we're losing through Monday. It's a good look on the European ensemble mean in the medium and long range. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 23 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: No, it doesn't. It has a -epo in the medium range and fades out in the long range. The problem is the RNA. The EPS isn't fading the -EPO in the long range, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I think there's plenty of reason for optimism over the upcoming 2-3 weeks. The GFS and ECM suites have drastically different evolutions with the MJO, which causes large differences in their medium-long range patterns... The EPS takes the MJO into phase 8 quicker, while the GFS loops it through phase 6 and 7 at a high amplitude before eventually translating it east later in the run. This results in the EPS being colder overall through the run. Both suites pop a -EPO in the 6-10 and try lowering the NAO, while the GEFS becomes more zonal in the 11-15. Both would support a sharp gradient across the Midwest with snow opportunities, though the EPS would open the door farther south earlier. May be a situation where a strong storm cuts some (though IA, Chicago, Detroit would still probably see snow even with a stronger storm) while a weaker wave favors farther south, given the -PNA and meager looking -NAO at the moment on the smoothed ensemble means. A higher PNA or stronger -NAO would act to shift even the stronger storms farther south. I don't think the GEFS evolution of the MJO is right, and it still suggests snow potential, but it will be interesting to watch. A prolonged -EPO was a big feature in the 13-14 and 14-15 winters even with a neutral to positive NAO...and if we see it again, there certainly will be more cold/snow given how active the pattern remains. Regardless of the MJO, both suites show higher than normal pressure over eastern Asia, which is a positive East Asian Mountain Torque and would favor an extended Pacific jet and Aleutian low, which gives some confidence in the EPO being largely negative for the foreseeable future. The PNA might come down to MJO evolution more, while the NAO remains a crapshoot this winter. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 All I want is to keep the PNA somewhat negative, if it goes positive the east coast cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Word has it that the EPS has a pretty strong -EPO in the long range. If so, it could be a decent pattern in the Midwest. Just need to get through this disaster over the next few days. 3 weeks of decent winter weather gets completely wiped out in 2 days...unfortunately it’s par for the course in our horrible climo south of 45N. Yup. I hate living this far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I would take last Winter in a heartbeat after this rollercoaster we've been on this year. I mean last winter had a roller coaster to some extent, but solid Winter by far dominated. This entire Winter has been unpredictable until almost short range time. And what a wild one. From a November where it was cold and snowed seemingly every day, to pure hell from December through mid January with only a few dustings of snow, to deep Winter for the 2nd half of January including a record shattering cold blast which occurred during the coldest part of Winter, now a huge thaw. What is next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I would take last Winter in a heartbeat after this rollercoaster we've been on this year. I mean last winter had a roller coaster to some extent, but solid Winter by far dominated. This entire Winter has been unpredictable until almost short range time. And what a wild one. From a November where it was cold and snowed seemingly every day, to pure hell from December through mid January with only a few dustings of snow, to deep Winter for the 2nd half of January including a record shattering cold blast which occurred during the coldest part of Winter, now a huge thaw. What is next? Wash, rinse, repeat perhaps?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Going to have quite the run of baroclinic battles in the extended if the FV3 or even the GFS come to fruition here in the Midwest. Feb. is a short month so I definitely start thinking about spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Who would have thought we would flip to a RNA pattern in the afterglow of the ssw? It took a late starting winter, which turned very promising and made it much more questionable, especially in the OV. It all depends where the baroclinic zone lies. Remember though 2008 had a March snowstorm down there so there is still a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 The talk about enjoying the current thaw is better off somewhere else. It was moved to banter. As far as the upcoming pattern, it looks like a more moderate brand of cold than what happened recently (almost has to be lol). 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I'll tell you what, that system on Thursday would be a major severe wx/tornado outbreak in late March/April for the region should that type of setup come back around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I'll tell you what, that system on Thursday would be a major severe wx/tornado outbreak in late March/April for the region should that type of setup come back around.Too early to start a spring discussion about how the most recent Euro weeklies are showing western troughing and eastern ridging in mid to late March?Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 The extended look of the se ridge out east and the cold to the west, with the eastern lakes on the eastern fringe of the cold anamolies, would perhaps imply fun times for winter storms in the Lakes and OV? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Too early to start a spring discussion about how the most recent Euro weeklies are showing western troughing and eastern ridging in mid to late March? Normally I'd say yes with it being only ~3 weeks to met spring, but the weeklies have also been performing horribly all winter lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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