buckeye Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just seeing it on a map is crazy....but fv3 has 2m temps hitting -30 in Ohio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, buckeye said: Just seeing it on a map is crazy....but fv3 has 2m temps hitting -30 in Ohio. Definitely some crazy weather coming our way! Hopefully some of our sub sees a decent storm soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 46 minutes ago, buckeye said: Just seeing it on a map is crazy....but fv3 has 2m temps hitting -30 in Ohio. Pretty amazing turnaround on the models. Remember how JB was despairing last week? Looks like he may be right this year after all. I do know that Toronto experienced its coldest October/November period since 1980 this past Fall. Essentially it was December and early January that were warm. I think we may have already had our January thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Me too. It really stung to miss this event, even though I expected to miss it all along. In no way am I implying that every event must hit here lol, I think it's because we were stuck in such a mild benign weather pattern since the beginning of December, it seemed unfair that areas to the South would score as soon as the pattern turned colder while here in Southern Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc we are high dry and bare ground. Those areas were definitely more due than us from recent years, but the start to this Winter after a nice November has been brutal. That said I am really loving the storm signals for next weekend. The consistency on the models has been something. I can't recall if models still lose things on day 5 and then bring them back, guess we will find out later today and tomorrow lol but to be honest I'm more worried about missing to the South than having too much warm air pumped up with this one. Some of the scenarios with this one would be quite a Winter storm. Huge temperature drop during the storm. What intrigues me is how this is looking to be a cold storm. Some models are predicting highs in the low single digits for Toronto while it is snowing. It kind of reminds me of what happened around January 20, 2005. I believe there was a cold storm around that time too. I love these set-ups as it means I can say to people, "see, it can snow when it'[s cold". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, buckeye said: Just seeing it on a map is crazy....but fv3 has 2m temps hitting -30 in Ohio. Because seeing is believing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: Because seeing is believing...... Sweet jebus, my coffee mug frosted over just looking at that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: What intrigues me is how this is looking to be a cold storm. Some models are predicting highs in the low single digits for Toronto while it is snowing. It kind of reminds me of what happened around January 20, 2005. I believe there was a cold storm around that time too. I love these set-ups as it means I can say to people, "see, it can snow when it'[s cold". I agree. Is there any snow on the ground in Toronto? Temperatures here were in the upper single digits and lower teens during the February 13th 2007 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Sweet jebus, my coffee mug frosted over just looking at that. That would set records in all 48 states I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 40 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: Because seeing is believing...... While I doubt these extreme numbers come to fruition, it's not like it's just one rogue run. The FV3 has been hellbent on outrageous cold in the long range. Lol if that Matt panned out it would probably be clear and -30ﾟin Columbus and we would be getting Lake effect pixie dust showers here with temperatures around -8ﾟ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 8 hours ago, Stebo said: I definitely pray to god that the FV3 doesn't verify beyond day 8. That is some of the coldest air I have ever seen for this area. That model would bring the biggest lake snow event I’ve seen here. Please verify! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Even the ICON stopped suppressing the storm. Good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Even the ICON stopped suppressing the storm. Good. ICON's not the "go-to" model of choice if you ask me. Wouldn't worry me if it was out on it's own away from the pack. Hopefully this clocks us both pretty goodly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: While I doubt these extreme numbers come to fruition, it's not like it's just one rogue run. The FV3 has been hellbent on outrageous cold in the long range. Lol if that Matt panned out it would probably be clear and -30ﾟin Columbus and we would be getting Lake effect pixie dust showers here with temperatures around -8ﾟ Thus see Bastardi's compare with Jan '82 cold waves and that's the exact wx I remember in Genesee Cnty to confirm your call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 12z GFS direct hit for N IL..nice lake enhancement then true LE later too for IL/IND border with 850mb temps crashing to -20 bad news: its the GFS so nothing will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 12z GFS direct hit for N IL..nice lake enhancement then true LE later too for IL/IND border with 850mb temps crashing to -20 bad news: its the GFS so nothing will happen the CMC shows a very similar solution, slightly stronger/north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 12z GFS direct hit for N IL..nice lake enhancement then true LE later too for IL/IND border with 850mb temps crashing to -20 bad news: its the GFS so nothing will happen GEM as well 1 day later 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Sweet jebus, my coffee mug frosted over just looking at that. Yea and there's nothing fun about that. I experienced -22 back during the Jan '94(or '95 can't recall which), super arctic outbreak. It was interesting for a day just to experience, but that's about it. I lived in a condo complex at the time and no one could go to work because their cars wouldn't start. Also, once you get down to temps that extreme, the misery index sky rockets for most people due to things like pipes freezing, car issues, heating concerns, and quite simply life-threatening cold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, buckeye said: Yea and there's nothing fun about that. I experienced -22 back during the Jan '94(or '95 can't recall which), super arctic outbreak. It was interesting for a day just to experience, but that's about it. I lived in a condo complex at the time and no one could go to work because their cars wouldn't start. Also, once you get down to temps that extreme, the misery index sky rockets for most people due to things like pipes freezing, car issues, heating concerns, and quite simply life-threatening cold. You're thinking of 1994, not 95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 these storms will add to the snowpack over time increasing the snow water equivalent.., even mixed precip will get soaked in. and colder weather means its going to stick around and add up..we are at midwinter and warmer march isn't that far away although there is a lack of deep snowpack over the upper midwest attm..not the case in MO/IL area last year was very wet ..and soil moisture and rivers are already high, if not in flood a wet spring could be trouble a wildcard to keep an eye on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: While I doubt these extreme numbers come to fruition, it's not like it's just one rogue run. The FV3 has been hellbent on outrageous cold in the long range. Lol if that Matt panned out it would probably be clear and -30ﾟin Columbus and we would be getting Lake effect pixie dust showers here with temperatures around -8ﾟ That looks a bit like what I've read about the January 1982 outbreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Yea and there's nothing fun about that. I experienced -22 back during the Jan '94(or '95 can't recall which), super arctic outbreak. It was interesting for a day just to experience, but that's about it. I lived in a condo complex at the time and no one could go to work because their cars wouldn't start. Also, once you get down to temps that extreme, the misery index sky rockets for most people due to things like pipes freezing, car issues, heating concerns, and quite simply life-threatening cold. We got into the -30's here for that one and the -20's sometime in the late 90's iirc. I hope that we don't approach that again. Minus single digits is plenty cold enough.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I agree. Is there any snow on the ground in Toronto? Temperatures here were in the upper single digits and lower teens during the February 13th 2007 storm. No snow on the ground in Toronto at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 The 12z FV3 is about as good as it gets... a series of snow events and reinforcing cold through the end of the run. That would make a lot of us forget about the first half of winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Euro has minus upper teens across IN and W. OH following the storm next weekend. Chances for a brutal cold, (possibly record cold), period, is starting to get real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 12z FV3 is about as good as it gets... a series of snow events and reinforcing cold through the end of the run. That would make a lot of us forget about the first half of winter. And the new FV3 certainly outperformed the GFS in this current storm we just experienced. That and the European will hold my interest this coming week. At least there will be active weather to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Latest GFS still has the track but came in w/ less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 hours ago, buckeye said: Yea and there's nothing fun about that. I experienced -22 back during the Jan '94(or '95 can't recall which), super arctic outbreak. It was interesting for a day just to experience, but that's about it. I lived in a condo complex at the time and no one could go to work because their cars wouldn't start. Also, once you get down to temps that extreme, the misery index sky rockets for most people due to things like pipes freezing, car issues, heating concerns, and quite simply life-threatening cold. It was '94. First real cold i can remember as a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, Frog Town said: It was '94. First real cold i can remember as a kid. That stuff the FV3 was showing would have rivaled 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, Stebo said: That stuff the FV3 was showing would have rivaled 94. Yup, by around 10 degrees! There was an infamous Arctic outbreak for the great Lakes and OV many many years ago in which some lows reached -40 in some,of the valleys in southeast Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just checked, Arctic outbreak of 1884. Widespread. -30s. Through indiana too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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