November Banter

[Sparky]

52 minutes ago, mappy said:

mmm yeah, drawing a blank on that one. we were in odenton, i hadn't joined eastern yet, and was in final wedding prep mode. 

I recorded 7 inches and it snowed from 9am to 7pm with a little sleet at the very beginning with falling temps during the day.   I have noticed that you and I often get similar amounts in many storms so Parkton probably got around 7".

[mappy]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was a nice little event up here to start off that epic season.  I am not sure exactly what you had but most of the reports around you were about 5".  I had 6 here.  It had some similarities, marginal temps, but the track was further offshore so less mid level southerly flow to deal with, snowfall actually tailed off some NW of me.  It was a significantly weaker system overall also.  If this was December 5th we probably would be looking at a significant snowfall here.  Even if the track is slightly inside idea right now even that would adjust if it was December and there was a slightly colder boundary.  That would probably shift the track a bit east also towards the temperature boundary along the coast.  But I am of the mind that this is a good sign... the fact that every time we get any kind of trough we pop multiple coastal systems bodes well as climo becomes more favorable soon. 

 

Just now, Sparky said:

I recorded 7 inches and it snowed from 9am to 7pm with a little sleet at the very beginning with falling temps during the day.   I have noticed that you and I often get similar amounts in many storms so Parkton probably got around 7".

thanks guys -- i am honestly drawing a mental blank on that storm. we were in the final push for our wedding (that storm i def remember!) so its probably wasn't all that great in Odenton, where we were living at the time. 

[Jandurin]

Every storm was too much 2009-2010, the year I bought a house.

Next time I'm getting a shorter driveway.

[aldie 22]

GFS kinda dropped an until on us I think

[ErinInTheSky]

This is only my 3rd winter here. I have a question... I notice in the past two winters, there have been several big events that would disappear in the last 2-3 days of the model forecast, or significantly lower in total. Are there ever any non-events that blow up within 48 hours of lead time?

[Jandurin]

I think the only way that could happen is if the temps were wildly overestimated by all models and forecasters.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

This is only my 3rd winter here. I have a question... I notice in the past two winters, there have been several big events that would disappear in the last 2-3 days of the model forecast, or significantly lower in total. Are there ever any non-events that blow up within 48 hours of lead time?

There were a few storms that didn't look like much from more then 72 hours out but turned into very solid or even warning criteria events in 2013-14.  When did that nice little advisory event last December show up?  I can't remember if that was really on the radar from 4-5 days out.  Other events I can remember where some part of our area did well and I don't think it was a particularly long lead event would be the Snow to ice event in Feb 2015.  From 3+ days out that looked like mostly ice to rain and became a 4-8" snowstorm for most of the area, even more for some.  There was a storm in February of 2007 that looked like rain from 48 hours out and turned into 3-6" of wet snow.  It can happen but its definitely more rare then the snowstorm that goes poof on us inside 72 hours. 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There were a few storms that didn't look like much from more then 72 hours out but turned into very solid or even warning criteria events in 2013-14.  When did that nice little advisory event last December show up?  I can't remember if that was really on the radar from 4-5 days out.  Other events I can remember where some part of our area did well and I don't think it was a particularly long lead event would be the Snow to ice event in Feb 2015.  From 3+ days out that looked like mostly ice to rain and became a 4-8" snowstorm for most of the area, even more for some.  There was a storm in February of 2007 that looked like rain from 48 hours out and turned into 3-6" of wet snow.  It can happen but its definitely more rare then the snowstorm that goes poof on us inside 72 hours. 

Expecting rain and getting 3-6" of wet snow would be freaking awesome.

[wxdude64]

15 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

This is only my 3rd winter here. I have a question... I notice in the past two winters, there have been several big events that would disappear in the last 2-3 days of the model forecast, or significantly lower in total. Are there ever any non-events that blow up within 48 hours of lead time?

And now we can 'officially' welcome you to the MA.........you're mind re-set has been completed.

[yoda]

Wasnt snowmageddon borderline rain and snow on the models for the few days leading up to it?

[Jandurin]

Yes.

But I wouldn't call that a non-event. Just an event that wasn't properly respected.

I wasn't even here and I could see something brewing and made wifey leave work early that day.

 

Even the day of the people at the office were like "whatever it'll turn to rain" "it'll melt".

I got out.

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, yoda said:

lulz... even 1/4 of this would be acceptable

OK I know its preseason and were having fun but those FV3 maps are just... I mean all the snow maps are clowns but that's like if you got the retarded clown drunk, spun him around 20 times until he threw up, then had him roll around in the puke as he passed out and called it a snow map. 

[Interstate]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There were a few storms that didn't look like much from more then 72 hours out but turned into very solid or even warning criteria events in 2013-14.  When did that nice little advisory event last December show up?  I can't remember if that was really on the radar from 4-5 days out.  Other events I can remember where some part of our area did well and I don't think it was a particularly long lead event would be the Snow to ice event in Feb 2015.  From 3+ days out that looked like mostly ice to rain and became a 4-8" snowstorm for most of the area, even more for some.  There was a storm in February of 2007 that looked like rain from 48 hours out and turned into 3-6" of wet snow.  It can happen but its definitely more rare then the snowstorm that goes poof on us inside 72 hours. 

Dec 8th 2013 is another example of a good storm. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Dec 8th 2013 is another example of a good storm. 

i think i got just over 7" from that, without a winter storm warning. 

[Jandurin]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/08/snow-covering-region-heavy-north-ice-later-live-updates/?utm_term=.70c1b73874c1

neat

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OK I know its preseason and were having fun but those FV3 maps are just... I mean all the snow maps are clowns but that's like if you got the retarded clown drunk, spun him around 20 times until he threw up, then had him roll around in the puke as he passed out and called it a snow map. 

ha, yes. but perhaps without the "retarded" part. 

[ErinInTheSky]

5 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

And now we can 'officially' welcome you to the MA.........you're mind re-set has been completed.

I think my real welcome came when I put down low snow totals in the "guess this year's snow totals" instead of high ones, even with all of the positives this winter has going for it.

[Interstate]

Just now, mappy said:

i think i got just over 7" from that, without a winter storm warning. 

I was heading to the hospital to see my son who was born on Dec 5th (11 weeks early)... and Dulaney Valley Road was a nightmare.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

ha, yes. but perhaps without the "retarded" part. 

I don't get to tell you what is offensive to you... that is for each to assess themselves...and I would never call a person retarded or make fun of someone who was, but for me personally if its obviously a joke and its not directed at a real person in any way, then its not the same.  When it comes to humor I am not PC and kind of like the edgy boundary pushing stuff myself.   But again that is just me, and I don't mean to offend so I will keep that in mind next time. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 I don't mean to offend so I will keep that in mind next time. 

perfect, thanks. 

[birdsofprey02]

I'm impressed that the thread regarding tomorrow's event is 21 pages long and I haven't seen a mentioning about sun angle yet (unless I missed it). 

[Jandurin]

It's mid November, not mid March

[Interstate]

19 minutes ago, birdsofprey02 said:

I'm impressed that the thread regarding tomorrow's event is 21 pages long and I haven't seen a mentioning about sun angle yet (unless I missed it). 

There was one... it had it in parentheses

[Stormpc]

Quite a canopy of leaves still on the trees in the western burbs. I was out in Hamilton and Leesburg and Purcellville  earlier and there's an awful lot of leaves still on the trees. May have some tree issues if we get the quick thump.

[Interstate]

LWX is slow compared to the other offices.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Whatever, I'm makig money on gasoline. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My job may very well take care of that lol

If the 00z suite comes in nice it’ll be game on in my mind. 

It won’t take much for a mess in DC.

One of these times your back in the area we should have a few drinks. 

[CAPE]

Drinking a Ten Fidy Imperial Stout.

Super good.

eta- new edition is not 10.5% abv, its 12.9%

[mappy]

My kid finds the most ridiculous things to meltdown over. A clip from one of her book bag straps broke and you’d think it’s the end of the god damn world.

 

My god...I’ve turned into my mother

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

My kid finds the most ridiculous things to meltdown over. A clip from one of her book bag straps broke and you’d think it’s the end of the god damn world.

 

My god...I’ve turned into my mother

If only mapkid had the maturity we do, when we only have meltdowns about frozen water.