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November discussion


weathafella
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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's some huge Scandinavian ridging on the EPS in the medium/long range (D7 and beyond)....that could be a good sign for late this month or even early December. Years that had huge ridging there in November were years like 1959, 1968, 1997, 2009, 2002, 2003, 2000, 1993, and 2014.

Obviously there's some caution to be taken from that...2014 never produced a big December, but it did have the very cold period late month with the pre-Thanksgiving snowstorm and 1997 was nothing special (though early to mid November was quite cold). But there's certainly a plethora of years on there with good early season activity including some El Ninos. So we'll have to see how the month progression goes....if the ridging materializes (and it looks likely), then there's a good chance we may see a good wintry period either late month or in the first couple weeks of December. The literature is pretty strong on the scandinavian ridging poking holes in the +AO firewall.

The only bad season in that mix is the uber el nino of 97-98. I have always felt that season would have been huge given a weaker ENSO.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The only bad season in that mix is the uber el nino of 97-98. I have always felt that season would have been huge given a weaker ENSO.

I agree...because it actually didn't start off that bad. December was pretty much dead normal temps with a huge snow event mixed in and November was a top 10 coldest on record here with a decent snow event. Our worst period of the winter was when we typically expect our best winter wx in El Nino....February.

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1 hour ago, 8611Blizz said:

That's the problem. The zone is too big. The sunset today around Boston is 5:38pm in western Ohio it's 6:34 pm. 

Ya but obviously they get killed in the morning....sunrise here is 7:22, add almost an hour on to that for western Ohio and you're at 8:18 am...that sucks too.  

 

I personally like EST, and SADD does not affect me one bit.  

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23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has the 1st legit shot of cold air from 192 -240 entering the U.S 

Not to be dismissive but ... of more importance to me is not that cold shot. 

That particular range of ..well, any guidance for that matter, is going to be inherently stochastic - meaning... variable, which for our parlance of weather-related model observance, means it prooobably won't be in the next run.. Certainly, details will vary too much to depend on it.. 

But the big stem wound "hemibomb" that carves a black-hole through western Onatario has been strongly hinted in multiple guidance sources going back days only getting more prevalent with each passing run cycle (on average). 

It's not declaration in certitude by any means or intent... but, that's the type of thing I like to look for about now.  Laying down big snows in the midriff latitudes of the Canadian shield...  It's a good thing for winter enthusiasts should there occur an early season E-based -EPO while/if an antecedent snow pack/cryosphere is established underneath the dump zone of the NE cold loading pattern.  

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya but obviously they get killed in the morning....sunrise here is 7:22, add almost an hour on to that for western Ohio and you're at 8:18 am...that sucks too.  

 

I personally like EST, and SADD does not affect me one bit.  

As I get older I grow more attuned to the seasons and look forward to late winter the most and the time around the holidays the least.  The atlantic time zone thing will gain traction as more and more people from other parts of the country move here and realize how early a 4:30 pm sunset really is.

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16 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

As I get older I grow more attuned to the seasons and look forward to late winter the most and the time around the holidays the least.  The atlantic time zone thing will gain traction as more and more people from other parts of the country move here and realize how early a 4:30 pm sunset really is.

Lol.....AST means every kid is standing in the dark in the AM waiting for the bus.  Not gonna happen.  They tried DST in the winter during the mid 70s and for this reason it was a disaster.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Lol.....AST means every kid is standing in the dark in the AM waiting for the bus.  Not gonna happen.  They tried DST in the winter during the mid 70s and for this reason it was a disaster.

Never said anything would happen soon, but I think in 15-20 years it happens. Change around here comes very slowly.

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3 hours ago, 8611Blizz said:

That's the problem. The zone is too big. The sunset today around Boston is 5:38pm in western Ohio it's 6:34 pm. 

Maybe compare EPO to IND.   (Western Indiana time zones are weird, as some counties in the NW and SW corners of the state have elected to join their brethren to the west.) 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The only bad season in that mix is the uber el nino of 97-98. I have always felt that season would have been huge given a weaker ENSO.

Needed to be in the North.  While you were getting 40° RA in early Jan and I was listening to trees crashing down all around, Aroostook from HUL north had a 5-day snowstorm that dropped 18-27" of modest ratio snow (mainly 8-10 to 1) at temps mostly in the teens.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Lol.....AST means every kid is standing in the dark in the AM waiting for the bus.  Not gonna happen.  They tried DST in the winter during the mid 70s and for this reason it was a disaster.

Exactly this...I was in very early elementary school in the mid 70’s...and it was 8:00 am and black as night!!

Being an educator I don’t see that happening here in our lifetimes imo.   Way too dangerous for the kids...especially in this day and age of delicate Snowflakes, that are suit happy to begin with!

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Weak Signal for winter storm sometime in the next two weeks, likely later in the period of time between NOV 12-18th period our first actual SNE snowstorm potential.  It looks like a deep pool of very cold temperatures hits the US within 180 hours and our region thereafter.  Just something to monitor at this point in time, the EURO has a Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay, Canada, and James Bay, the GFS long range forecast has been edging towards a powerful pattern changing storm in this period.

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14 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What outdoor work would you be doing in the middle of a deep winter, besides shoveling?

I wasn't referring to deep winter as much as now. I've got a ton of outdoor projects (lawn planting, brush clearing, burning, raking/leaf blowing, etc.) that I couldn't get done over the past 3 months due to the constant rain/fog, and I'm trying to get as much done as possible before the snow pack establishes. I couldn't seed the back half my lawn either before it got too cold, so it'll have to wait until spring when the black flies are out to greet me.

There's a lot of deadwood in the woods around the yard that needs cutting and burning. I cut down like 8 dead balsam firs and a black cherry last week, and this doesn't include those that were already on the ground. I harvested the cherry for future use, but I burned the balsams since they were partially rotten and they don't burn that well. I'm glad I cut them down because they may have blown down on my driveway or power line with the big east wind we had this past Saturday. There's more to cut too.

At least with DST I get about 2-2.5 hours of daylight before dark after I get home, and that get shrunk in half on Sunday, which means less time to get stuff done.

I'm not sure what's killing my balsams but pealing the dead bark back from the trees reveals lots of horizontal borer paths. There's definitely some type of boring beetle larvae in them and this "chokes" the tree to death much like Emerald Ash Borer does to the ash trees.

 

IMG_0951.JPG

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24 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

I wasn't referring to deep winter as much as now. I've got a ton of outdoor projects (lawn planting, brush clearing, burning, raking/leaf blowing, etc.) that I couldn't get done over the past 3 months due to the constant rain/fog, and I'm trying to get as much done as possible before the snow pack establishes. I couldn't seed the back half my lawn either before it got too cold, so it'll have to wait until spring when the black flies are out to greet me.

There's a lot of deadwood in the woods around the yard that needs cutting and burning. I cut down like 8 dead balsam firs and a black cherry last week, and this doesn't include those that were already on the ground. I harvested the cherry for future use, but I burned the balsams since they were partially rotten and they don't burn that well. I'm glad I cut them down because they may have blown down on my driveway or power line with the big east wind we had this past Saturday. There's more to cut too.

At least with DST I get about 2-2.5 hours of daylight before dark after I get home, and that get shrunk in half on Sunday, which means less time to get stuff done.

I'm not sure what's killing my balsams but pealing the dead bark back from the trees reveals lots of horizontal borer paths. There's definitely some type of boring beetle larvae in them and this "chokes" the tree to death much like Emerald Ash Borer does to the ash trees.

 

IMG_0951.JPG

Do you have a lot of hemlock? Obviously they prefer hemlock, but hemlock borers will target balsams too.

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17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree...because it actually didn't start off that bad. December was pretty much dead normal temps with a huge snow event mixed in and November was a top 10 coldest on record here with a decent snow event. Our worst period of the winter was when we typically expect our best winter wx in El Nino....February.

What do you think next week looks like after the cutter? Much colder pattern?

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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What do you think next week looks like after the cutter? Much colder pattern?

Looks like after today/tomorrow we spike up again during the cutter (mayyyybe mid 60s? Hopefully a little more seasonable) then dive into a traditional November pattern. 

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12 hours ago, dendrite said:

Do you have a lot of hemlock? Obviously they prefer hemlock, but hemlock borers will target balsams too.

Hemlock has a hard time getting above 2,000' in NNE.

Fir has lots of issues, and I think bark beetles are secondary pests on fir, attacking trees already weakened by other factors.  That softwood stand in Mitch's yard looks crowded, with many trees probably with narrow crowns, thus slow growing and vulnerable.  ((Added note:  On white spruce, bark beetles can attack perfectly healthy trees, as is currently happening on the most NW-ly large tract that we manage.) 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What do you think next week looks like after the cutter? Much colder pattern?

It's more like end of next week and next weekend, but yeah, it will def get colder. I'm not sold yet on Arctic cold. It could be more like modestly below average type stuff with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the mid/upper 20s. We'll see if the core of the cold can reach us...we would need it to in order to get highs in the 30s. 

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