weathafella Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 First days AOA. Ensembles say cooling and maybe cold after mid month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Glad you started the thread Jerry....Second half of October has been cold for sure(relative to time of the year), be nice to mild up some for the first few days of November...maybe a lil indian summer to enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Gefs do show some west ridging in the LR. Would be good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 39 minutes ago, weathafella said: First days AOA. Ensembles say cooling and maybe cold after mid month? Conflicting signals mid-month....ensembles seem to be flip-flopping a bit. I think best cold is in Siberia where we want it anyway this time of year, but we could see a bit of a see-saw pattern in the east. Don't think we're going Nov '02 though....even though that would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Heck of a snowstorm, maybe near blizzard, on the euro d 9...for Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 As far as November... Seems more like a "pattern" not committing one way or the other. We may be in wait of hemispheric gradients to steepen up a bit more. Eventually exposing where heat source and sinks are situated ...the resulting/leading to a coherent 'base-line' look. I think what Will says resonates the best, the ensembles are 'flip-flopping,' as perhaps a reflection of models being guided more by noise than by said establishment. Hate to employ a cliche but unfortunately seems apropos ..things can change in a hurry when all that comes into focus... Some point of the several weeks and so on. Until then... about where we should be for this time of year ..give or take. I mean your dailies will never pin-point climate, but all things being equal we seem pretty normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Looks like winter will be starting early this year. Possibly, by around mid November as predicted by the CFS model of the Polar Vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: As far as November... Seems more like a "pattern" not committing one way or the other. We may be in wait of hemispheric gradients to steepen up a bit more. Eventually exposing where heat source and sinks are situated ...the resulting/leading to a coherent 'base-line' look. I think what Will says resonates the best, the ensembles are 'flip-flopping,' as perhaps a reflection of models being guided more by noise than by said establishment. Hate to employ a cliche but unfortunately seems apropos ..things can change in a hurry when all that comes into focus... Some point of the several weeks and so on. Until then... about where we should be for this time of year ..give or take. I mean your dailies will never pin-point climate, but all things being equal we seem pretty normal. It's anecdotal admittedly, but I've found we seem to get a lot of false signals in November on the ensembles and other model guidance. Then things seems to come together a lot more coherently by early December on what type of pattern we are dealing with. We'll see if we get a similar story line this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: It's anecdotal admittedly, but I've found we seem to get a lot of false signals in November on the ensembles and other model guidance. Then things seems to come together a lot more coherently by early December on what type of pattern we are dealing with. We'll see if we get a similar story line this month. Mm... I think that has merit, though. I more than less echoed that sentiment a month ago when the extended models ...particularly the GFS, began the seemingly perennial perfunctory winter start date by October 20th ... In other word, I understand where you are coming from and tend to agree... It's almost like a bigger, hemispheric "rushing a pattern" change in the models... almost at a seasonal thing. interesting.. But yeah, it's more or less what I'm thinking... that a "real" pattern is yet to really formulate - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Lots of cutters on the 6z GFS... probably spikes of temp with them, but it's interesting to see how wet the forecast remains. Hope we don't blow it all early and be left with a barren winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 Everything looks ok to me. Nothing out of the ordinary and most importantly a stormy pattern. Winter comes first to the Midwest? Our turn is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 27 minutes ago, weathafella said: Winter comes first to the Midwest? Just don’t stay there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 4 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: Lots of cutters on the 6z GFS... probably spikes of temp with them, but it's interesting to see how wet the forecast remains. Hope we don't blow it all early and be left with a barren winter. lol. Already throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 16 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm... I think that has merit, though. I more than less echoed that sentiment a month ago when the extended models ...particularly the GFS, began the seemingly perennial perfunctory winter start date by October 20th ... In other word, I understand where you are coming from and tend to agree... It's almost like a bigger, hemispheric "rushing a pattern" change in the models... almost at a seasonal thing. interesting.. But yeah, it's more or less what I'm thinking... that a "real" pattern is yet to really formulate - Yea, its a tough time period for guidance with the wave length flux, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 53 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: lol. Already throwing in the towel. He is expressing a similar concern that a lot of us have had. This onslaught of wet weather will change at some point... hopefully not until Sping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: He is expressing a similar concern that a lot of us have had. This onslaught of wet weather will change at some point... hopefully not until Sping When did it start, August? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: When did it start, August? 2nd week of july, after the early Jul heatwave, for the w sne folks. Hasn’t stopped since. Pushing 40”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 You can call the next 10 days a seasonal transition but it's pretty much just a torch. Gfs shows several days with +10 or better departures for most of the northeast and it's on par with the first half of October warmth. The difference is that it's much stormier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: When did it start, August? Last 3-4 weeks in our hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You can call the next 10 days a seasonal transition but it's pretty much just a torch. Gfs shows several days with +10 or better departures for most of the northeast and it's on par with the first half of October warmth. The difference is that it's much stormier. There’s like 3-4 days of AN. And none of them approach records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You can call the next 10 days a seasonal transition but it's pretty much just a torch. Gfs shows several days with +10 or better departures for most of the northeast and it's on par with the first half of October warmth. The difference is that it's much stormier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 2nd week of july, after the early Jul heatwave, for the w sne folks. Hasn’t stopped since. Pushing 40”. I'd say before that....Late Spring was wet, and it hasn't abated much since...we just got very hot along with the Wetness from the start of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I'd say before that....Late Spring was wet, and it hasn't abated much since...we just got very hot along with the Wetness from the start of July. June featured a lot of coc. Early July was dry but hot. Then the flood gates opened. Regardless, we splitting hairs....it’s been a wet stretch. It will bounce to the other extreme eventually. Hopefully, next spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: June featured a lot of coc. Early July was dry but hot. Then the flood gates opened. Regardless, we splitting hairs....it’s been a wet stretch. It will bounce to the other extreme eventually. Hopefully, next spring. Will must have the 10 wettest summers memorized. I wonder how the following winters were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 So many worried weenies...lol A dry pattern in a positive ENSO year is unusual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Will must have the 10 wettest summers memorized. I wonder how the following winters were? I didn't actually have them all memorized but most of the top 10 are El Niño's, lol. Though Diane in 1955 bucks that trend to make it wettest summer on record. The following winters seem to have no real correlation to snow. Summer precip would be near the bottom of my list on variables to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 My spidey senses are tingling for the Nov 10-13ish period. Should be some chilly air around and if a coastal pops, someone might be in business for a wintery scenario. Long shot and could easily go poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 A double-block ridge bridge on day 10 euro? It's nice to look at anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 5 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: There’s like 3-4 days of AN. And none of them approach records. Highs in the 70s showing up in SNE for those days, very close to record. It's 8-9 days minimum of AN temps, first 10 days will average anywhere from +8 to +10 (or better). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: When did it start, August? Def mid July around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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