OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You guys may want to start a thread so you’re not bothered with sne doom and gloom. Nah, it's all good. Reminds us how lucky we are. #Blessed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah...there was one they threw out the Euro when it was on its own and we got smoked in the end but who hasn't thrown out an outlier before lol. All I know is I want what the 6z Euro is throwing down. It goes nuts with the cyclonic upslope on Wednesday behind the system. Like 9-12 hours of moist NW flow. I generally would not toss it, but that's me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I'm just saying conditions were better than they typically are in late spring that's all. But the end of hunting season makes sense. Out hunting yesterday and a woman is riding her brown horse with a white nose up the tote road that a bunch of hunters are on and one of them asked her shouldn't you have some orange on that horse and she tells them she's not hunting............................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 In our internal discussion for ORD yesterday, I told them to toss the GFS right off the Willis Tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: You area is going to do well no matter the low track outcome. The mountains yes... I think it'll start as rain at home and go to snow once the low passes southeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You guys may want to start a thread so you’re not bothered with sne doom and gloom. Someone should fire up the December thread, We're close enough now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Euro ensembles have trended toward more -NAO in the long range too so that may help even if the PAC goes kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles have trended toward more -NAO in the long range too so that may help even if the PAC goes kind of meh. Yeah that would help. I saw that. Hopefully it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I generally would not toss it, but that's me. It's hard to ever discount the Euro. It has blown some short range events though this month on the cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's hard to ever discount the Euro. It has blown some short range events though this month on the cold side. It did ok here. I think if you ignore the clown maps and look at the raw data..you can guess what to do when it's marginal. Like, I would not give Dendrite 10" of snow when 925 0C is over him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 00z euro was a bit colder and much snowier here. NCEP models say no way. It'll probably cave again. The NAM was interesting at 850 mb in its handling of the thermal layout. Initially there is warm bulge arcing up toward New York State, cutting SE over SNE... As the primary low slams into a hemispheric instructed stall over the southern lakes, the ensuing charts indicate pallid attempt at a secondary. I don't necessarily argue the weakness or strength of the secondary, however, I am noticing that right around hour(s) 36+ the warm bulge abruptly erodes back, hmm... with holes also "punched" through it. That behavior in the kindergarten water color activity hour is indicative what you know (...just pointing it out..), and in the past ...turned out sneaky portentous in hindsight. 1 ... the fragile nature of the warm bulge. It's not deep. And above it, the growth region of the sounding across N PA and NYS to SNE/CNE is likely cold enough - height falls associated with secondary might be in question (underdone) by just that crucial amount. For operational Mets ... that's headache hour. 2 ... hygroscopic cooling in the 850 mb layer (saturation to wet bulb) is ending up right around 0C. Therein is a problem with that entire evolution from ..really the backside of today thru 70 hours. This system today isn't helping like a system escaping traditionally would. It's got very little backside CAA going on... such that the critical sub 700 mb thickness intervals are tepid. It makes the secondary interesting (for me), in that we've seen dynamics in the past do wonders N of NYC latitudes from roughly mid Novie's onward. Climate arguments aside (have to look at each situation uniquely), that 850 mb thermal modulation described above, ..that tells me that radar at the time will be "fuzzy" regardless of what it is doing in the obs. Here's the thing ... in years past I could always count on marginal columns in autumn and spring tend cooler when observing that erode back 850 mb thermal dynamic. That's how you get 'blue bombs,' particularly when impetus to warm above the boundary layer is terminating. The lift at mid levels then QPF into column left naked to the N. At this time range, models (some more so than others...like he GGEM) always tended to cold rain, correcting toward isothermal blue like ... < 30 hours from the event. I don't know about present era modeling though, wrt to that specific study - if they are improved in accuracy for marginal looks that "could" modulate isothermal. The other aspect is that there is a sneaky Maritime rise in surface high pressure, as the isobars subtly bulge backward toward the WSW, N of Maine. That retrograde look is really the -NAO exertion overall. It may not supply 'cold' per se, but... it sort of backs us into wondering if the primary latitude is handled perfectly ... I've also seen primary's as recently as within the last five years of modeling ...correct S when there is -NAO-like train-wreck mechanics in eastern Canada. Euro is notorious for that ... or used to be, probably a vestige of it's "too far SW" olden day bias it used to have. So, ... meh... if this thing ends up correcting (or not) and/or surprises blue ...wouldn't be shocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It did ok here. I think if you ignore the clown maps and look at the raw data..you can guess what to do when it's marginal. Like, I would not give Dendrite 10" of snow when 925 0C is over him. Unfortunately, SV does not have that upper air level so its hard to figure where some issues may be at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Unfortunately, SV does not have that upper air level so its hard to figure where some issues may be at times. Well it's always safe to assume the clown map has issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Unfortunately, SV does not have that upper air level so its hard to figure where some issues may be at times. Check out weather.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Edit: Those phuckers have it blanked out it appears. That's day 2 of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: Well it's always safe to assume the clown map has issues. No doub't, That where being able to see the various levels come into play more then the clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, Your right, They ate some crow on an event, PF would know which one it was. They tossed the euro in the march 7-8 last event which was well SE of the other guidance. They overforecasted the snow up there I remember by hugging the GFS and NAM. It was kind of bizarre as I recall all of us were wondering why they were totally tossing it. Not even really blending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Edit: Those phuckers have it blanked out it appears. That's day 2 of that. Those cheap mofos.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They tossed the euro in the march 7-8 last event which was well SE of the other guidance. They overforecasted the snow up there I remember by hugging the GFS and NAM. It was kind of bizarre as I recall all of us were wondering why they were totally tossing it. Not even really blending. Yeah, You really can never toss it, Maybe weigh it less of it in a blend but that's suicidal just giving it a total heave ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Yes, Gene and Alex as well as the IZG-RUM corridor here, Elevations are going to get smoked, There is no doub't about that, Its how the lower elevations shake out with that SLP track along or off the coast. The 3 posters up here watch intently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Looks like a Wildcat Whalloper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like a Wildcat Whalloper What a pounding for the ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Even on the clown map, You know that corridor will get destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Probably lose the pack up here except in the woods unless it is snowing Monday night. Fog doing its dirty work overnight and this morn. I don't mind the driveway melting out today if possible. It's 1500 feet with a slope down and it is going freezing tonight. Will not be an easy forecast obviously...might be one of those where CON is mostly rain, we are mixed here (exit 17 on 93) and then when you get to exit 9 and north on 89 (in NH), and up Rt 4 to Andover and Danbury, it is a heavy wet snow. I've seen a few of those. I bet Gene does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3k NAM is pretty nice for Brian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Exit 18 will be the magic line. Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Mile marker 50 never fails. Even in that awful '11-'12 winter there was like 8" of snow OTG in Feb. Nothing really in CON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Exit 18 will be the magic line. Watch. That would work for me. I am w of 18 and at 300 ft higher el Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Mile marker 50 never fails. Even in that awful '11-'12 winter there was like 8" of snow OTG in Feb. Nothing really in CON. yes that is sometimes true. the retention differences from just n and w of CON can be remarkable. Mile marker 50 is exit 19 yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Edit: Those phuckers have it blanked out it appears. That's day 2 of that. $$$$$$$$$$$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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