dryslot Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: does this look like a situation where a trend colder as we get closer or warmer? A more amplified solution is going to want to cut further west, So it would be a warmer outcome just with that as the winds would be more out of the SSW, Now if the primary ends up further east or SE before the secondary develops, The airmass is still marginal but looks like for some it would still support some frozen precip in the interior, Where is the 1040mb high in que when you need it.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 So maybe it depends on whether the blocking is really getting going enough to force Southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Norluns are typically interim solutions. I fully expect this to morph into a full blown cutter or Miller B. If the latter, hopefully it develops in time for eastern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 The 12z Euro did not have a norlun, It was more of a inside runner this run with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Norluns are typically interim solutions. I fully expect this to morph into a full blown cutter or Miller B. If the latter, hopefully it develops in time for eastern areas. Gonna be a lot of huggers this season, west is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, dryslot said: A more amplified solution is going to want to cut further west, So it would be a warmer outcome just with that as the winds would be more out of the SSW, Now if the primary ends up further east or SE before the secondary develops, The airmass is still marginal but looks like for some it would still support some frozen precip in the interior, Where is the 1040mb high in que when you need it.............. Pattern isn’t conducive to cutters. We’ve seen many solutions with deep systems in the plains, and yet ultimately by the time they get to us they’re sliding under 40N. Don’t fear an early bloomer with a - - NAO. As I see it now, issue is related to airmass and climatology. Best cold displaced to the west. For many this looks like a battle of strong dynamics vs stale airmass. Too early for details but rain to snow is highest chances for bulk of us imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Pattern isn’t conducive to cutters. We’ve seen many solutions with deep systems in the plains, and yet ultimately by the time they get to us they’re sliding under 40N. Don’t fear an early bloomer with a - - NAO. As I see it now, issue is related to airmass and climatology. Best cold displaced to the west. For many this looks like a battle of strong dynamics vs stale airmass. Too early for details but rain to snow is highest chances for bulk of us imo. Well I really don’t classify a primary low running up the Hudson river valley as being a cutter, One that tracks thru MI yes, But whatever the case may be, That airmass is marginal, And the coastal areas would have trouble even if this ends up hugging.Interior, A different story, But this won’t resolve one way or the other for several more cycles, The look at H5 has been different ea run so far with different outcomes, And the Norlun idea I think transitions more into a SLP as we move further in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 Map in clown range is tasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Well I really don’t classify a primary low running up the Hudson river valley as being a cutter, One that tracks thru MI yes, But whatever the case may be, That airmass is marginal, And the coastal areas would have trouble even if this ends up hugging. Interior, A different story, But this won’t resolve one way or the other for several more cycles, The look at H5 has been different ea run so far with different outcomes, And the Norlun idea I think transitions more into a SLP as we move further in time. Agree in general. The high confidence call is the pattern is incredibly amped. Incredibly amped patterns produce very intense systems that can “create their own cold”, if you will....And given what I outlined above, this system is likely to be to our south/east. That’s how I see this from a high level perspective right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 In the Pope’s touch we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Benedict isn't pope any more. Maybe need a new handle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 26 minutes ago, rimetree said: Benedict isn't pope any more. Maybe need a new handle? Immediate past pope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Yeah, He may be slipping a little............... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Map in clown range is tasty Which clown map? Speaking of maps.....this is looking pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Pope gone wild? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Premature disrobing to gfs’s son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gonna be a lot of huggers this season, west is best. Doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doubt that. Charts favor east yes but my take sees good sub jet without monster -epo/+pna keeping tracks close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Charts favor east yes but my take sees good sub jet without monster -epo/+pna keeping tracks close by. Maybe you dnt get porked like 4 yrs ago, but dnt think w NE will be the focus. I think 06-07 is the only weak el nino to target w NE, but it also wasn't nearly as modoki. 1977-1978 is nearly a perfect analog ENSO and QBO wise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe you dnt get porked like 4 yrs ago, but dnt think w NE will be the focus. I think 06-07 is the only weak el nino to target w NE, but it also wasn't nearly as modoki. 1977-1978 is nearly a perfect analog ENSO and QBO wise. Hope no 78 spring though. I see March rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe you dnt get porked like 4 yrs ago, but dnt think w NE will be the focus. I think 06-07 is the only weak el nino to target w NE, but it also wasn't nearly as modoki. 1977-1978 is nearly a perfect analog ENSO and QBO wise. I’m actually favoring the interior slightly but we’ll see. Regardless, it will be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Still looks good after the first few days of December on guidance. Looks like it could be real active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Active in Dec, Means..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Active in Dec, Means..................... Must be nice to live in Maine...sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Must be nice to live in Maine...sigh. We just start sooner before you catch up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Holy crap, my friend and fellow coach Ennis retired to Pittsburgh NH. She said she went there and loved it, loves winter. She is in winter heaven now. Nice -26 C 850 on the Euro, lots of -23 even down here on the 18z Euro Gonna smoke many types of records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Still looks good after the first few days of December on guidance. Looks like it could be real active. 12/05 most always seems to be a favorable time, and the 18z GFS may be starting to zero in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 12/05 most always seems to be a favorable time, and the 18z GFS may be starting to zero in on that. I’ll be in FL. It better wait till after the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 24 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 12/05 most always seems to be a favorable time, and the 18z GFS may be starting to zero in on that. Over the years, That date has yielded some good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 42 minutes ago, dryslot said: Over the years, That date has yielded some good ones. Was the Jim Cantore Worcester thundersnow storm on that date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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