Hoosier Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 00z GFS isn't out far enough yet to show the late week storm, but man, it looks like it might light a nuke. Lots of energy/amplification aloft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Storm maxes out earlier, snowier run overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Storm maxes out earlier, snowier run overall. Gif created by Thundersnow12Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Pretty impressive looking system. Could be a nice hit for the snow-starved Indiana/Ohio peeps if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 New Euro rolling in is also pretty impressive, but looks to be predominantly a rain maker. Thermos don't look like they're too far off from more of a snow scenario though, so it's still a pretty sweet run. Should be an interesting next few days as the guidance starts to narrow in on this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro rolling in is also pretty impressive, but looks to be predominantly a rain maker. Thermos don't look like they're too far off from more of a snow scenario though, so it's still a pretty sweet run. Should be an interesting next few days as the guidance starts to narrow in on this system. The anomalies on the trough/closed low in the deep South are pretty impressive. I'm almost wondering if there's so much energy diving south/east if the surface low tries to make a move toward I-95/east coast. Not saying it happens but just one of the things that could go wrong besides the problematic thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Consistent theme that's been showing up in this upcoming stretch starting late in the week through the end of the month is it being active. Will certainly be playing with fire and storm track driven with lack of entrenched cold airmass but there looks to be sufficiently cold air masses lurking to tap into. Could see parts of the sub taking a big chunk out or even removing the December snowfall departures if things break right. Latitude will likely help given the southeast ridging tendency. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 12z GFS and FV3 GFS are looking very stormy a week or so out. Things are definitely looking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 12z GFS and FV3 GFS are looking very stormy a week or so out. Things are definitely looking up. 16.0z GFS was a nice snow improvement, then 16.12z goes warm and makes a bunch of rainers for most of us LAT 40N and below. Was so hoping that the 0z run was the beginning of improved cold air injection into the Friday cyclone. A huge "sigh" at our December luck lately. Aside from '83, '00, and perhaps '09 I can't remember too many solidly cold-n-snowy Dec's for the Lwr Lakes. Seems it's a very rare commodity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 38 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: 16.0z GFS was a nice snow improvement, then 16.12z goes warm and makes a bunch of rainers for most of us LAT 40N and below. Was so hoping that the 0z run was the beginning of improved cold air injection into the Friday cyclone. A huge "sigh" at our December luck lately. Aside from '83, '00, and perhaps '09 I can't remember too many solidly cold-n-snowy Dec's for the Lwr Lakes. Seems it's a very rare commodity what about Dec 2017? It was the 5th snowiest December on record at Detroit. And even 2016 was snowy. I was fearing a crummy December because of how snowy the last 2 where, although I wasn't feeling it to be this bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Consistent theme that's been showing up in this upcoming stretch starting late in the week through the end of the month is it being active. Will certainly be playing with fire and storm track driven with lack of entrenched cold airmass but there looks to be sufficiently cold air masses lurking to tap into. Could see parts of the sub taking a big chunk out or even removing the December snowfall departures if things break right. Latitude will likely help given the southeast ridging tendency. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk This SSWE cold that everyone seems to be expecting to hit starting around mid January is still a month away. It would be wonderful if we can spend the next several weeks in an active though not cold pattern getting some snows that spread the wealth throughout the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 45 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 12z GFS and FV3 GFS are looking very stormy a week or so out. Things are definitely looking up. This is the time of year I really get excited about getting some good snow....I hate green Christmas's. I always look for patterns or trends to set in at the beginning of the season and one of the disturbing ones I've noticed is that storms seem to be warmer as they get closer in time. We've had several decent looking LR snow events for the sub in which the snow sector begins to get smaller and the rain becomes more dominant as the timeframe shortens....(this weekend for instance), and now next weekend as well. Hopefully this won't be a repeating theme. Last couple of years the theme was strong storms in the long range turning into to weak sauce in the short range. On another note I'm dubious about all of this SSWE talk. I keep wondering why, if all the ingredients were already there for the winter forecasts to showcase a cold/snowy JFM, than why is everyone riding the SSWE like it's going to be a winter savior?..... I thought the winter was already saved by enso, indices, and analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Blizzard in the long range? Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 From like midweek onwards through 384, I don't think there's a single day that some GEFS member doesn't have a snowstorm somewhere... It's soul-crushing to imagine how many of these potential even will never come close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 I mentioned this last night but this trough for the late week storm is pretty bonkers. Here are a couple maps from the GFS. The first one shows 500 mb height anomalies. As you can see, the scale is maxed out in Alabama. The second map shows 500 mb normalized height anomalies, which basically gives an idea of how far out of the norm something is (anomaly ÷ standard deviation). Again quite impressive. The takeaway is that it's pretty unusual to see such low 500 mb heights that far south. Whether this translates into something good for our region is another matter, but kinda cool if you appreciate the meteorology. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 What's the cumulative probability on something 4 standard deviations away? Has to be well below a percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Soul crushing. We just came off weeks of below normal temps and days of flakes flying around. Now we'll watch a 989 low slowly travel from central WV to 983 over CLE and nothing but rain followed by a few backend flakes. This is why I root on torches in winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, nwohweather said: What's the cumulative probability on something 4 standard deviations away? Has to be well below a percent Absolutely is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 18 minutes ago, buckeye said: Soul crushing. We just came off weeks of below normal temps and days of flakes flying around. Now we'll watch a 989 low slowly travel from central WV to 983 over CLE and nothing but rain followed by a few backend flakes. This is why I root on torches in winter. Amazing how cruel the winter witch can be to Ohio...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 hour ago, hlcater said: Absolutely is Yeah I deal with a lot of Lean and Six Sigma in the auto industry and a -4 is pretty significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Forgot who, but someone mentioned earlier that one worrisome trend of the year is for storms to start out at least as a mix and then gradually morph into all rain... ...the GFS shows literally like no snow now with the late week system. Even twelve hours ago, there was at least something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 17, 2018 Author Share Posted December 17, 2018 2 hours ago, buckeye said: Soul crushing. We just came off weeks of below normal temps and days of flakes flying around. Now we'll watch a 989 low slowly travel from central WV to 983 over CLE and nothing but rain followed by a few backend flakes. This is why I root on torches in winter. Yeah pretty disgusting especially when you consider there's already been a blizzard to our west and a major snowstorm to our south. Get a storm with the perfect track and now there's no cold around? Just seems so wrong on so many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Forgot who, but someone mentioned earlier that one worrisome trend of the year is for storms to start out at least as a mix and then gradually morph into all rain... ...the GFS shows literally like no snow now with the late week system. Even twelve hours ago, there was at least something. Will take a while to refine the details. Wouldn't take much colder air to result in more snow on the back side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Just when I thought the gfs had bottomed out and couldn't get any worse.... The 6z came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 The next system to produce snow will be a quick to model, verify scenario. Much like the first of the season snows of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 hour ago, buckeye said: Just when I thought the gfs had bottomed out and couldn't get any worse.... The 6z came out. Man you sure are not kidding, what a dumpster fire run that was, might not even have a white X-Mas for my area which is pretty much unheard off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 5 hours ago, buckeye said: Just when I thought the gfs had bottomed out and couldn't get any worse.... The 6z came out. Seems like a pretty nice track of that surface low for you guys with the Thu-Fri system, but the thermos are unfortunately not cooperating. The new 12z tries to change over on the back side at the tail-end of the event unlike the 06z. If there were more cold air available for this system it would have been a huge hit from Kentucky through Ohio, and up into Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Seems like a pretty nice track of that surface low for you guys with the Thu-Fri system, but the thermos are unfortunately not cooperating. The new 12z tries to change over on the back side at the tail-end of the event unlike the 06z. If there were more cold air available for this system it would have been a huge hit from Kentucky through Ohio, and up into Ontario. Digging into the thermal profiles, it seems that the problem is less at 850 mb than from about 925 mb to the surface. Granted we just don't have much cold air to work with, but there's a zone where 850's drop below 0C while 925 mb to the surface is above freezing, so the models are showing rain. The models could be right and the low level warmth is simply too much to overcome for much of a changeover, but imo that is more of a "fixable" issue than having to get below 0C 850 mb temps to materialize out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Interesting 96hr on the 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 5 hours ago, josh_4184 said: Man you sure are not kidding, what a dumpster fire run that was, might not even have a white X-Mas for my area which is pretty much unheard off. That torch on the 28th will wipe out everything but the deepest snow in the UP. Newberry will have grass on Jan 1st. Worst snowmobile season ever. I'm already looking into flying out to Colorado and renting mountain sleds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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