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Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest


PrinceFrederickWx
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7 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

This was as of midnight, and will likely have additional snowfall.

@MN Transplant is barely ahead- just a bit more at IAD will put @RodneyS in #1, while a bit more at DCA may keep MN in the lead for now.

@WEATHER53 is up to 3rd now.

Top Ten.JPG

I don't see my name on the leader board. What's up with that? :whistle:

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2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It’s interesting to me that @MN Transplant and @RodneyS - -the two biggest stat guys in the extreme run thread- are currently winning this. Was there anything leading into this winter that gave you both pause?

Well, winning with ~a month of potential winter still to go isn't that impressive.  The leaderboard will look different by Wednesday evening, I'd guess.  With so many people going high, it seemed that the safer bet was closer to climo.  So, I was playing the board as much as playing the game.

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10 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Well, winning with ~a month of potential winter still to go isn't that impressive.  The leaderboard will look different by Wednesday evening, I'd guess.  With so many people going high, it seemed that the safer bet was closer to climo.  So, I was playing the board as much as playing the game.

 

13 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It’s interesting to me that @MN Transplant and @RodneyS - -the two biggest stat guys in the extreme run thread- are currently winning this. Was there anything leading into this winter that gave you both pause?

In my case, you're correct -- my snow forecasts were based significantly on historical averages for weak El Nino winters.  

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Here's the totals I have:

BWI: 15.6"

DCA: 16.6"

IAD: 24.9"

RIC: 13.1"

Top ten list is attached (those who have been mathematically eliminated are grayed out).  Look at that top three now- @Stormpc is in the lead, with Rodney and Olaf just 0.1" and 0.4" behind- close game!

Myself, nw baltimore wx and Bob Chill have now entered the top ten.

top ten.JPG

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Here's the totals I have:

BWI: 15.6"

DCA: 16.6"

IAD: 24.9"

RIC: 13.1"

Top ten list is attached (those who have been mathematically eliminated are grayed out).  Look at that top three now- @Stormpc is in the lead, with Rodney and Olaf just 0.1" and 0.4" behind- close game!

Myself, nw baltimore wx and Bob Chill have now entered the top ten.

top ten.JPG

I think the odds are better than 50-50 that either Stormpc, olafminesaw, or Bob Chill wins. I'm in the sad position of "so near, and yet so far."

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25 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

I think the odds are better than 50-50 that either Stormpc, olafminesaw, or Bob Chill wins. I'm in the sad position of "so near, and yet so far."

You would need at least 4.5" at BWI to win outright (4.6" if you assume DCA gets snow at the same time). You actually have a bit of a cushion at IAD since most of the leaderboard has busted on it. The key for you is making sure RIC gets shut out in the process. You have an outside chance, but it's definitely not impossible.

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6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@nj2va

Tried to get this all in one screenshot- RIC Airport is a little cut off at the bottom but he's the last place one.

If you click on the picture, it should pop up bigger on your screen to read better (at least it does for me)

 

full listing.JPG

Well I see why osfan24 is upset with this winter now

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7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@nj2va

Tried to get this all in one screenshot- RIC Airport is a little cut off at the bottom but he's the last place one.

If you click on the picture, it should pop up bigger on your screen to read better (at least it does for me)

Thanks!  I forgot how high I went with my predictions...the 2 BECS we get in March will get me close to the top.

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

You would need at least 4.5" at BWI to win outright (4.6" if you assume DCA gets snow at the same time). You actually have a bit of a cushion at IAD since most of the leaderboard has busted on it. The key for you is making sure RIC gets shut out in the process. You have an outside chance, but it's definitely not impossible.

I believe I could theoretically win with 4.4" at BWI, assuming DCA gets shut out and RIC gets no more than 0.2".  However, if BWI gets 4.4" or more, isn't it very likely that IAD will get at least 3.6"?  And if that happens, Bob Chill will close me out. So I have to thread the needle in a very unlikely manner.  As our President might tweet: SAD! 

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26 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@nj2va

Tried to get this all in one screenshot- RIC Airport is a little cut off at the bottom but he's the last place one.

If you click on the picture, it should pop up bigger on your screen to read better (at least it does for me)

 

full listing.JPG

Awesome!!! I am perfectly positioned for the KU we get in a little under a week and a half. You all won't know what hit you. 

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